ontheoutsides' thread of Steve's Best Value horses

[ontheoutside]

only 8 bets today
3rd race no value bet
10th scratched
so bet 480
got back
1st #3 winner 1200 & 430 120 & 86 for me 206 total
4th #1 placed 830 166 for me 166
bet 480 got back 372

MINUS 108 for day

minus610 for week
oh well maybe better next week

[Kasept]

Good grief.. Why would you not bet Royal Skip in the 10th? You cannot play like this without reacting to circumstances. You missed exactly the kind of score my handicapping approach lives on.

Originally Posted by Kasept

10th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (Super)

Most Likely: #11 Irish Bride 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 SCR
Next Best: #7 Royal Skip 30-1 WON
Super Add: #15 SCR

The scratch of (#3) Smart Rose (originally Best Value) left Royal Skip as an utterly betable Value Play (still 16-1 despite the reduced field). You missed a $33.40/$12.60 hit which with the way you're approaching things adds $586.00 ($334.00 & $252.00) to your bankroll. And as an FYI... the way Gales suggested you bet ($40 to win/$20 to place) would have produced $794.00 ($668.00 & $126.00) in mutuels.

I can't believe you're falling for this nonsense. Either this guy is a troll or he's utterly retarded. Stop it.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I can't believe you're falling for this nonsense. Either this guy is a troll or he's utterly retarded. Stop it.

Think so? I get the impression, and from PMs, that he's trying to play and learn. Having had a lucrative first week personally, I'd like to see him do well.. but he has to be at least mildly reactive to situations to adjust and create as needed... Fact is, with even the most simple adjustments, like the one above and with Gales' logical W-PL bet amounts, he'd be well ahead after Week 1.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Think so? I get the impression, and from PMs, that he's trying to play and learn.

Sumitas would be proud.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Think so? I get the impression, and from PMs, that he's trying to play and learn. Having had a lucrative first week personally, I'd like to see him do well.. but he has to be at least mildly reactive to situations to adjust and create as needed... Fact is, with even the most simple adjustments, like the one above and with Gales' logical W-PL bet amounts, he'd be well ahead after Week 1.

I don't think there is a handicapper in the country that could show a profit betting 2/3 of your BR in the place pool and 1/3 in the win pool on vlaue picks.
The idea on a value pick is for the horse to win if the most likely horse fails to win, it is not for the value pick to run 2nd.

The idea behind a value pick ontheoutside is to catch those nice high win prices. Too many times when a longshot wins and a heavy favorite runs second , you don't get rewarded eneough in the place pool for beating the favorite!!!

Yesterday if you had bet the next likely horse that Steve had posted and folowed my method of 40 W 20 P you would have won an additional $208.

The additonal $200 dollars is over and additional 300+ % to your bankroll. Please tell me you understand where my math is coming. If you don't understand the math my friend , then please please don't bet the horses.

Are you up in Saratoga Ontheoutside?? If you are stop by the barbuque and i'm sure they can show you on paper what I mean , Steve is very busy but maybe BTW can take the time to go over the math with you - good luck

[ontheoutside]

steve
ill give you my reason why i didnt have the 7 horse in the last raceyesterday
you seemed with your last post about me betting your value picks that you were a little upset that i didnt have it
i bet the card at 1230 in the afternnon
i use your picks
put them in
then 6 days a week
from 1 to 5 and a hour drive home because of going home traffic
im in rehab recouperating from double knnee repalcement and learning how to walk again
i dont watch them on o t b
i come home
do what i have to do
and then i go to calracing .com and hit each horse you have for your value picks and watch them
i have to time or way to bet anything else
im rehabbing all f in day
so please
dont take i personal that i dont do something that i should if i could
im doing it for fun
but with everyone calling me everything under the sun
its becoming unfun
take care and i hope everyone crushes them

[ALostTexan]

This is one of the most bizzare storylines I have seen on this forum...

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

GET AN ONLINE ACCOUNT....

[gales0678]

until you are better , don't play for your own good. the game requires adjustments due to late scratches. if you don't have web access during the day and can't be on track or at otb, my advice is to not play.

hope you get through the rehab successfully

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by ontheoutside

steve
im doing it for fun
but with everyone calling me everything under the sun
its becoming unfuntake care and i hope everyone crushes them

It would be an understatement to say that this isn't a forum for the thinned-skinned. What fun would it be if we couldn't ridicule others to make us feel better about ourselves. What would be the point of living?

[ontheoutside]

beleive me
i love when they **** about me
esp coach pants
seems hes got alot of human waste on his mind
better keep him at arms length
my hand is going back and forth to decribe him
but hes funny got to give him that
cant pick a horse for s it but
what are u gonna do?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by ontheoutside

beleive me
i love when they **** about me
esp coach pants
seems hes got alot of human waste on his mind
better keep him at arms length
my hand is going back and forth to decribe him
but hes funny got to give him that
cant pick a horse for s it but
what are u gonna do?

Talk about throwing rocks in a glass house.

Oh the troll let his guard down.

bahahaah!!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ontheoutside

steve
ill give you my reason why i didnt have the 7 horse in the last raceyesterday
you seemed with your last post about me betting your value picks that you were a little upset that i didnt have it
i bet the card at 1230 in the afternnon
i use your picks
put them in
then 6 days a week
from 1 to 5 and a hour drive home because of going home traffic
im in rehab recouperating from double knnee repalcement and learning how to walk again
i dont watch them on o t b
i come home
do what i have to do
and then i go to calracing .com and hit each horse you have for your value picks and watch them
i have to time or way to bet anything else
im rehabbing all f in day
so please
dont take i personal that i dont do something that i should if i could
im doing it for fun
but with everyone calling me everything under the sun
its becoming unfun
take care and i hope everyone crushes them

No one is calling you every you every name under the sun, and certainly no one means any harm. Personally, I just didn't want to see you not do as well as possible by betting blindly... There have been some very good suggestions offered up here. Keep playing but try to at least utilize Gales' suggestion of the $40/$20.

[Handicappy]

Originally Posted by Kasept

No one is calling you every you every name under the sun, and certainly no one means any harm. Personally, I just didn't want to see you not do as well as possible by betting blindly... There have been some very good suggestions offered up here. Keep playing but try to at least utilize Gales' suggestion of the $40/$20.

Steve, these blogs are not for anyone with thin skin. If you really look at responses given not just to this guy but to many others, there is a trend. Even though the greatness of this sport is that you can never, ever know for sure how a race will play, people not only work from a philosophy of certainty but criticize others who may disagree with a specific view that disagrees with theirs. I enjoy reading the views of others and learning from that. But to suggest that no one means harm when words like "retard" and worse get thrown around here regularly is a bit silly. Now I will return to my reading position. I have a thin skin. But I just wanted to offer some support to this guy who I am rather jealous of in terms of the funds he has to use. I too hope he gets well.

[skippy3481]

Handicappy you bring up an interesting point. I think more often then not though, the people that are ridiculing are actually trying to help that person. They are just going about it the wrong way. If this guy wants to play 20 win and 40 place then let him. Everyone said their piece and its up to him to either take it in, or continue playing the way he is. If he didn't want comment on his system, he shouldn't have posted that he was going to play it.

You should post more. I'll be the first to tell you I'm not an expert capper, but I learn everyday. I've learned plenty by posting who i like and having someone disagree with me on how i see a race. That's how you get better. If you approach your position as being from a novice... your far more likely to get helpful comments as opposed to being called names. Just my two cents...

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

we help cuz we care...