I'll Have Another's value as a stallion if he sweeps the Triple Crown

[Calzone Lord]

I've heard people saying I'll Have Another would be worth more as a stallion prospect than Bodemeister or Creative Cause if he won the Triple Crown.

I giggled at this ... but it seems like a lot of people believe this and maybe I'm wildly underestimating what a Belmont win would do for his stud value?

Would a Belmont win really drive his stud value higher than that of Bode and CC?

Keep in mind -- Creative Cause is by Giant's Causeway out of a Grade 1 winning millionaire race mare (Dam took the Apple Blossom when Ashado bombed) Creative Cause was a precocious 2yo who won his debut going 5fs with a huge figure. He was BC Juvie placed. And he's trained by Mike Harrington ... who looks like Arthur Wendell or Janet Del Castillo compared to guys like Baffert and O'Neill.

Bodemeister is by Empire Maker out of a super talented Storm Cat mare who won her debut in a stakes races and took a Grade 3 second-time out. Bodemeister's 2nd dam is a multiple Graded Stakes winner by A. P, Indy out of a Roberto mare.

With I'll Have Another -- you've got a son of Flower Alley who was an $11,000 yearling ... and even though he worked fairly fast at an OBS 2yo sale -- he sold for peanuts again. Silver Charm and Skip Away were both OBS cheapies...great horses, but terrible sires.

Someone on Pace Advantage said I'll Have Another will be worth $80 million if he wins the Belmont. If that's even 1/4th true -- we live in a world gone mad.

[richard]

If you bother to look past the first generation of the pedigrees you'll see that I'll Have Another has a solid pedigree from a deep family through the years.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by richard

If you bother to look past the first generation of the pedigrees you'll see that I'll Have Another has a solid pedigree from a deep family through the years.

It's a nice cheap distance pedigree.

However, it's not a desirable pedigree for a stallion like the sensational ones that Bode and Creative Cause have.



The dam was 1-for-1 and the 2nd dam was a useful horse who finished up at Fort Erie.

The last seven who came to the Belmont with a shot at the Triple Crown (Big Brown, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, War Emblem, Charismatic, Real Quiet, Silver Charm) -- obviously FC was a gelding and Big Brown first crop are only 2yos -- but the other five make a pretty shabby collection of stallions.

I'd have to think Bode and Creative Cause would have a ton more appeal regardless of what happens in the Belmont.

Flower Alley stands for $7,500 right now. How much bump might he get from being the first to sire a triple crown winner in 34 years?

[Indian Charlie]

Real Quiet was at least useful.

But yeah, anyone who thinks IHA will be worth more than Bode is using pretty simple minded thinking.

At least in the long run, it's pretty certain Bode will be the more valuable stallion.

[Calzone Lord]

I think Creative Cause might have the most appeal of any of them (at least to me) ...Bode included.

Hansen has a real bang-up female family.

* Hansen's dam was claimed for $5,000 by Dr. Kendall Hansen. Made her final start at Mountaineer.

* Hansen's 2nd dam routinely ran for $5,000 claiming tags at River Downs.

* Hansen's 3rd dam was a 0-for-11 Arkansas bred.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

At least in the long run, it's pretty certain Bode will be the more valuable stallion.

I'd like to hear people like Cannon Shell, ParisX etc's take on this... as they would have a better gauge on the market for these horses as stallion prospects.

[Danzig]

There is no way of knowing which of these horses will succeed as a stallion in the long run. Impeccable breeding can get you a plugged nickel. On trck brilliance can get you a smarty jones.
I have to think being (if he wins) the first tc winner in a generation would be a huge draw. Whether it lasts is another story. Also, much like our emblem when war emblem had his big year, flower alley will get some good mares...whether he becomes our emblem nd fades into obscurity is another question mark right now.

[Left Bank]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I've heard people saying I'll Have Another would be worth more as a stallion prospect than Bodemeister or Creative Cause if he won the Triple Crown.

I giggled at this ... but it seems like a lot of people believe this and maybe I'm wildly underestimating what a Belmont win would do for his stud value?

Would a Belmont win really drive his stud value higher than that of Bode and CC?

Keep in mind -- Creative Cause is by Giant's Causeway out of a Grade 1 winning millionaire race mare (Dam took the Apple Blossom when Ashado bombed) Creative Cause was a precocious 2yo who won his debut going 5fs with a huge figure. He was BC Juvie placed. And he's trained by Mike Harrington ... who looks like Arthur Wendell or Janet Del Castillo compared to guys like Baffert and O'Neill.

Bodemeister is by Empire Maker out of a super talented Storm Cat mare who won her debut in a stakes races and took a Grade 3 second-time out. Bodemeister's 2nd dam is a multiple Graded Stakes winner by A. P, Indy out of a Roberto mare.

With I'll Have Another -- you've got a son of Flower Alley who was an $11,000 yearling ... and even though he worked fairly fast at an OBS 2yo sale -- he sold for peanuts again. Silver Charm and Skip Away were both OBS cheapies...great horses, but terrible sires.

Someone on Pace Advantage said I'll Have Another will be worth $80 million if he wins the Belmont. If that's even 1/4th true -- we live in a world gone mad.

So if the other two are so good,and both have been whooped by IHA twice,what does that say about the other two if they were so regally bred??

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Left Bank

So if the other two are so good,and both have been whooped by IHA twice,what does that say about the other two if they were so regally bred??

They haven't been "whooped" by IHA. Bodemeister has twice been edged by him -- and Creative Cause was beaten only a nose by him at 9 furlongs in the SA Derby.

The vast majority of racing in this country occurs at 9 furlongs or less.

Horses like Skip Away, Formal Gold, and Silver Charm beat the living hell out of horses like Distorted Humor and Arch.

