ontheoutsides' thread of Steve's Best Value horses

[sumitas]

Originally Posted by ninetoone

Best value in the feature today is in ALL CAPS...back up the trucks brother.

Paid $3.90 to show.

Where's my god damn pic?

[ontheoutside]

only 8 bets today
3rd race no value bet
10th scratched
so bet 480
got back
1st #3 winner 1200 & 430 120 & 86 for me 206 total
4th #1 placed 830 166 for me 166
bet 480 got back 372

MINUS 108 for day

minus610 for week
oh well maybe better next week

[Kasept]

Good grief.. Why would you not bet Royal Skip in the 10th? You cannot play like this without reacting to circumstances. You missed exactly the kind of score my handicapping approach lives on.

Originally Posted by Kasept

10th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (Super)

Most Likely: #11 Irish Bride 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 SCR
Next Best: #7 Royal Skip 30-1 WON
Super Add: #15 SCR

The scratch of (#3) Smart Rose (originally Best Value) left Royal Skip as an utterly betable Value Play (still 16-1 despite the reduced field). You missed a $33.40/$12.60 hit which with the way you're approaching things adds $586.00 ($334.00 & $252.00) to your bankroll. And as an FYI... the way Gales suggested you bet ($40 to win/$20 to place) would have produced $794.00 ($668.00 & $126.00) in mutuels.

I can't believe you're falling for this nonsense. Either this guy is a troll or he's utterly retarded. Stop it.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I can't believe you're falling for this nonsense. Either this guy is a troll or he's utterly retarded. Stop it.

Think so? I get the impression, and from PMs, that he's trying to play and learn. Having had a lucrative first week personally, I'd like to see him do well.. but he has to be at least mildly reactive to situations to adjust and create as needed... Fact is, with even the most simple adjustments, like the one above and with Gales' logical W-PL bet amounts, he'd be well ahead after Week 1.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Think so? I get the impression, and from PMs, that he's trying to play and learn.

Sumitas would be proud.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Sumitas would be proud.

I laughed..

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Think so? I get the impression, and from PMs, that he's trying to play and learn. Having had a lucrative first week personally, I'd like to see him do well.. but he has to be at least mildly reactive to situations to adjust and create as needed... Fact is, with even the most simple adjustments, like the one above and with Gales' logical W-PL bet amounts, he'd be well ahead after Week 1.

I don't think there is a handicapper in the country that could show a profit betting 2/3 of your BR in the place pool and 1/3 in the win pool on vlaue picks.
The idea on a value pick is for the horse to win if the most likely horse fails to win, it is not for the value pick to run 2nd.

The idea behind a value pick ontheoutside is to catch those nice high win prices. Too many times when a longshot wins and a heavy favorite runs second , you don't get rewarded eneough in the place pool for beating the favorite!!!

Yesterday if you had bet the next likely horse that Steve had posted and folowed my method of 40 W 20 P you would have won an additional $208.

The additonal $200 dollars is over and additional 300+ % to your bankroll. Please tell me you understand where my math is coming. If you don't understand the math my friend , then please please don't bet the horses.

Are you up in Saratoga Ontheoutside?? If you are stop by the barbuque and i'm sure they can show you on paper what I mean , Steve is very busy but maybe BTW can take the time to go over the math with you - good luck

[blackthroatedwind]

Yeah, I have lots of free time. In fact, just the other day, I was able to squeeze in a second visit to the bathroom.

[gales0678]

yeah but Andy , math can be put on the bathroom walls very easily , at the BIG A on the 2nd floor towards the clubhouse turn there are lots of numbers on the bathroom walls (i think i saw a feamle trainers's# there too) , i'm sure the nyra wouldn't mind seeing a few numbers on the bathroom walls up there either if it would help out one of their new loyal customers

[Kasept]

Was curious.

Using Gales' $40 W/$20 PL, here's a list of the 'Best Value' W's or PL's (also added 'Next Best' horses moved up as alternates when original Best Value horse scratched)...

Possible 55 races.. $60 each. $3,300 investment.


