Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

jms62 · #1 06-07-2013, 10:15 AM

Quote:

What are your thoughts on Incognito?

I think he'll finish the race.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #2 06-07-2013, 10:26 AM

9/5/14/2

knickslions2 · #3 06-07-2013, 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

9/5/14/2

10 pnt move up · #4 06-08-2013, 06:03 PM

Pace seemed crazy fast to me.

outofthebox · #5 06-08-2013, 06:15 PM

Boy did Orb blow another opportunity! Final 1/2 in 54 seconds and he flattened out late and couldnt pass the staggering leaders..Calzone was spot on about the pace. Maybe even a 10 out of 10.

letswastemoney · #6 06-08-2013, 06:20 PM

Another terrific race by Oxbow, even if he lost.

10 pnt move up · #7 06-08-2013, 06:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by outofthebox

Boy did Orb blow another opportunity! Final 1/2 in 54 seconds and he flattened out late and couldnt pass the staggering leaders..Calzone was spot on about the pace. Maybe even a 10 out of 10.

I know one thing, when they put up 46 and change he was not running to bet any of the leaders.

Calzone Lord · #8 06-08-2013, 07:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by outofthebox

Boy did Orb blow another opportunity! Final 1/2 in 54 seconds and he flattened out late and couldnt pass the staggering leaders..Calzone was spot on about the pace. Maybe even a 10 out of 10.

Thanks man.

That was solid, but unspectacular Orb at his finest.

Had Orb finished 2nd, I would have selected the exacta cold in the newspaper.

I ended up stabbing with Palace Malice and selected him to win the Belmont in the Erie newspaper: (picks are on right hand side of the link below)

http://www.goerie.com/article/201306...Belmont-Stakes

I wish I had more conviction with Palace Malice. I hated that horse prior to the Derby. So, it was tough to pick him on top in the Belmont Stakes ... and ultimately I only did because he figured to be the biggest price of three Pletcher colts with a look...and when you're doing newspaper picks, you have to pick someone 1st.

It just felt like a race where the good Orb would run 2nd to something that jumps up and the bad Orb would plug on for 3rd.

Anyway, this was a fun triple crown series. It's a very memorable one because the Derby was just about the fastest paced dirt race of the entire year on pace figures. Only one race at Laurel, where a horse totally ran off, is close.

Oxbow and Palace Malice both had ugly backform going into the Derby, but they both ran the race of their life in the Derby, and their heroic performances in the Derby were totally concealed by up the track results, finishing well behind a nobuddy closer like Golden Soul.

Anyway, it should be a very fun Haskell and Travers.

JerseyJ · #9 06-08-2013, 07:39 PM

That was a pretty heroic effort though into that pace by Oxbow though wasn't it? I know the pace was fast, but was it 10 out of 10 fast? I am not sure I am the one to truly assess that.

I am wondering though, while I think that the Preakness woke people up that Oxbow was a nice colt, if the Belmont might just help him even more in the long run, seeing as how the two horses that he dueled with on the front end, Frac Daddy and Freedom Child ended up beaten over 110 lengths combined between the two, with both being beaten 50+ lengths. After seeing Oxbow bury those two colts into submission and still gamely continue on to the end, who is going to want to go early and hook up with him? Might just help him down the line.

And what to say about McPeek? Not to say that Frac Daddy ever had a chance, but how much of a donkey move was it to send him from the rail? I am not saying the horse was ever that good, but I wouldn't be shocked if he doesn't ever come anywhere close to a race he's ever ran...throwing him to the wolves in a race he never had a chance in, and sending him against speedy horses like Freedom Child and Oxbow? A demoralizing type of thing.

nfliehman · #10 06-07-2013, 11:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62

I think he'll finish the race.

How original

jms62 · #11 06-07-2013, 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nfliehman

How original

You should really expect as much when you ask about the chances of a horse in the Belmont that owns 2 career wins, the maiden coming in his 4th start and the other an 25K Optional Claimer. Seriously against this field what am I missing?

nfliehman · #12 06-07-2013, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62

You should really expect as much when you ask about the chances of a horse in the Belmont that owns 2 career wins, the maiden coming in his 4th start and the other an 25K Optional Claimer. Seriously against this field what am I missing?

I do not have close to the horse racing knowledge most on this board have. With that being said, I read somewhere last night that his pedigree is well suited for this distance. I didn't know if he was deemed a closer or not. With people saying closers could have the best chance to win and his pedigree I thought he could have a chance to at least hit the board. Thanks for the info though

hurricanefrank · #13 06-07-2013, 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62

You should really expect as much when you ask about the chances of a horse in the Belmont that owns 2 career wins, the maiden coming in his 4th start and the other an 25K Optional Claimer. Seriously against this field what am I missing?

Maybe so. But think Sarava in 2002. He faced a more talented field than this 2013 bunch, looked every bit the part of a 70-1 shot and...