They weren't bred to be attractive stallion prospects. Invasor beat Bernardini -- and everyone knew Invasor was going to be a terrible stallion. Bernardini was regally bred and had a monster edge.

The best stallions like Storm Cat, Mr. Prospector, and Danzig are typically under accomplished and fragile speed balls who can barely stay a mile.

Distorted Humor was a sprinter -- and when he would step up and take on a Skip Away or Formal Gold he would get beaten to a pulp. Elusive Quality was a sensational performer sprinting -- he failed to win a dirt route after repeated tries.

The top stamina sires like A. P, Indy, Street Cry, Arch, and Awesome Again are always regally bred.

[pba1817]

What will his value be if he sweeps Triple Crown, adds some late season G'1s and topples the BC Classic?

The older horses sure aren't much to get excited about this year... I can see this happening.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by pba1817

What will his value be if he sweeps Triple Crown, adds some late season G'1s and topples the BC Classic?

The older horses sure aren't much to get excited about this year... I can see this happening.

Whirlaway is the only horse in history to officially sweep the Triple Crown Series and win the Travers Stakes.

So -- that would be a grand slam. As obviously would the Breeders Cup Classic on his home track at Santa Anita.

However, at the end of the day, this horse will never have a fashionable stallion pedigree. He will never have "looks" ... and if I'll Have Another really did have looks ... he wouldn't have only fetched $11,000 as a yearling at auction -- and re-sell again for peanuts after his under-tack work at OBS where he showed respectable speed.

Handicapping the chances of any horse as a sire is always going to be a guessing game -- regardless of what anyone says. That's why I think you have to take the 'a chain is only as strong as its weakest link' approach. A horse like a Bernardini or A. P. Indy was always a safer bet because he had no weak links. Horses like Skip Away and Silver Charm were two of the best race horses I've seen since 1990 ... and they both had unfashionable breeding and sold cheaply at OBS 2yo auctions like I'll Have Another did.

I suppose if factors like his looks and pedigree are neglected because of race accomplishments -- it's possible he could demand WAY more money than I think is reasonable. Doesn't mean he can't be a good sire either...but the odds aren't as much in your favor.

[Danzig]

I think that was my point. He will command far more than what is reasonable....the trick is what happens after the faols start dropping, hitting sales, etc.

Fupeg for instance has impeccable looks, breeding, and won the biggest race in north america, but is perceived as a failure at stud. They can have everything go their way (which is why i mentioned plugged nickel earlier) and be a dismal stallion. Id have to think if you had to bet thok youd go with bode ahead of iha for who will succeed. But therea no giuarantees...look at tapit, who thought hed turn out like he did?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Whirlaway is the only horse in history to officially sweep the Triple Crown Series and win the Travers Stakes.

So -- that would be a grand slam. As obviously would the Breeders Cup Classic on his home track at Santa Anita.

However, at the end of the day, this horse will never have a fashionable stallion pedigree. He will never have "looks" ... and if I'll Have Another really did have looks ... he wouldn't have only fetched $11,000 as a yearling at auction -- and re-sell again for peanuts after his under-tack work at OBS where he showed respectable speed.

Handicapping the chances of any horse as a sire is always going to be a guessing game -- regardless of what anyone says. That's why I think you have to take the 'a chain is only as strong as its weakest link' approach. A horse like a Bernardini or A. P. Indy was always a safer bet because he had no weak links. Horses like Skip Away and Silver Charm were two of the best race horses I've seen since 1990 ... and they both had unfashionable breeding and sold cheaply at OBS 2yo auctions like I'll Have Another did.

I suppose if factors like his looks and pedigree are neglected because of race accomplishments -- it's possible he could demand WAY more money than I think is reasonable. Doesn't mean he can't be a good sire either...but the odds aren't as much in your favor.

In my years of following this stuff, I've noticed that there is one thing than can offset a weak pedigree when it comes to making a stallion.

That would be high speed with a great turn of foot. Accompanied by the ability to be really good at a young age. This could easily explain low-bred horses like Candy Ride, Indian Charlie, Slew, etc. becoming top level stallions.

Skip Away really didn't show blazing speed until later in his career. I think the only horse I was badly off on when assessing his stallion potential was Gentlemen.

Barbaro too I guess, but that's different. I thought he was going to be the next Seattle Slew or AP Indy as a sire, when I saw him as a 2yo.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Elusive Quality was a sensational performer sprinting -- he failed to win a dirt route after repeated tries.

Elusive Quality never ran a race around two turns on the main track.

He won his only start beyond a mile, in an 8.5f allowance at Belmont in his third career start.

He was also 2nd in a 8f allowance and well beaten after setting a scorching pace in the Met Mile in his only other main track starts beyond 7f.

He may still hold the course record for a mile on turf at Belmont, winning the Poker in 1:31 and change.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Elusive Quality never ran a race around two turns on the main track.

He won his only start beyond a mile, in an 8.5f allowance at Belmont in his third career start.

He was also 2nd in a 8f allowance and well beaten after setting a scorching pace in the Met Mile in his only other main track starts beyond 7f.

He may still hold the course record for a mile on turf at Belmont, winning the Poker in 1:31 and change.

You're right. I pulled up his form and had him mixed up.

[pba1817]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

You're right. I pulled up his form and had him mixed up.

Based on what is shown here, Elusive Quality looked like a run off sprinter who if he didn't have the lead at the top of the lane, was all done. Never won more than a G3 is surprising as well. Those GP Beyers jump off the page, which GP Beyers still do to this day for early speed. For some reason I thought EQ was better on the track than this...

I wouldn't rule out any price for him at this point. You could have him go for $100 million and look up in 5 years and see that Meydan is named Khalifa Downs.