Curlin to be m/l fav

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Yeah, I often hear people claiming Real Quiet broke the RAN Curse, he had RAN in dam's dam line, not in dam's sire line. Barbaro was the first horse to break it...there are about 8-9 horses this year who have "The Curse"...we'll see if one of them overcomes it.

My top pick is one of them. Eek!

[slotdirt]

Without having a minute to comb through pedigrees, who does have RAN this year?

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Exactly. What most people don't seem to recongnize is that all dosage points mean at this point is how close in your pedigree you are to the old time stallions. They have become completely obsolete.

Simply not true...Roman and his folks add new CDR's as they perform as stallions...there are many horses this year with impressive DP numbers.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Perhaps, but it's just another angle that hasn't really been broken yet. Maybe coincidence...

The problem is getting worse and worse as new stallions aren't added. As slotdirt just pointed out a horse could easily win the Derby with less than 16 points and then later qualify when a new stallion is added. To use them at the time of the race doesn't work.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Without having a minute to comb through pedigrees, who does have RAN this year?

A few with RAN Curse
Chelokee
Great Hunter
Hard Spun
Sam P
Scat Daddy
Stormello
XChanger

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

The problem is getting worse and worse as new stallions aren't added. As slotdirt just pointed out a horse could easily win the Derby with less than 16 points and then later qualify when a new stallion is added. To use them at the time of the race doesn't work.

Again...misinformation!
Only 5 horses had 16 or fewer points in DP at time of race, 3 had exactly 16. Stallions ARE made CDR's when they deserve it...same as always! Sunday Silence had 16 pts when he won...he has 36 now but is listed as having 16.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I think there have been others who had fewer than 16 dosage points win then get their dosage points bumped up following the race. Real Quiet comes to mind.

Strike the Gold broke the rule when he won with a 9.00 DI. This has since been changed for him to a 2.60. I'm going to Ocala on Wednesday to see a colt by Johannesburg out of a full sister to Strike the Gold.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Again...misinformation!
Only 5 horses had 16 or fewer points in DP at time of race, 3 had exactly 16. Stallions ARE made CDR's when they deserve it...same as always! Sunday Silence had 16 pts when he won...he has 36 now but is listed as having 16.

For those that would like to see:

http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/c...rby_dosage.htm

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I think that the Dosage Index is more important than the Dosage Profile. Over the last decade, I've seen horses with low DIs have had a relatively low number of points in the profile.

Question: where can I find the DIs and DPs for this year's Derby contenders? I would love to see these figures before I receive Progressive Handicapping's Derby Zone. (It's a fun read, although the historical profile is changing each year.)

Dr Roman's site...http://www.chef-de-race.com/

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Simply not true...Roman and his folks add new CDR's as they perform as stallions...there are many horses this year with impressive DP numbers.

Give me a break, Storm Cat and AP Indy aren't even included! With their grandsons at stud it has gotten totally useless.

[Sightseek]

I can't decide which I want more....Street Sense to put to sleep the juvie jinx or this RAN curse thing....

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I think that the Dosage Index is more important than the Dosage Profile. Over the last decade, I've seen horses with low DIs have had a relatively low number of points in the profile.

Question: where can I find the DIs and DPs for this year's Derby contenders? I would love to see these figures before I receive Progressive Handicapping's Derby Zone. (It's a fun read, although the historical profile is changing each year.)

http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/c...s_expanded.htm

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Again...misinformation!
Only 5 horses had 16 or fewer points in DP at time of race, 3 had exactly 16. Stallions ARE made CDR's when they deserve it...same as always! Sunday Silence had 16 pts when he won...he has 36 now but is listed as having 16.

What misinformation did I give? I said a horse could win the Derby with less than 16 dosage points and later when another stallion in their pedigree is added would have more than 16 dosage points and meet the criteria. That is 100% correct.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I can't decide which I want more....Street Sense to put to sleep the juvie jinx or this RAN curse thing....

As far as I'm concerned, the RAN curse has been broken... I didn't toss Barbaro last year because of it, either. I just didn't see a better horse in the Derby last year. To me, he was the clear winner. I don't see that this year, unfortunately.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I can't decide which I want more....Street Sense to put to sleep the juvie jinx or this RAN curse thing....

The RAN thing is so ludicrous that I'm not even going to bother arguing it. They might as well come up with a curse for horses that ran February 12th with blinkers off and first lasix not being able to win the Derby since it would be about as signficant.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I think there have been others who had fewer than 16 dosage points win then get their dosage points bumped up following the race. Real Quiet comes to mind.

No, Real Quiet had a DP = 13-2-7-0-0 when he won for 22 points, he now has 14-12-12-0-0.

[slotdirt]

Sorry, his index was over 4.00. Isn't that another barometer?

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

The RAN thing is so ludicrous that I'm not even going to bother arguing it. They might as well come up with a curse for horses that ran February 12th with blinkers off and first lasix not being able to win the Derby since it would be about as signficant.

There is no real argument to it...despite the huge success that RAN has had as the sire line for Derby winners, he has had only one horse (Barbaro) win the Derby with the dam sire-line tracing to him...this despite the huge number of successful broodmare sires he's produced. I don't believe in curses...that's just the name given to this fact...but it is what it is! If you want to examine possible reasons, I refer to the research done regarding the LH+ theories and the theories that contend that a horse will get speed from sire and stamina from dam...if that is true, and I believe it is, then a "B" CDR like RAN would figure to be better suited in the sire line for distance racing.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Sorry, his index was over 4.00. Isn't that another barometer?

I stopped using the 4.00/1.00 guidelines a few years ago, Dr Roman himself has stated that due to recent breeding practices, those numbers are relatively weak...I do look at the points in DP however.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Sorry, his index was over 4.00. Isn't that another barometer?

Yes, but Giacomo's was a 4.33 and he won.

Here are this year's dual qualifiers:

Any Given Saturday
Circular Quay
Great Hunter
Liquidity
Nobiz
Scat Daddy
Stormello
Street Sense