Analyzing The Preakness

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Beyer obviously thinks the track was very slow yesterday. He gave Oxbow a 106. I think that number is way too high but we all have different opinions.

A Beyer figure is a final time figure.

The spread between the pace figure and final time figure is computerized. Algorithms.

On a 100 point scale, the pace figure for the Preakness is 4 points faster than the final time figure.

It doesn't matter if you think the race should get a 106 Beyer or a 96 Beyer...the pace figure will be a little faster than the final time.

If you want to see what an actual slow pace going 9.5 furlongs at Pimlico looks like, here's a chart of Friday's Pimlico Special:

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...20130517&RN=12

This race was a -15. The very good Eighttofasttocatch went 49.91 for a half mile.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

A Beyer figure is a final time figure.

The spread between the pace figure and final time figure is computerized. Algorithms.

On a 100 point scale, the pace figure for the Preakness is 4 points faster than the final time figure.

It doesn't matter if you think the race should get a 106 Beyer or a 96 Beyer...the pace figure will be a little faster than the final time.

If you want to see what an actual slow pace going 9.5 furlongs at Pimlico looks like, here's a chart of Friday's Pimlico Special:

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...20130517&RN=12

This race was a -15. The very good Eighttofasttocatch went 49.91 for a half mile.

I know Richards Kid is not what he used to be but he keeps finding paceless races, if he can catch a pace he could win at a big number.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

A Beyer figure is a final time figure.

The spread between the pace figure and final time figure is computerized. Algorithms.

On a 100 point scale, the pace figure for the Preakness is 4 points faster than the final time figure.

It doesn't matter if you think the race should get a 106 Beyer or a 96 Beyer...the pace figure will be a little faster than the final time.

If you want to see what an actual slow pace going 9.5 furlongs at Pimlico looks like, here's a chart of Friday's Pimlico Special:

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...20130517&RN=12

This race was a -15. The very good Eighttofasttocatch went 49.91 for a half mile.

I understand that. My point about the Beyer figure was simply that the final time was so slow (the slowest final Preakness time in 50 year), that you would expect the Beyer to be really slow, unless Beyer felt that the track was really slow, which he obviously did.

Pimlico is obviously a much slower track than many other tracks. There is no debate about that. A horse like Zee Bros runs 1:08 and change at Santa Anita. At Pimlico, he doesn't break 1:10. We know that Pimlico is a slow track. I'm not comparing Pimlico to other tracks. I'm comparing the Preakness this year to other years. We know the track was slower yesterday than some past years but how much slower? Was the track slower than last year? Maybe, but if it was I don't think it was by much, maybe a couple of ticks. I think the pace was slow yesterday, but I think the best horse still won. If Goldencents would have gunned out there in :47 3/5, I think Stevens would have stalked (3-5 lengths back) and I think Oxbow still wins.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I think the pace was slow yesterday,

A database that takes years and years of Pimlico races into account VS someone in California who pays attention to Pimlico maybe one weekend a year.

Enjoy betting Mylute in the future, since he closed from dead last, 10+ lengths back, to run third beaten about two lengths against that slow pace.

I had quite the romance with Mylute earlier in the year, he will give you a thrill on the turn and break your heart inside the 1/16th pole if you bet on him.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

A database that takes years and years of Pimlico races into account VS someone in California who pays attention to Pimlico maybe one weekend a year.

Enjoy betting Mylute in the future, since he closed from dead last, 10+ lengths back, to run third beaten about two lengths against that slow pace.

I had quite the romance with Mylute earlier in the year, he will give you a thrill on the turn and break your heart inside the 1/16th pole if you bet on him.

I'm just comparing the race and the day to past Preaknesses and past Preakness days. This was the slowest Preakness in 50 years. And it was one of the slowest paces in 50 years. That's not debatable. The only thing that is debatable is how much slower the track was yesterday compared to past Preakness days. If the track was in fact much slower yesterday than every other year, then maybe the pace and the final time were much better than they appeared.

With regard to Mylute, I'm not a fan. I wasn't impressed with his Derby race and I wasn't impressed with his Preakness race.

[Calzone Lord]

The pace in last years Preakness was a +2.

I know you're a very smart man, but I think I'll stick with the database.

Lets change the subject. What are your thoughts on gardening? How about 14th century poetry?

[outofthebox]

Doug, can't wait to see your pace numbers for Zee Bros. His half of 45.16 was 2 lengths faster than the Maryland Sprint for older horses. This is with a 5ft run up at the 6f distance. Problem for Zee Bros is that i believe he may be heading right into Let Em Shine at Belmont. That could get nasty!

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by outofthebox

Doug, can't wait to see your pace numbers for Zee Bros. His half of 45.16 was 2 lengths faster than the Maryland Sprint for older horses. This is with a 5ft run up at the 6f distance. Problem for Zee Bros is that i believe he may be heading right into Let Em Shine at Belmont. That could get nasty!

Let Em Shine is like the Precious Passion of sprinters!

CJ does Pimlico. I will find out. He only E-mailed me the Preakness fig yesterday.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The pace in last years Preakness was a +2.

I know you're a very smart man, but I think I'll stick with the database.

Lets change the subject. What are your thoughts on gardening? How about 14th century poetry?

Beyer thought the pace was slow. I will quote him from today's article: "Oxbow was able to set such an easy pace, covering the first six furlongs in 1 minute 13.26 seconds".

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Beyer thought the pace was slow. I will quote him from today's article: "Oxbow was able to set such an easy pace, covering the first six furlongs in 1 minute 13.26 seconds".

I would only agree with what he wrote if "easy" meant uncontested.

If he meant "easy" to mean slow, I would disagree.

An uncontested lead is dangerous on dirt, but the pace should correctly be classified as "even" "fair" or "average"

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I understand that. My point about the Beyer figure was simply that the final time was so slow (the slowest final Preakness time in 50 year), that you would expect the Beyer to be really slow, unless Beyer felt that the track was really slow, which he obviously did.

Pimlico is obviously a much slower track than many other tracks. There is no debate about that. A horse like Zee Bros runs 1:08 and change at Santa Anita. At Pimlico, he doesn't break 1:10. We know that Pimlico is a slow track. I'm not comparing Pimlico to other tracks. I'm comparing the Preakness this year to other years. We know the track was slower yesterday than some past years but how much slower? Was the track slower than last year? Maybe, but if it was I don't think it was by much, maybe a couple of ticks. I think the pace was slow yesterday, but I think the best horse still won. If Goldencents would have gunned out there in :47 3/5, I think Stevens would have stalked (3-5 lengths back) and I think Oxbow still wins.

No runup at 6F at Pimlico. You routinely see horses ship in from Parx, etc with :22 first quarters run :24 or worse. There's literally 5 feet of runup. Compare that to Churchill, which is damn near a 6.25F race when you factor in the runup.

The 45.16 half he set yesterday is maybe the fastest I've ever seen there. I'd have to think with as slow as the track was yesterday that would be a +30... and he still won relatively easily. He's a serious sprinter.