How Derby winners have performed in Preakness since '89

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

Jay Cronley's column on the ESPN site this week says that- not about Skip Away and Holy Bull specifically, but that the Derby winners in recent years have not had the highest number going in. Though sometimes he's so rambling he makes me wonder if he tipped back a few before sitting down at the keyboard, I always enjoy Cronley's columns. I thought this week was particularly good.

http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/stor...rby-mind-games

Yes, that's wasn't very coherent.

The form of these 3-year-olds become more fickle as they're asked to do a lot less racing and a lot less training.

Regarding his point on the Beyer figures... here's the list of horses who had the top Beyer figure going into the Derby each year since they've been published in the DRF:

2013: Goldencents
2012: Bodemeister
2011: Archarchrach - Nehro (tie)
2010: Devil May Care - Sidney's Candy (tie)
2009: Dunkirk
2008: Big Brown ($6.80)
2007: Curlin
2006: Sinister Minister
2005: Bellamy Road
2004: The Cliff's Edge
2003: Empire Maker
2002: War Emblem ($43.00)
2001: Millennium Wind
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus ($7.20)
1999: Charismatic ($64.60) - General Challenge (tie)
1998: Indian Charlie
1997: Silver Charm ($10.00) - Free House (tie)
1996: Skip Away
1995: Serena's Song
1994: Holy Bull
1993: Diazo
1992: Pine Bluff - Lil E Tee ($35.60) (tie)


Only once in the last 11 years has the top figure, on Beyers, won the Derby. But 3 times they've finished in 2nd place, and once 3rd.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Yes, that's wasn't very coherent.

The form of these 3-year-olds become more fickle as they're asked to do a lot less racing and a lot less training.

Regarding his point on the Beyer figures... here's the list of horses who had the top Beyer figure going into the Derby each year since they've been published in the DRF:

2013: Goldencents
2012: Bodemeister
2011: Archarchrach - Nehro (tie)
2010: Devil May Care - Sidney's Candy (tie)
2009: Dunkirk
2008: Big Brown ($6.80)
2007: Curlin
2006: Sinister Minister
2005: Bellamy Road
2004: The Cliff's Edge
2003: Empire Maker
2002: War Emblem ($43.00)
2001: Millennium Wind
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus ($7.20)
1999: Charismatic ($64.60) - General Challenge (tie)
1998: Indian Charlie
1997: Silver Charm ($10.00) - Free House (tie)
1996: Skip Away
1995: Serena's Song
1994: Holy Bull
1993: Diazo
1992: Pine Bluff - Lil E Tee ($35.60) (tie)


Only once in the last 11 years has the top figure, on Beyers, won the Derby. But 3 times they've finished in 2nd place, and once 3rd.

That's very interesting that two of the most recent fillies had the highest or co-highest Beyer going in. That, I think, is a support to the argument that some of the filly prep races should count toward Derby qualifying points.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

That's very interesting that two of the most recent fillies had the highest or co-highest Beyer going in. That, I think, is a support to the argument that some of the filly prep races should count toward Derby qualifying points.

Unfortunately for both Serena's Song and Devil May Care, they didn't have the right running style in those respective years, and both were fried up by the fast pace.

But both performed well immediately after the Derby.

Devil May Care won the Grade 1 Mother Goose and Grade 1 Coaching Club Oaks in her next two starts. Before a disappointing 4th in the Alabama in what was her final career start. An illness led to her death.

Serena's Song won the Black Eyed Susan by 9 lengths just two weeks after her Derby defeat. She won the Grade 1 Mother Goose in her next start after that. And she won the Grade 1 Haskell against the males.

Here's Serena's Song winning the Haskell:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vGw9GiXPwoA


Here she is a good 2nd in the Whitney Handicap:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2BUHCLBuK1s

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Yes, that's wasn't very coherent.

The form of these 3-year-olds become more fickle as they're asked to do a lot less racing and a lot less training.

Regarding his point on the Beyer figures... here's the list of horses who had the top Beyer figure going into the Derby each year since they've been published in the DRF:

2013: Goldencents
2012: Bodemeister
2011: Archarchrach - Nehro (tie)
2010: Devil May Care - Sidney's Candy (tie)
2009: Dunkirk
2008: Big Brown ($6.80)
2007: Curlin
2006: Sinister Minister
2005: Bellamy Road
2004: The Cliff's Edge
2003: Empire Maker
2002: War Emblem ($43.00)
2001: Millennium Wind
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus ($7.20)
1999: Charismatic ($64.60) - General Challenge (tie)
1998: Indian Charlie
1997: Silver Charm ($10.00) - Free House (tie)
1996: Skip Away
1995: Serena's Song
1994: Holy Bull
1993: Diazo
1992: Pine Bluff - Lil E Tee ($35.60) (tie)


Only once in the last 11 years has the top figure, on Beyers, won the Derby. But 3 times they've finished in 2nd place, and once 3rd.

Good stuff, but "Only once in the last 11 years" sounds worse than it really is. 11 years is an arbitrary cutoff. You could as easily say 'twice in the last 12 years', 'four times in the last 15 years', etc. Going back any number of years greater than 11 would produce a huge ROI for betting the Derby horse(s) with the top BSF.

--Dunbar