What did we learn...Pre BC?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

The hell with Maggie. What we need are paddock observations from Freddy, especially after a few Sapphire and tonics.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by pweizer

What did you take away from the Gold Cup that convinces you one way or the other about Cross Traffic? I don't think I learned anything about him from that race.

Paul

I totally agree, after that start there is nothing IMO you can say about Cross Traffic's race. Unfortunately, we still have no idea whether 1 1/4 is within his scope. But as Doug points out, the race was over for him after the stumble and I would not expect a pure speed horse to run any better than he did after such a compromising start.

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'm also unsure why everyone is suddenly in awe of Beholder. Did a lot of people not think she could win around two turns when totally unpressured on that surface?

She got away with such an easy unpressured lead that I too don't see why people are so in awe of that performance. Sure it was a nice race, but she could not have had more favorable circumstances. I am not sure what to take away from that race for Beholder.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by pointman

She got away such an easy unpressured lead that I too don't see why people are so in awe of that performance. Sure it was a nice race, but she could not have had more favorable circumstances. I am not sure what to take away from that race for Beholder.

We know she can go really fast though and be right there with Princess of Sylmar, thats something though I am not sure anyone else can say, but she is likely to be 7/2 and not worth the risk.

I see Royal Delta about 8/5, Authenticity about 6/1. Not sure of the rest really.

[cmorioles]

While people rightfully use breaking poorly as an excuse, they also tend to underestimate the fact that horses that break poorly are often on the way down form wise. To top it off, they are often overbet because of the poor break.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

While people rightfully use breaking poorly as an excuse, they also tend to underestimate the fact that horses that break poorly are often on the way down form wise. To top it off, they are often overbet because of the poor break.

They definitely do get bet. A. P. Indy, was a good 3rd beaten 7 lengths after blowing the break in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He won the BC Classic as the post time favorite in his next start.

I never really have associated breaking poorly with off form though.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

They definitely do get bet. A. P. Indy, was a good 3rd beaten 7 lengths after blowing the break in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He won the BC Classic as the post time favorite in his next start.

I never really have associated breaking poorly with off form though.

When you are bored sometime take a look through some Saturday PPs around the country. It obviously isn't always the case, but you'll see many horses begin to tail off following an unexpected poor break (meaning horses that usually break well). Of course it helps to watch and see if another horse contributed.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

When you are bored sometime take a look through some Saturday PPs around the country. It obviously isn't always the case, but you'll see many horses begin to tail off following an unexpected poor break (meaning horses that usually break well). Of course it helps to watch and see if another horse contributed.

Originally Posted by cmorioles

While people rightfully use breaking poorly as an excuse, they also tend to underestimate the fact that horses that break poorly are often on the way down form wise. To top it off, they are often overbet because of the poor break.

The immediate culprit for Cross Traffic's difficult start was attributed to the gate placement for the seldom used 10f trip. Given that it was his hind legs that went out from under him, there is every likelihood that the footing out against the rail was less than ideal.

Hard to see Cross Traffic tailing off with Pletcher eschewing his typical half mile works and giving him regular 5f drills the last month. The M.O. on Pletcher runners that are over the top is nursing them up to the race. Sure looked like Cross Traffic was being prepared for the stretchout with those solid five-eighths efforts.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Hard to see Cross Traffic tailing off with Pletcher eschewing his typical half mile works and giving him regular 5f drills the last month. The M.O. on Pletcher runners that are over the top is nursing them up to the race. Sure looked like Cross Traffic was being prepared for the stretchout with those solid five-eighths efforts.

Was Quality Road doing 2f works then by the time the BC rolled around?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Was Quality Road doing 2f works then by the time the BC rolled around?

Quality Road worked steadily between the Woodward and Cup but was always an ouchy type with those problematic feet. With Jerkens too.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

The immediate culprit for Cross Traffic's difficult start was attributed to the gate placement for the seldom used 10f trip. Given that it was his hind legs that went out from under him, there is every likelihood that the footing out against the rail was less than ideal.

Hard to see Cross Traffic tailing off with Pletcher eschewing his typical half mile works and giving him regular 5f drills the last month. The M.O. on Pletcher runners that are over the top is nursing them up to the race. Sure looked like Cross Traffic was being prepared for the stretchout with those solid five-eighths efforts.

how is the 116ish bsf dreaming of julia doing? War front?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

The immediate culprit for Cross Traffic's difficult start was attributed to the gate placement for the seldom used 10f trip. Given that it was his hind legs that went out from under him, there is every likelihood that the footing out against the rail was less than ideal.

This is very stupid.

What if there were nine horses, would 8&9 both have stumbled? How about the 7 horse.....was he breaking from firm ground?

Steve, this is REALLY stupid.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is very stupid.

What if there were nine horses, would 8&9 both have stumbled? How about the 7 horse.....was he breaking from firm ground?

Steve, this is REALLY stupid.

Really stupid? Huh.. Mig and Steve Young didn't think so when suggesting it.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Really stupid? Huh.. Mig and Steve Young didn't think so when suggesting it.

I don't care who said it, it is stupid, irresponsible, and holds up to NO intelligent scrutiny.

Just repeating things that others say is VERY dangerous.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

While people rightfully use breaking poorly as an excuse, they also tend to underestimate the fact that horses that break poorly are often on the way down form wise. To top it off, they are often overbet because of the poor break.

Cross Traffic could not have been colder on the board on Saturday. He ran the way he was bet.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Cross Traffic could not have been colder on the board on Saturday. He ran the way he was bet.

Orb was red-hot on the board.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Orb was red-hot on the board.

never been too big into the "board", just as much as it may have lead me somewhere more times than not its been fools gold.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

never been too big into the "board", just as much as it may have lead me somewhere more times than not its been fools gold.

Unless it is a long layoff, first time starter, or sharp class dropper...I never get swayed even slightly by that stuff.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

never been too big into the "board", just as much as it may have lead me somewhere more times than not its been fools gold.

I let it lead me to horses that are getting ignored...

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Orb was red-hot on the board.

At one point (with over $200K in the win pool), the "other Pletcher" was 8-5 while Cross Traffic was 7-1. If the Cross Traffic that ran in the Met Mile and Whitney had showed up on Saturday, he was supposed to be closer to 8-5 than 8-1. Someone knew.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

At one point (with over $200K in the win pool), the "other Pletcher" was 8-5 while Cross Traffic was 7-1. If the Cross Traffic that ran in the Met Mile and Whitney had showed up on Saturday, he was supposed to be closer to 8-5 than 8-1. Someone knew.

Don't buy it. Palace Malice -- the 'other' Pletcher -- had won at 12f over the course and was exiting a troubled 10f trip. Cross Traffic was an uncertainty that many felt was fortunate to hold off Successful Dan at 9f.

Here's the ML and PT prices of the 4 faves.
Cross Traffic (2.50 ML; 3.40 PT)
Flat Out (3.00 ML; 2.50 PT)
Palace Malice (4.00 ML; 2.75 PT)
Orb (4.50 ML; 3.50)