Derby Favorite

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I'm kind of surprised everyone thinks the favorite is going to be like 5/1.

It's very possible, especially if Pharoah takes to the track, that he goes off 2/1 or lower.

5/1 seems a bit long but if AP wins easy this weekend as expected it would be like

3/1 on Dortmund
4/1 on AP
8/1 on Carpe Diem and then double digits and rising fast on everyone else.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

5/1 seems a bit long but if AP wins easy this weekend as expected it would be like

3/1 on Dortmund
4/1 on AP
8/1 on Carpe Diem and then double digits and rising fast on everyone else.

If AP runs as expected this weekend, it's hard to see Dortmund being favored over him.

I don't even know how CD is playable.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

If AP runs as expected this weekend, it's hard to see Dortmund being favored over him.

I don't even know how CD is playable.

I would imagine an unbeaten, 17 hand tall giant of a horse who is likely to get a ton of pre race hype, who crushed in california, is likely to get a bit more play...well see I guess.

[pucknut]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

If AP runs as expected this weekend, it's hard to see Dortmund being favored over him.

I don't even know how CD is playable.

Wow! thats a bold statement given CD'S resume
I hope more of the Pharoh worshippers and the soccer moms share that view
6-1 or higher ill take it all day long

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by pucknut

Wow! thats a bold statement given CD'S resume
I hope more of the Pharoh worshippers and the soccer moms share that view
6-1 or higher ill take it all day long

Playable for the win that is.

I think there are several horses that look better than CD.

[ateamstupid]

To factor in the Derby, Carpe Diem would have to magically get 5-6 lengths faster basically overnight and adjust to a chaotic 20-horse scramble after getting two of the easiest trips you will ever see in his preps. Anything below 10-1 on him would be a massive underlay.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

To factor in the Derby, Carpe Diem would have to magically get 5-6 lengths faster basically overnight and adjust to a chaotic 20-horse scramble after getting two of the easiest trips you will ever see in his preps. Anything below 10-1 on him would be a massive underlay.

Yeah man, I just don't see in him what people are so in love about.


I think his BCJ performance is pretty telling.

[pucknut]

CD played the schedule did nothing wrong
are we using this weeks beyers as a barometerif so does anyone really think frosted is better?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by pucknut

CD played the schedule did nothing wrong
are we using this weeks beyers as a barometerif so does anyone really think frosted is better?

Sure do. Frosted not only ran faster than Carpe Diem, he did so with a much more taxing trip. There is no easier trip in dirt racing than stalking cheap speed in the two-path with no one challenging you from the outside. Saying CD "did nothing wrong" is basically giving him points for not tripping over himself and losing an unlosable race. He's a nice enough horse, but the likelihood of him improving a half-dozen or so lengths while encountering the toughest trip of his life is very slim.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by pucknut

CD played the schedule did nothing wrong
are we using this weeks beyers as a barometerif so does anyone really think frosted is better?

I don't use those figs at all when figuring out who I like.

Flat out Frosted was more impressive than CD.

[pucknut]

keeneland is a brand new track
what formed the baseline for the figures?
CD picked his route to the derby won both races easily
the derby will be the third start off the layoff
we know he loves keeneland ky lets see ie he loves louisville ky too
we know racing on different surfaces and traveling to different tracks is no issue
gotta love horse racing different opinions abound and we get to settle our differences at the window
losers shred ticket like confetti
winners smile and wallets fatten

[blackthroatedwind]

The mad love for Carpe Diem is pretty puzzling, except that it's hard to find an actually responsible positive opinion of his chances in the KY Derby. The best idea is some version of " he looks like a really good horse to me " which I guess makes sense since he has never done anything to suggest he is a serious player in this Derby, and plenty to suggest otherwise.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The mad love for Carpe Diem is pretty puzzling, except that it's hard to find an actually responsible positive opinion of his chances in the KY Derby. The best idea is some version of " he looks like a really good horse to me " which I guess makes sense since he has never done anything to suggest he is a serious player in this Derby, and plenty to suggest otherwise.

Yeah, and where is there any potential upside to this colt? Turf??

I just don't get it.

[pucknut]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The mad love for Carpe Diem is pretty puzzling, except that it's hard to find an actually responsible positive opinion of his chances in the KY Derby. The best idea is some version of " he looks like a really good horse to me " which I guess makes sense since he has never done anything to suggest he is a serious player in this Derby, and plenty to suggest otherwise.

how about CD is regally bred
his breeding screams he will easily get the derby distance
in all of his victories margin is at least 2.5 lengths
has shown the ability to travel and adapt to different race tracks

[senator L]

I can see why lots of people like him 5 4 1 0
(2) gr 1's and gr 2 win, great breeding, good connections
has won from on and off the pace.
His speed figures are on the low side though
top (5) horse imo

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by pucknut

how about CD is regally bred
his breeding screams he will easily get the derby distance
in all of his victories margin is at least 2.5 lengths
has shown the ability to travel and adapt to different race tracks

lots of horses are well bred, have the pedigree, and win by good margins and travel well.
but, are they fast enough to keep up with the fastest?

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

To factor in the Derby, Carpe Diem would have to magically get 5-6 lengths faster basically overnight and adjust to a chaotic 20-horse scramble after getting two of the easiest trips you will ever see in his preps. Anything below 10-1 on him would be a massive underlay.

i don't understand this argument as everyone will be facing the same 20-horse field and traffic problems galore, why is this only problematic for CD? we all know it doesn't matter how fast your horse is, b/c in a 20-horse field nothing is guaranteed, starting with the draw.

Honestly i have never seen AP run, but Dortmund's win in the SA derby was kind of a cake walk as well, yet everyone praises the performance as life altering. My take, he was up against a field in which NOBODY closed, and nobody pressured him....he put away horses IMO have no business heading to KY.....yet he dominated, which he should have, somewhat like CD.

I think a lot of people are putting emphasis into his race 2 back against FL, especially since FL goes out and dominates the Sunland Derby by 15. Personally, i think a better horse, a horse who can close would/should have gone by Dortmund that day, i don't think FL wanted to go by.....having said that, i believe if horses are given the same chance/scenario as FL, they will go by in the derby



-bt-

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by -BT-

i don't understand this argument as everyone will be facing the same 20-horse field and traffic problems galore, why is this only problematic for CD? we all know it doesn't matter how fast your horse is, b/c in a 20-horse field nothing is guaranteed, starting with the draw.

It's potentially problematic for all 20 horses, but I think it's a bigger adjustment for horses like Carpe Diem who have never had a hair in their path their whole career.

[NTamm1215]

Carpe Diem is a slightly less talented version of Gemologist. There was great hysteria about him too.

The thing that's going to crush him is the hot pace. He has had one cupcake stalking trip after another, and his garbage time rally in the BCJ when no better than 4th best in actuality does not belie those pace concerns.

[-BT-]

what i keep hearing is that the 3rd choice horse has no shot b/c he's had unbelievably easy races.....but nobody is really providing opinions or chances of those who will be higher odds then him.

it seems like everyone thinks that the derby is AP and Dort.......then everyone else. Personally, i look at this as a 20-horse cavalry charge, and i'm looking for value. I've heard a few mention Frosted as interesting, but nobody is offering a solid opinion for the case of others

-bt-