WEEK 1:

2nd-Brave Victory (P) $45.00
5th-Lookin At Her (W-PL) $228.00 + $51.00
6th-Jazz Nation (W-PL) $134.00 + $40.00
WED: $498.00


2nd-Stunning Electra (W-PL) $232.00 + $61.00
4th-Vladimira (PL) $57.00
5th-Mine All Mine (W-PL) $122.00 + $43.00
6th-Easy Ashley (PL) $61.00
7th-Visionaire (W-PL) $138.00 + $42.00
9th-Officer Ipod (PL) $34.00
10th-King Mobay (W-PL) $188 + $47.00
THURS: $1,025.00


5th-Jump It (W-PL) $124.00 + $33.00
9th-Sweet Bama Breeze (PL) $55.00
FRI: $212.00


9th-Copper State (PL) $58.00
SAT: $58.00


6th-Pumpkin Shell (PL) $118.00
10th-Macho Again (W-PL) $386.00 + $53.00
SUN: $557.00


1st-Lorccan (W-PL) $240.00 + $43.00
2nd-Royal Skip (W-PL) $668.00 + $126.00
MON: $1,077.00


TOTAL: $3,427.00 (+127.00)

Using $20 W/$40 PL yields $2,946.00 (-354.00)

[gales0678]

steve sometimes beginers also like to say they "cashed" a ticket as the above proves the win 2x over the place 2x yields a profit vs a loss

but he "cashed" 8 more times over the week using his method , the beginers i see at the track just love going to the window and cashing tickets , and they don't pay as much attention to bankroll detail as say a pro like Scav or GPK -

ontheoutside please change your play from 20 w and 40 p , to 40w and 20 p, you will not "cash" as many tickets at the window , but, the ones you do cash will be worth more - hope this helps u

[jms62]

Originally Posted by gales0678

steve sometimes beginers also like to say they "cashed" a ticket as the above proves the win 2x over the place 2x yields a profit vs a loss

but he "cashed" 8 more times over the week using his method , the beginers i see at the track just love going to the window and cashing tickets , and they don't pay as much attention to bankroll detail as say a pro like Scav or GPK -

ontheoutside please change your play from 20 w and 40 p , to 40w and 20 p, you will not "cash" as many tickets at the window , but, the ones you do cash will be worth more - hope this helps u

Or better yet how about 40 to win and a 4x1 5.00 backup exacta.

[ontheoutside]

steve
ill give you my reason why i didnt have the 7 horse in the last raceyesterday
you seemed with your last post about me betting your value picks that you were a little upset that i didnt have it
i bet the card at 1230 in the afternnon
i use your picks
put them in
then 6 days a week
from 1 to 5 and a hour drive home because of going home traffic
im in rehab recouperating from double knnee repalcement and learning how to walk again
i dont watch them on o t b
i come home
do what i have to do
and then i go to calracing .com and hit each horse you have for your value picks and watch them
i have to time or way to bet anything else
im rehabbing all f in day
so please
dont take i personal that i dont do something that i should if i could
im doing it for fun
but with everyone calling me everything under the sun
its becoming unfun
take care and i hope everyone crushes them

[ALostTexan]

This is one of the most bizzare storylines I have seen on this forum...

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

GET AN ONLINE ACCOUNT....

[gales0678]

until you are better , don't play for your own good. the game requires adjustments due to late scratches. if you don't have web access during the day and can't be on track or at otb, my advice is to not play.

hope you get through the rehab successfully

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by ontheoutside

steve
im doing it for fun
but with everyone calling me everything under the sun
its becoming unfuntake care and i hope everyone crushes them

It would be an understatement to say that this isn't a forum for the thinned-skinned. What fun would it be if we couldn't ridicule others to make us feel better about ourselves. What would be the point of living?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ontheoutside

steve
ill give you my reason why i didnt have the 7 horse in the last raceyesterday
you seemed with your last post about me betting your value picks that you were a little upset that i didnt have it
i bet the card at 1230 in the afternnon
i use your picks
put them in
then 6 days a week
from 1 to 5 and a hour drive home because of going home traffic
im in rehab recouperating from double knnee repalcement and learning how to walk again
i dont watch them on o t b
i come home
do what i have to do
and then i go to calracing .com and hit each horse you have for your value picks and watch them
i have to time or way to bet anything else
im rehabbing all f in day
so please
dont take i personal that i dont do something that i should if i could
im doing it for fun
but with everyone calling me everything under the sun
its becoming unfun
take care and i hope everyone crushes them

No one is calling you every you every name under the sun, and certainly no one means any harm. Personally, I just didn't want to see you not do as well as possible by betting blindly... There have been some very good suggestions offered up here. Keep playing but try to at least utilize Gales' suggestion of the $40/$20.