Ride on Normandy Invasion

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ninetoone

I'll start by saying I don't make a pimple on most of the handicapper's asses on here, but I do enjoy all the posts & I've been on the board since the beginning & even the original Yahoo board. I'm just a weekend warrior who knows a little more than the average wing nut out there. The way I see it is that Javier gave a horse with a lot of prior excuses a chance to prove that he was a champion, and the horse just didn't have it. I know JC's getting hammered on here for this, but the fact of the matter is, he's been on a couple of awesome horses in his career & he knows what a truly special horse can do. Orb's time was fairly ordinary & so was the Beyer (I know someone will correct me if I'm wrong). As Travis said in his post, "Only two horses made a similar move and finished-up: Big Brown and Barbaro." JC gave NI a chance to prove that he was one of those special types & he was wrong. The winning time was 2:02.89, nothing special...the way I see it, JC made the decision that he had the best horse & a horse that could sustain that kind of bid & run. If you could have frozen time at a mile & maybe even showed him his fractions, would he change anything? I'm not sure, maybe, maybe not. if he wrangles him back & loses, he gets criticized for that too I guess. I'm not sure if the Barbaro & Big Brown Derbies are good analogies or not as far as internal fractions, etc....but I did bet Barbaro (the last time I had a winner) and I remember being happy at the top of the stretch that Prado was going to at least give me a chance to be right....and I felt the same way the other day. Sorry for the rambling post & please be gentle, I'm just a layperson that thoroughly enjoys the discussion!!

I'm not sure I understand your logic. I agree with you that if NI was some incredible horse (for example Secretariat), that he could have won the race, even with the premature move. How is that relevant? NI is not Secretariat.

NI got a bad ride and it cost him a couple of lengths. Nobody on here said that NI was Secretariat. Nobody on here said that the race NI ran in the Derby was as good as the race Barbaro ran in the Derby. All we said was that NI's chances were compromised by a premature move.

I think 95% of experienced handicappers share the belief that NI would have run 2nd with a more patient ride. I really don't think it takes a genius to see that NI moved too soon. A lot of us on here disagree about a lot of things when it comes to handicapping and watching races but we pretty much all agree that NI moved too soon. It's not a close call.

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I'm not sure I understand your logic. I agree with you that if NI was some incredible horse (for example Secretariat), that he could have won the race, even with the premature move. How is that relevant? NI is not Secretariat.

NI got a bad ride and it cost him a couple of lengths. Nobody on here said that NI was Secretariat. Nobody on here said that the race NI ran in the Derby was as good as the race Barbaro ran in the Derby. All we said was that NI's chances were compromised by a premature move.

I think 95% of experienced handicappers share the belief that NI would have run 2nd with a more patient ride. I really don't think it takes a genius to see that NI moved too soon. A lot of us on here disagree about a lot of things when it comes to handicapping and watching races but we pretty much all agree that NI moved too soon. It's not a close call.

I guess what I'm saying is that, for example, a 2:02 flat (for example) final time was not completely unreasonable for NI even considering the fractions of the race. That's not asking him to be Secretariat at all...just a little better caliber horse. If he was able to get him home in 2:02 flat, he wins by 4 lengths or so & everyone is on JC's jock. Instead, he gives the horse an opportunity to succeed.& he's the goat. One of the things I thought I learned on this board over the years from people like BTW was that it's mostly the horse & not so much the jockey. I guess I just don't see it as the gross blunder that everyone else seems to view it as...and I personally don't believe it cost NI the win.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ninetoone

I guess what I'm saying is that, for example, a 2:02 flat (for example) final time was not completely unreasonable for NI even considering the fractions of the race. That's not asking him to be Secretariat at all...just a little better caliber horse. If he was able to get him home in 2:02 flat, he wins by 4 lengths or so & everyone is on JC's jock. Instead, he gives the horse an opportunity to succeed.& he's the goat. One of the things I thought I learned on this board over the years from people like BTW was that it's mostly the horse & not so much the jockey. I guess I just don't see it as the gross blunder that everyone else seems to view it as...and I personally don't believe it cost NI the win.

I think a 2:02 flat final time, under the conditions would be totally unreasonable. I'm not big on speed figures but let's talk speed figures for a second just to make a point. Let's assume that Orb's Beyer of 104 is an accurate figure. You said you didn't see why NI couldn't have run 2:02 flat. A 2:02 flat would equate to about a 113 Beyer. Why would you expect NI to be able to run a 113 Beyer?

With regard to whether Javy's move was a "gross blunder", I guess it depends what your definition of "gross blunder" is. I think the majority of us think he cost the horse 2nd place. I don't know if that qualifies as a gross blunder.

[ninetoone]

If he was a special horse I think a 113 beyer would be reasonable. We didn't know if he was going to be that kind of horse until Saturday. ...and now we know.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ninetoone

If he was a special horse I think a 113 beyer would be reasonable. We didn't know if he was going to be that kind of horse until Saturday. ...and now we know.

Orb ran 2:02 4/5. Does that mean he's not a special horse? Did he need to run 2:02 flat to be a special horse?

