Analyzing The Preakness

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

A database that takes years and years of Pimlico races into account VS someone in California who pays attention to Pimlico maybe one weekend a year.

Enjoy betting Mylute in the future, since he closed from dead last, 10+ lengths back, to run third beaten about two lengths against that slow pace.

I had quite the romance with Mylute earlier in the year, he will give you a thrill on the turn and break your heart inside the 1/16th pole if you bet on him.

I'm just comparing the race and the day to past Preaknesses and past Preakness days. This was the slowest Preakness in 50 years. And it was one of the slowest paces in 50 years. That's not debatable. The only thing that is debatable is how much slower the track was yesterday compared to past Preakness days. If the track was in fact much slower yesterday than every other year, then maybe the pace and the final time were much better than they appeared.

With regard to Mylute, I'm not a fan. I wasn't impressed with his Derby race and I wasn't impressed with his Preakness race.

[Calzone Lord]

The pace in last years Preakness was a +2.

I know you're a very smart man, but I think I'll stick with the database.

Lets change the subject. What are your thoughts on gardening? How about 14th century poetry?

[outofthebox]

Doug, can't wait to see your pace numbers for Zee Bros. His half of 45.16 was 2 lengths faster than the Maryland Sprint for older horses. This is with a 5ft run up at the 6f distance. Problem for Zee Bros is that i believe he may be heading right into Let Em Shine at Belmont. That could get nasty!

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by outofthebox

Doug, can't wait to see your pace numbers for Zee Bros. His half of 45.16 was 2 lengths faster than the Maryland Sprint for older horses. This is with a 5ft run up at the 6f distance. Problem for Zee Bros is that i believe he may be heading right into Let Em Shine at Belmont. That could get nasty!

Let Em Shine is like the Precious Passion of sprinters!

CJ does Pimlico. I will find out. He only E-mailed me the Preakness fig yesterday.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Let Em Shine is like the Precious Passion of sprinters!

CJ does Pimlico. I will find out. He only E-mailed me the Preakness fig yesterday.

Zee Bros was coming off 102-80 and only faded late at a mile, I thought he was going to be pretty tough and a will be a pretty legit sprinter for the rest of the year.

[Uncle Daddy]

C.L.,
Thanks for your breakdown & analysis.

Question: If Orb is a one grinding one paced style, why not swing him wide for an open run final 1/4 mile or so? Seems like he hated being pinned in and there was no reaction. Rosario maybe put him in the wrong spot and just did not react soon enough? I'm not inclined top crucify the rider but suprising considering he has been up for every mount.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Uncle Daddy

C.L.,
Thanks for your breakdown & analysis.

Question: If Orb is a one grinding one paced style, why not swing him wide for an open run final 1/4 mile or so? Seems like he hated being pinned in and there was no reaction. Rosario maybe put him in the wrong spot and just did not react soon enough? I'm not inclined top crucify the rider but suprising considering he has been up for every mount.

If he had a do-over, I'm sure he would be more patient. The same can be said for Javier on Normandy Invasion in the Derby X2.

The really good horses who come from off the pace would have handled that trip better.

For a genuine all-time great type of off-the-pace horse like Easy Goer, who was running 116 Beyers at age 2 and 126 Beyers at age 3, that trip wouldn't have flattened him out.

If Orb tried to do what Normandy Invasion did in the Derby, he'd have flattened out like a pancake in my opinion. Easy to say now, because he flattened out in the Preakness with a less extreme version of that trip.

Orb will have a good look for redemption in 3 weeks. There's a lot of speed signed on for the Belmont and with Oxbow earning respect, you know the pace will be contested in that race. Orb will be home, and he will get plenty of pace and distance. I expect Rosario to be true to Orb's style in that race.

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by Uncle Daddy

C.L.,
Thanks for your breakdown & analysis.

Question: If Orb is a one grinding one paced style, why not swing him wide for an open run final 1/4 mile or so? Seems like he hated being pinned in and there was no reaction. Rosario maybe put him in the wrong spot and just did not react soon enough? I'm not inclined top crucify the rider but suprising considering he has been up for every mount.

Except for the FOY and FD where JV rode him.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Let Em Shine is like the Precious Passion of sprinters!

CJ does Pimlico. I will find out. He only E-mailed me the Preakness fig yesterday.

I have the race as 90-91-82. The 10th race, also at 6f, was 85-82-84.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I have the race as 90-91-82. The 10th race, also at 6f, was 85-82-84.

CJ,

Can you recap how the current figures relate to maybe what pars would be. A good Grade 1/2 sprinter on the front end, I think 90 ish is pretty solid, anything close to 100 would be blazing? On the other end of the scales anything around 80 would be considered well below par of that type of animal?

[cmorioles]

A 90 is around par for older, G1 males. Keep in mind that is at the finish. Also, a 90 at 1/4 mile in a 6f race is running faster than a 90 at 1/4 mile in a 7f race, and even faster than a 90 at 1/4 mile in a 9f race.

The pace figures are meant to relate how the fractions compare to the final time, not so much for comparing who is faster on different surfaces and at different distances. I have different tools for that. Of course on the same surface/distance, they can certainly be used as a means of comparison.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The pace in last years Preakness was a +2.

I know you're a very smart man, but I think I'll stick with the database.

Lets change the subject. What are your thoughts on gardening? How about 14th century poetry?

Beyer thought the pace was slow. I will quote him from today's article: "Oxbow was able to set such an easy pace, covering the first six furlongs in 1 minute 13.26 seconds".

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Beyer thought the pace was slow. I will quote him from today's article: "Oxbow was able to set such an easy pace, covering the first six furlongs in 1 minute 13.26 seconds".

I would only agree with what he wrote if "easy" meant uncontested.

If he meant "easy" to mean slow, I would disagree.

An uncontested lead is dangerous on dirt, but the pace should correctly be classified as "even" "fair" or "average"