Shanghai Bobby can he win at 1 1/4???

[wac]

so i just got into a discussion with my boss as he knows someone involved in the starlight group that owns SB and i told him that i didn't think the horse will win KD due to distance limitations he said bs that horse has a lot of want to in him. i responded i don't think that he can outrun his pedigree which if i recall is that his mom was a sprinter out of orientate(sp) i think. So what do you guys think??? he also said that he thinks pedigree is WAY over rated which i retorted that the Dosage system for the KD has been pretty accurate for quite a while if my memory serves me correctly. Any help is appreciated.

[freddymo]

He might have to sprout wings to win the derby.

[Cannon Shell]

Dont debate with your Boss!

If you take a stance against every single 2yo potentially winning the Derby you will only be wrong 1 time. Shanghai Bobby has a chance to not even qualify for the Derby under the new rules. They plan on possibly running him twice before the Derby and despite being the winner of the Hopeful, Champagne and BC Juvy and being an undefeated champion 2 yo, he only has 20 points towards the Derby which is the same as the 3rd place finisher in the UAE Derby will get.

[wac]

Cannon, it wasn't anything nasty we were just shooting the breeze and we both like to argue about horse racing its all in good fun. Hope all is well.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by wac

Cannon, it wasn't anything nasty we were just shooting the breeze and we both like to argue about horse racing its all in good fun. Hope all is well.

I was kidding really. I don't see him getting 1 1/4 fwiw. Honestly I dont think people realize how screwed up this point system could get. The late preps are worth so much that If we have a bunch of different winners of preps we may be looking at horses like Shanghai Bobby needing to win a prep to get in. Say he breaks poorly or gets a bad trip and runs 4th in his comeback race like the Fountain of Youth or Gotham. He will have 25 points at that point and would likely need to hit the board in another of the big preps to get in. The runner up's in the BC juvy more or less got a few meaningless points which is going to further erode horsemans desire to run in these races.

[Calzone Lord]

I don't like Shanghain Bobby's Derby chances at all. He was falling apart late in the BC Juvenile...there was just no Action This Day or Anees type in the race to blow past him late.

A lot of Pletcher 2yo's will improve noticeably when Gulfstream opens up and gets going. With less pace pressure and lasix he should be fine at 8f and maybe fine up to 9f ... but the Derby is a different animal for a horse with his running style...unless of course he shows the unlikely dimension and becomes a converted mid-pack horse.

I think people forget what a great race Bodemeister ran in the Kentucky Derby. He outran a Breeders Cup Sprint winner-- set an absolutely insane killer pace -- blew the race apart on the far turn and had five on the Derby field in the stretch -- and just came up short late.

I'm sure Baffert probably wishes he didn't run him back in the Preakness off of such a gut-wrenching performance.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I was kidding really. I don't see him getting 1 1/4 fwiw. Honestly I dont think people realize how screwed up this point system could get. The late preps are worth so much that If we have a bunch of different winners of preps we may be looking at horses like Shanghai Bobby needing to win a prep to get in. Say he breaks poorly or gets a bad trip and runs 4th in his comeback race like the Fountain of Youth or Gotham. He will have 25 points at that point and would likely need to hit the board in another of the big preps to get in. The runner up's in the BC juvy more or less got a few meaningless points which is going to further erode horsemans desire to run in these races.

I think BC Juvy should be a win and you are in. Also they should assign point values for Grade 1, Grade 2 and Grade 3 regardless of whether they happen in 2yo or 3yo year.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by jms62

I think BC Juvy should be a win and you are in. Also they should assign point values for Grade 1, Grade 2 and Grade 3 regardless of whether they happen in 2yo or 3yo year.

Hopefully they will realize the flaws in the current system and adjust it but I doubt they will

[Conrad]

He's trained by Pletcher - i'm worried he won't even get to the Derby

Hes had enough had a brutal trip in the Juvenile and managed a close second.

Favorite for the Cash Call Futurity. If he wins, Reddam will be giving the trophy to himself.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by helicopter11

Hes had enough had a brutal trip in the Juvenile and managed a close second.