I don't understand your logic at all. By the way, I think it is totally irrelevant how good of a horse NI is. That is not relevant to the conversation at all. What a jockey is supposed to do is to position his horse and to ride his horse in a way as to maximize that horse's finish position in the race. It doesn't matter how good the horse is. Just put the horse in the spot that will maximize his finish. That was not done with this horse.

I guess if you are a jockey and you are on a 1-9 shot that you think is the best by 10 lengths, then I could see some situations where making a premature move might make sense if you were in danger of otherwise getting boxed in. But Javy was not on a 1-9 shot and he was not in danger of getting boxed in.

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Orb ran 2:02 4/5. Does that mean he's not a special horse? Did he need to run 2:02 flat to be a special horse?

I don't understand your logic at all. By the way, I think it is totally irrelevant how good of a horse NI is. That is not relevant to the conversation at all. What a jockey is supposed to do is to position his horse and to ride his horse in a way as to maximize that horse's finish position in the race. It doesn't matter how good the horse is. Just put the horse in the spot that will maximize his finish. That was not done with this horse.

I guess if you are a jockey and you are on a 1-9 shot that you think is the best by 10 lengths, then I could see some situations where making a premature move might make sense if you were in danger of otherwise getting boxed in. But Javy was not on a 1-9 shot and he was not in danger of getting boxed in.

2:02 flat was just a random number. I think you're missing the point. Maybe I should have said 2:02 3/5 to better explain. As for whether or not Orb is special...IMO that remains to be seen. I hope so!

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Orb ran 2:02 4/5. Does that mean he's not a special horse? Did he need to run 2:02 flat to be a special horse?

I don't understand your logic at all. By the way, I think it is totally irrelevant how good of a horse NI is. That is not relevant to the conversation at all. What a jockey is supposed to do is to position his horse and to ride his horse in a way as to maximize that horse's finish position in the race. It doesn't matter how good the horse is. Just put the horse in the spot that will maximize his finish. That was not done with this horse.

I guess if you are a jockey and you are on a 1-9 shot that you think is the best by 10 lengths, then I could see some situations where making a premature move might make sense if you were in danger of otherwise getting boxed in. But Javy was not on a 1-9 shot and he was not in danger of getting boxed in.

I'll try this one last way. If NI manages to run that race in 2:02 3/5, he wins by a small margin, right?

Now are you saying that it's impossible that a horse that's not Secretariat could have done that, given his position at 6F? At a mile? If so, I disagree.

My contention is that JC didn't so much misjudge the pace as he did the ability of the horse under him.

I realize I'm in the minority here...no hard feelings though, I'm wearing my big boy pants tonight

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ninetoone

I'll try this one last way. If NI manages to run that race in 2:02 3/5, he wins by a small margin, right?

Now are you saying that it's impossible that a horse that's not Secretariat could have done that, given his position at 6F? At a mile? If so, I disagree.

My contention is that JC didn't so much misjudge the pace as he did the ability of the horse under him.

I realize I'm in the minority here...no hard feelings though, I'm wearing my big boy pants tonight

NI lost the race by a little more than 3 1/2 lengths. What your'e saying is right. If NI had 4 lengths more ability (talent), he would have won. Yes, that is true. I don't know what that has to do with anything. You could say that about any bad ride. If a horse gets a bad ride and loses a race by 2 lengths, you could always say, "It wasn't the ride that cost the horse. If the horse had 2 1/2 lengths more ability, then he would have won any way." That is true I suppose but what kind of argument is that?

I couldn't tell you why Javy moved way too soon. Did he misjudge how fast they were going or did he misjudge how long his horse could sustain his run? Does it matter? He made a major miscalculation either way. I don't know why he moved too soon. I just know he moved too soon.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ninetoone

If he was a special horse I think a 113 beyer would be reasonable. We didn't know if he was going to be that kind of horse until Saturday. ...and now we know.

I don't think we know yet whether NI is a special horse. What is your definition of a special horse? I think NI will win some graded stakes races before all is said and done.

If he runs in the Preakness I have no idea how he will do. He's not the sturdiest horse in the world. He doesn't carry a ton of weight. Those types of horses often times require more time between races. Coming back on only two weeks rest would be a tall task but he might be able to do it.

[art vanderlay]

If I had to take a shot and guess who moved to soon I would have to go with Mike Smith, right out of the gate.

[Seattleallstar]

Chad was better off leaving Jose Lezcano on the horse, Castellano in the Wood must was given some sense of false security on the horse that he thought would work in the Derby by moving earlier

[Seattleallstar]

plus notice how there is no official Chad Brown quote regarding the derby, unoffically they are not some happy people right now

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

plus notice how there is no official Chad Brown quote regarding the derby, unoffically they are not some happy people right now

What was wrong with his praise of Castallano in all the write ups post race? That seemed official enough for me.

[Seattleallstar]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

What was wrong with his praise of Castallano in all the write ups post race? That seemed official enough for me.

Where at, I haven't read anything that has had much post race reaction