Derby Future added for November

[Dunbar]

One thing CD should be able to easily do is show odds greater than 99-1. Several horses will probably be well over 100-1. You'd think they'd get more takers showing 150-1 than 99-1.

Here are the odds (to 1) of "All Others" in Pool 1 from previous years, which usually occurred in late Jan or early Feb:

1999 4.1
2000 3.5
2001 3.0
2002 2.8
2003 2.2
2004 1.8
2005 2.1
2006 3.0
2007 2.6
2008 3.3
2009 1.9
2010 1.5
2011 2.1
2012 1.5
2013 1.6

2008 was an interesting year. Someone made a moderately large bet on the 2nd day on "All Others", so that when the DRF reported the odds in Saturday's edition, it was 6-5 on "All Others". (it wouldn't have taken a very large bet to do that, given the small early action on the 1st days.) I was apparently not the only one who lost interest in "All Others" then, only to see it close at 3.3-1, odds which I'd have been thrilled to get.

--Dunbar

[tanner12oz]

I looked and all others pool 1 has paid like 30% of the years

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

I looked and all others pool 1 has paid like 30% of the years

More like 47%:

YEAR, Derby Winner, Pool 1 Payout
2013 (Orb*) $5.00
2012 (I'll Have Another $60.20
2011 (Animal Kingdom*) $6.20
2010 (Super Saver) $43.20
2009 (Mine That Bird*) $5.80
2008 (Big Brown*) $8.60
2007 (Street Sense) $22.80
2006 (Barbaro) $40.20
2005 (Giacomo) $52.00
2004 (Smarty Jones*) $5.60
2003 (Funny Cide) $188.00
2002 (War Emblem*) $7.60
2001 (Monarchos) $36.60
2000 (Fusaichi Pegasus) $27.80
1999 (Charismatic*) $10.20

--Dunbar

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

More like 47%:

YEAR, Derby Winner, Pool 1 Payout
2013 (Orb*) $5.00
2012 (I'll Have Another $60.20
2011 (Animal Kingdom*) $6.20
2010 (Super Saver) $43.20
2009 (Mine That Bird*) $5.80
2008 (Big Brown*) $8.60
2007 (Street Sense) $22.80
2006 (Barbaro) $40.20
2005 (Giacomo) $52.00
2004 (Smarty Jones*) $5.60
2003 (Funny Cide) $188.00
2002 (War Emblem*) $7.60
2001 (Monarchos) $36.60
2000 (Fusaichi Pegasus) $27.80
1999 (Charismatic*) $10.20

--Dunbar

$30 wagered as a $2 bet every year would have returned $49 which is actually a 63.3% flat return.

damn. i've never understood the attraction of this particular wager until you posted the retrospective.

it's still not anything i would consider handicapping but unless you want to argue the sample size is too small, "all others" could be a good bet.

even at 2-5 and assuming a conservative hit rate of 50% (pool 1 is 7/15 so i don't think 50% is unreasonable this much earlier) you either get a 40% return or lose everything. a long term expectation of 20% in roughly 5 months. annualized that and you're near 50%.

i don't know anyone that would be unhappy with that return.

[randallscott35]

Yes but the secret is out. The years to bet the field were much more in the beginning of the process. I used to bet a grand on it every year till the public caught on. Now it just isn't as attractive at 3/2 or less field 1....and in Nov? 2/5 to tie up my money isn't happening.

[randallscott35]

If this was all about drumming up buzz, then put an 8% takeout on the bet. Give people a reason to tie up there money.