Favorite for the Cash Call Futurity. If he wins, Reddam will be giving the trophy to himself.

I don't know if I'd call his trip brutal. He sat a perfect trip for most of the race. He did have the trouble where he had to wait and checked, but honestly, he was on the best part of the track for most of the race and had every chance to go by and didn't.

Without knowing who is in the Cash Call I'm not going to say he's a bet against. But I will be interested in playing against him if Capo Bastone or Power Broker show up in there.

[richard burch]

the way he waits for other horses may be more of a concern.

but when the other horses come to him he shows a lot of heart.

just keep someone like julian le-pew off his back and he will be fine.

go rosie!

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by richard burch

the way he waits for other horses may be more of a concern.

but when the other horses come to him he shows a lot of heart.

just keep someone like julian le-pew off his back and he will be fine.

go rosie!

I think that was nonsense about him waiting on other horses. Has he ever waited on horses before? He normally wins by open lengths. He wasn't waiting on horses in the BC. He was very tired, which he should have been after going :45 2/5. He dug down deep at the end when he saw the other horse but that doesn't mean he wasn't tired. He stopped because he was dead tired, which he should have been.

As Doug said, if there was a half-way decent closer in the race Shanghai would have gotten beat. He came to a dead walk that final 1/8th of a mile. I'm not saying he ran a bad race. Any horse would be leg weary after setting those kinds of fractions.

If he runs a similar race in the Derby, he won't have much chance of winning. He's going to have to change his running style to win the Derby. He's obviously a good horse. He might be able to change his running style. The odds are against it but it is certainly possible.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I don't know if I'd call his trip brutal. He sat a perfect trip for most of the race. He did have the trouble where he had to wait and checked, but honestly, he was on the best part of the track for most of the race and had every chance to go by and didn't.

Without knowing who is in the Cash Call I'm not going to say he's a bet against. But I will be interested in playing against him if Capo Bastone or Power Broker show up in there.

I was alive to Power Broker on a $5 Pick 3 , he didnt give me much at all. Chalk it up to the Sans Lasix crapshoot that we will have to endure more of next year.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by jms62

I was alive to Power Broker on a $5 Pick 3 , he didnt give me much at all. Chalk it up to the Sans Lasix crapshoot that we will have to endure more of next year.

He had a trip too. Off slow, carried super wide into the first turn, premature move, while on worst part of the track.

He's better than that.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I don't like Shanghain Bobby's Derby chances at all. He was falling apart late in the BC Juvenile...there was just no Action This Day or Anees type in the race to blow past him late.

A lot of Pletcher 2yo's will improve noticeably when Gulfstream opens up and gets going. With less pace pressure and lasix he should be fine at 8f and maybe fine up to 9f ... but the Derby is a different animal for a horse with his running style...unless of course he shows the unlikely dimension and becomes a converted mid-pack horse.

I think people forget what a great race Bodemeister ran in the Kentucky Derby. He outran a Breeders Cup Sprint winner-- set an absolutely insane killer pace -- blew the race apart on the far turn and had five on the Derby field in the stretch -- and just came up short late.

I'm sure Baffert probably wishes he didn't run him back in the Preakness off of such a gut-wrenching performance.

How many lengths better was Uncle Mo's juvy win

[hondo]

In looking at his breeding I agree he does appear to have distance limitations and he appears to be best bred for middle distances. I may be wrong but his very upper limit appears to be a 1 1/8 and he would not be my Derby choice. I too did not pay him the attention he deserved in the BC, but you have to give him credit he appears he wins wins even though he has been "knocked" in many of his races.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by freddymo

How many lengths better was Uncle Mo's juvy win

Shanghai Bobby did win the race the hard way and it was a very strong pace and he had no lasix -- but Uncle Mo's BC Juvy was obviously a ton better.

Using another Pletcher horse who started in the BC Juvie -- I'd compare the performance with Chapel Royal's 3rd place finish at Santa Anita in the Juvie the year Action This Day won a collapse-fest in a race where the 1st, 2nd, and 4th place finishers raced 12th, 10th, and 11th early on in a field of 12.

Pletcher's Chapel Royal was the only pace survivor.