BC Juvenile - Top 3 finishers

Originally Posted by oracle80

Dude its so hard to say how much that ridiculous scraped inside benefitted the winner as compared to CQ who was moving at the same time yet forced to go to the parking lot while the winner slid through inside.
My guess is that they are a LOT closer in ability than 10 lengths, LOL!.
But I feel both are better than Hunter.
I wish someday CD would learn to leave the track alone on big race days, they don't get it and never will, and two more horses were injured on that pavement.

Hey Oracle--question for you---it seems to me that Quay seems to find trouble during a race. Albeit not serious trouble but just enough to cause a little disturbance in his running. Do you think he is one of those horses that finds trouble instead of being able to stay out of it for a clear run.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Hey Oracle--question for you---it seems to me that Quay seems to find trouble during a race. Albeit not serious trouble but just enough to cause a little disturbance in his running. Do you think he is one of those horses that finds trouble instead of being able to stay out of it for a clear run.

I think the trouble was that the inside part of the track resembled a paved highway and he was moving in tandem with SS and got spun 9 wide and had to run sideways while the winner got the incredible clean rail run notonly saving every inch of ground but doing so on the "yellow brick road" as he did so.
Not gonna say the outcome would have been different with reversed trips because the winner ran incredibly.

[Revolution]

The only trouble Circular Quay ran into was a far better horse.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by oracle80

I think the trouble was that the inside part of the track resembled a paved highway.

i still don't see it. i didn't notice it on saturday and even after hearing all the screaming i don't see it.

horses won off the rail, and horses that were "supposed" to win wilted on the rail. i contend that it was a much larger issue of pace in the races and better horses winning (which i confirm over and over the more i watch the races) than it was any sort of inside golden path home.

[avance2000]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

i still don't see it. i didn't notice it on saturday and even after hearing all the screaming i don't see it.

in the first 4 bc races run on dirt....horses breaking from post 1 were 4 for 4.
you didn't notice that? and now you still don't see that? um.........okay.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by avance2000

in the first 4 bc races run on dirt....horses breaking from post 1 were 4 for 4.
you didn't notice that? and now you still don't see that? um.........okay.

So it was a magical post position? This supposed rail bias only benefited the horses that broke from PP 1 but not any of the other horses that ran on the rail? And of course the magic dust was all gone by the time Brother Derek got in there.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by avance2000

in the first 4 bc races run on dirt....horses breaking from post 1 were 4 for 4.
you didn't notice that? and now you still don't see that? um.........okay.

No, it was much more like this....

I noticed that Dreaming of Anna, wearing saddle cloth #1 was allowed to lope around the oval at her own leisure and the rest of the field ignored her while she was loose on the lead. Then when only one horse got near her, she had plenty left in the tank, as nobody had challenged her the whole way.

In the next race I then noticed an entire flight of horses running suicidal fractions up front. Then the two closers kicked in and the one running on the rail saved all the ground and drew off impressively while the favorite took the overland route and likely gave up about 5 free lengths to the winner. The rail is the shortest way home. That's call geometry, not a bias.

In the Sprint, the horse wearing the #1 finished first, but did you not notice how the horse wearing the #1 was not on the inside for almost the entire race? He broke and then was out in the 3/4 path the entre rest of the way. According to THAT logic, Octave should have easily caught Dreaming of Anna, because NOW you're claiming that the 3 path, and NOT the rail is the place to be. So which is it? A rail bias or a 3-path bias?

Round Pond ran the best race. Period.

And in the Classic, if this rail bias existed, you'd think that Mr. Darley superhorse Bernardini would have at least offered a response to Invasor, right? And that Brother Derek would have been long gone in the first place because he had the rail the whole way. Instead, Invasor came home several lengths wide and still blew by the huge favorite. That's not a bias, that's called a horse race in which the best horse wins.

Anything else?

[avance2000]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

you'd think that Mr. Darley superhorse Bernardini would have at least offered a response to Invasor, right?

no i would not think that....because bernardini is certainly no superhorse. invasor was in my opinion clearly the best horse in the race (which is why i correctly bet him so heavily and had been telling everyone around here for a week that he was going to win) so it did not matter.
i was not saying that every horse that had the rail would automatically win, or that every horse with the 1 post would get the rail. but when horses keep making huge moves up the rail, and the #1 horse keeps winning every race, i think it would be something which a good capper would notice, which you said you did not.
it seemed fast to me but i wasn't sure. then i heard doug o'neil say it was insanely fast....and i trust his opinion.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by avance2000

no i would not think that....because bernardini is certainly no superhorse. invasor was in my opinion clearly the best horse in the race (which is why i correctly bet him so heavily and had been telling everyone around here for a week that he was going to win) so it did not matter.
i was not saying that every horse that had the rail would automatically win, or that every horse with the 1 post would get the rail. but when horses keep making huge moves up the rail, and the #1 horse keeps winning every race, i think it would be something which a good capper would notice, which you said you did not.
it seemed fast to me but i wasn't sure. then i heard doug o'neil say it was insanely fast....and i trust his opinion.

i know you loved invasor on saturday, and i've been there with you all summer -- no surprise to me on saturday at all that he won.

i just don't think that this whole boo-hooing that everyone is doing about the rail being a "paved highway" and moaning about the CD crew souping it up is all it's cracked up to be.

only for round pond could a case be made that the rail made a difference in my opinion -- the other four are very easy to explain and all four of those clearly and quite easily refute the notion that the inside was heavily biased.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

No, it was much more like this....

I noticed that Dreaming of Anna, wearing saddle cloth #1 was allowed to lope around the oval at her own leisure and the rest of the field ignored her while she was loose on the lead. Then when only one horse got near her, she had plenty left in the tank, as nobody had challenged her the whole way.

In the next race I then noticed an entire flight of horses running suicidal fractions up front. Then the two closers kicked in and the one running on the rail saved all the ground and drew off impressively while the favorite took the overland route and likely gave up about 5 free lengths to the winner. The rail is the shortest way home. That's call geometry, not a bias.

In the Sprint, the horse wearing the #1 finished first, but did you not notice how the horse wearing the #1 was not on the inside for almost the entire race? He broke and then was out in the 3/4 path the entre rest of the way. According to THAT logic, Octave should have easily caught Dreaming of Anna, because NOW you're claiming that the 3 path, and NOT the rail is the place to be. So which is it? A rail bias or a 3-path bias?

Round Pond ran the best race. Period.

And in the Classic, if this rail bias existed, you'd think that Mr. Darley superhorse Bernardini would have at least offered a response to Invasor, right? And that Brother Derek would have been long gone in the first place because he had the rail the whole way. Instead, Invasor came home several lengths wide and still blew by the huge favorite. That's not a bias, that's called a horse race in which the best horse wins.

Anything else?

Now you've done it. You're getting into details and using logic.
What will it be next, facts?

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by oracle80

I think the trouble was that the inside part of the track resembled a paved highway and he was moving in tandem with SS and got spun 9 wide and had to run sideways while the winner got the incredible clean rail run notonly saving every inch of ground but doing so on the "yellow brick road" as he did so.
Not gonna say the outcome would have been different with reversed trips because the winner ran incredibly.

I agree with Ora with the exceptio, if Calvin was 1/2 a jump slower getting to the inside hole he would have been ccut off and we probably wouldent even be talking about Streey Sense and possiblytalking about the crappy ride Calvin gave.