Hard Spun and King of the Roxy
 

Not sure if this news has been posted, but hard Spun has not worked at Churchill due to the cold weather. So he is definately out of the Bluegrass Stakes and his Derby appearance is still on hold. He is schedule to work Thursday at the earliest to see how he likes the Churchill's surface. If he likes the surface then off to the Derby, if he doesnt then it is the Coolmore and then the Preakness. Good luck to Hard Spun.

King of the Roxy is not going to go to the Derby. He is being pointed to the Preakness.

I think now that the objective has been acheived, namely taking Hard Spun out of the Blue Grass, it is a near certainty that he will go in the derby.

That is how I read it as well.

I'm still trying to interpret the trainerspeak of the whole thing. The good news is (a) he ran a dynamic mile and an eighth race last out, (b) got 3 good starts in at 3, and (c) will be coming into the race off a 6 week layoff, which these days is almost normal, so despite my pleas doesn't HAVE to be in the Blue Grass.

Someone ought to make a list of all the derby hopefuls going 2 or less preps and/or having a long layoff. Think this year will break conventional wisdom in some ways.

Hard Spun has done nothing wrong really, I am just sensing something strange here. Its just that they have guided him along and have been careful to avoid facing any of the top competitors. I mean looking at who he has raced against its not exactly a who's who of the division. I just cannot back a horse that has not rubbed shoulders with the better peers. In fact, is there any horse that he has faced that will actually line up in the derby?

With that said, the Turfway race was very solid.

Well Teufelsburg might get in.:p

I guess you made your pt.:o

What I don't get is why they think training and getting a feel of the Churchill surface will make a bit of difference. Everyone knows that the track they train over at Churchill and the track they race on on Derby Day are two totally different surfaces.

I think that is the reason I can't back him.
There is a lot to like about this horse, and early on, I liked his Derby chances quite a bit. His win in the Lecomte was pretty impressive and the dam side of his pedigree is filled with horses that liked to go 10f and beyond (Turkoman, Roberto, Alydar).
But his Oaklawn race turned me off more than it did for most people. I know he was facing some tough circumstances that day, and he still ran a nice figure, but if he couldn't get by those horses he faced that day, then I don't like his chances against better. Who has he beaten?
He is a nice horse and I could see him having a nice year in lesser stakes races on both dirt and poly.
I just don't think he is a classic winner.

The thing that makes this all seem so screwy is they keep waffling on what they are doing. It may be something as simple as Jones isn't very media savvy and gets things all twisted around. I say this because I read yesterday where he said in a perfect world, they would be able to use the Derby as a prep for the Preakness. I think all he was trying to say is that he hopes Hard Spun takes to the track and they will run in the Derby. When you look at that with all the comments about skipping the Derby and pointing right to the Preakness (which I have big problem with just because of principal) it would appear to some that the ultimate goal is the Preakness. Who the hell knows.

If he feels the horse is prepped and takes to the surface, I get the sense he will run. If not, he's going to the Preakness. Call me Captain Obvious.

Which is exactly why I think this idiocy is being fueled by the owner, not the trainer. :confused:

I think it's a combination of a couple of things, but I think the biggest reason is the thought of losing. Think about it...they ship to Oaklawn in December and Hard Spun is the beast of the grounds for 2 months. Workouts are awesome and press is nothing but favorable. Then he runs a well beaten 4th and it's the tracks fault. They ship away from the competition and win impressively but it's on poly. So now they are clear from an earnings perspective but the biggest race in the world is run on dirt. What happened the last time he ran on dirt? He lost! We better start making excuses now in case we don't win or better yet...let's ship to Baltimore and run a shorter race against tired horses. Are you kidding me...pass up a legitimate chance at winning the biggest race in the world, which for many is a once in a lifetime chance. That's like saying the NFC Champs don't show up for the Super Bowl because they don't like playing indoors and besides they have the AFC Champs on their pre-season schedule next year. This guy wants to win more than anything, but seems unwilling to take the chance because there is a chance of losing as well.

The only sensible scenario is that they are trying to sell a piece of the horse and do not want to risk him until the deal is final. That would sort of make sense, what is really happening, I have no idea.

Do you think they might scratch him if he draws outside post for the Ky Derby? Or is that considered bad form?

There are already minority holders, so I don't think it's a sell thing. Who knows about the scratch thing. Since they go all the way down the front stretch, there shouldn't be any reason to scratch because of the draw. Two out of the last three winners have come out the 15 hole. Besides that's another reason for them to blame something else.

Porter is saying that he will breeze 5/8's tomorrow. Track is probably going to be sloppy and here is where it just sounds like a circus. According to Porter's quote, he asked about the track condition and the fact that it is probably going to be sloppy and Jones's reply was "well if he don't like wet, he sure won't like it dry." Last time I checked there were a lot of excuses that didn't like the slop at all. Whole thing is ridiculous.

Hard Spun fired a bullet this morning at the Downs. He must not have handled the track.

agreed , that race was a good one. but hard spun and curlin have taken the "easy" road to the derby. this may leave them lacking derby day. in curlins case it maybe a lack of experience too. i noticed the field he is against saturday is kind of the second tier. in hard spuns case at least he's had the races and looked good in most. maybe they feel hes ready to peak next time out .

Looks like....just saw a quote from Porter saying a minute and change, galloped out in 1:13, came back not winded, only drank a qt, and will run in the Derby. Time will tell I suppose.

I can't believe they're skipping the Blue Grass.

At this point I'm not surprised with anything that goes on with this horse. Next thing you know he'll run on Derby day, but on the undercard because they wanted to get a race in him before the Preakness.