Hard Spun and King of the Roxy

[whodey17]

Not sure if this news has been posted, but hard Spun has not worked at Churchill due to the cold weather. So he is definately out of the Bluegrass Stakes and his Derby appearance is still on hold. He is schedule to work Thursday at the earliest to see how he likes the Churchill's surface. If he likes the surface then off to the Derby, if he doesnt then it is the Coolmore and then the Preakness. Good luck to Hard Spun.

King of the Roxy is not going to go to the Derby. He is being pointed to the Preakness.

[ArlJim78]

I think now that the objective has been acheived, namely taking Hard Spun out of the Blue Grass, it is a near certainty that he will go in the derby.

[whodey17]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I think now that the objective has been acheived, namely taking Hard Spun out of the Blue Grass, it is a near certainty that he will go in the derby.

That is how I read it as well.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I think now that the objective has been acheived, namely taking Hard Spun out of the Blue Grass, it is a near certainty that he will go in the derby.

I'm still trying to interpret the trainerspeak of the whole thing. The good news is (a) he ran a dynamic mile and an eighth race last out, (b) got 3 good starts in at 3, and (c) will be coming into the race off a 6 week layoff, which these days is almost normal, so despite my pleas doesn't HAVE to be in the Blue Grass.

Someone ought to make a list of all the derby hopefuls going 2 or less preps and/or having a long layoff. Think this year will break conventional wisdom in some ways.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by philcski

I'm still trying to interpret the trainerspeak of the whole thing. The good news is (a) he ran a dynamic mile and an eighth race last out, (b) got 3 good starts in at 3, and (c) will be coming into the race off a 6 week layoff, which these days is almost normal, so despite my pleas doesn't HAVE to be in the Blue Grass.

Hard Spun has done nothing wrong really, I am just sensing something strange here. Its just that they have guided him along and have been careful to avoid facing any of the top competitors. I mean looking at who he has raced against its not exactly a who's who of the division. I just cannot back a horse that has not rubbed shoulders with the better peers. In fact, is there any horse that he has faced that will actually line up in the derby?

With that said, the Turfway race was very solid.

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I just cannot back a horse that has not rubbed shoulders with the better peers. In fact, is there any horse that he has faced that will actually line up in the derby?

.

Well Teufelsburg might get in.

I guess you made your pt.

[King Glorious]

What I don't get is why they think training and getting a feel of the Churchill surface will make a bit of difference. Everyone knows that the track they train over at Churchill and the track they race on on Derby Day are two totally different surfaces.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Hard Spun has done nothing wrong really, I am just sensing something strange here. Its just that they have guided him along and have been careful to avoid facing any of the top competitors. I mean looking at who he has raced against its not exactly a who's who of the division. I just cannot back a horse that has not rubbed shoulders with the better peers. In fact, is there any horse that he has faced that will actually line up in the derby?

I think that is the reason I can't back him.
There is a lot to like about this horse, and early on, I liked his Derby chances quite a bit. His win in the Lecomte was pretty impressive and the dam side of his pedigree is filled with horses that liked to go 10f and beyond (Turkoman, Roberto, Alydar).
But his Oaklawn race turned me off more than it did for most people. I know he was facing some tough circumstances that day, and he still ran a nice figure, but if he couldn't get by those horses he faced that day, then I don't like his chances against better. Who has he beaten?
He is a nice horse and I could see him having a nice year in lesser stakes races on both dirt and poly.
I just don't think he is a classic winner.

[Samarta]

The thing that makes this all seem so screwy is they keep waffling on what they are doing. It may be something as simple as Jones isn't very media savvy and gets things all twisted around. I say this because I read yesterday where he said in a perfect world, they would be able to use the Derby as a prep for the Preakness. I think all he was trying to say is that he hopes Hard Spun takes to the track and they will run in the Derby. When you look at that with all the comments about skipping the Derby and pointing right to the Preakness (which I have big problem with just because of principal) it would appear to some that the ultimate goal is the Preakness. Who the hell knows.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Hard Spun has done nothing wrong really, I am just sensing something strange here. Its just that they have guided him along and have been careful to avoid facing any of the top competitors. I mean looking at who he has raced against its not exactly a who's who of the division. I just cannot back a horse that has not rubbed shoulders with the better peers. In fact, is there any horse that he has faced that will actually line up in the derby?

With that said, the Turfway race was very solid.

agreed , that race was a good one. but hard spun and curlin have taken the "easy" road to the derby. this may leave them lacking derby day. in curlins case it maybe a lack of experience too. i noticed the field he is against saturday is kind of the second tier. in hard spuns case at least he's had the races and looked good in most. maybe they feel hes ready to peak next time out .

[slotdirt]

Hard Spun fired a bullet this morning at the Downs. He must not have handled the track.

[Samarta]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Hard Spun fired a bullet this morning at the Downs. He must not have handled the track.

Looks like....just saw a quote from Porter saying a minute and change, galloped out in 1:13, came back not winded, only drank a qt, and will run in the Derby. Time will tell I suppose.

[slotdirt]

I can't believe they're skipping the Blue Grass.

[Samarta]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I can't believe they're skipping the Blue Grass.

At this point I'm not surprised with anything that goes on with this horse. Next thing you know he'll run on Derby day, but on the undercard because they wanted to get a race in him before the Preakness.

[slotdirt]

Six week layoff into the Derby. That's a serious negative in my book.

[Samarta]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Six week layoff into the Derby. That's a serious negative in my book.

mine too, but one thing I did agree with Jones's comments after the work was what happens if The Blue Grass turns out to be a stretch duel with Street Sense, Great Hunter, or both? What is the downside of a tough Blue Grass race? I think Any Given Saturday told us that last week. I don't know, conventional wisdom is a non entity at this point.