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#1
10-31-2012, 02:03 PM
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you cant trust any polls which are 1 - 3 % points difference. Doesnt matter if Romney is ahead by 1-3% or Obama is ahead by 1-3%. most of these swing states are completely up in the air. It's game on at this point.
Obama's good job of getting the right help and funds signed off for this crazy storm. it's certainly not going to hurt him. I dont think anyone should be confident that their candidate is going to win at this moment. I think its going to be extremely close like 2000 was.
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#2
10-31-2012, 02:18 PM
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Why do you think Nate Silver has been attacked publicly as "gay" and "effeminent" by conservatives in the past three days? He's accurate and he has Obama easily winning, and the only reaction from some on the right is to throw homophobic slurs because they are mentally five years old. The popular vote doesn't matter, although I think Obama will easily win that with 51% of the vote. The electoral vote is the only thing that matters. Obama started out so far ahead, months ago, that Romney would have had to virtually sweep 8 swing states to win. It was never in the cards for that to happen. Romney had a massive uphill battle from the start, and they knew that. Obama only needed to win 2 swing states from the start. Now he's ahead in all but NC, as he nearly always has been. Romney has never been close to 270, always behind. Obama was always ahead, only having to not lose many. The election was over months ago, Anti. I'm not saying that because I'm voting for Obama, I'm saying that as someone who has watched politics closely for years. We'll see Tuesday. But seriously - the narrative in the media about how close this is, "neck and neck", is very puzzling, given the polling over the past two months. I think they are just trying to make a horse race story out of it.
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"Have the clean racing people run any ads explaining that giving a horse a Starbucks and a chocolate poppyseed muffin for breakfast would likely result in a ten year suspension for the trainer?" - Dr. Andrew Roberts
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#3
10-31-2012, 02:52 PM
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when almost all polls are very close in swing states, of course everyone is calling it neck and neck.
The only think I'm seeing, is that Romney supporters are the enthusiatic (sp?) ones this time around, where Obama was in 2008. Also I really believe Obama wont be able to get all those usual non voters who came out in 2008, to vote again in 2012. He just hasnt dont anything extraordinary. You can think whatever you want. Guesses dont count. Tuesday night is what counts. We'll see. My guess is it will go either way. If I was betting, I'd bet Romney for the value, though it will be tough to beat Obama when states like Cali and NY always vote Dem. If you would have asked me 2 months ago, I would have said Romney didnt have a chance in hell. It's a close ballgame going into the fourth quarter now. Don't be surprised if Romney takes Florida and a bunch of other swing states. I dont see how he wins Ohio though, unless as people here have mentioned, there is bad weather in Cleveland.
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#4
10-31-2012, 02:53 PM
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you keep saying the polling the past two months.
Two months ago was a completely different than right now. Two months ago no longer count. You have to look at polls in the past week or two. Ever since the first debate, things have been swinging Romneys way.
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