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-   -   BC Juvenile - Top 3 finishers (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6630)

miraja2 11-07-2006 06:57 AM
BC Juvenile - Top 3 finishers
 
Which one do you think will have the best 3yo year?
I know it is impossible to know.....and it is ridiculously early to speculate on something like that......but I find these horses more interesting than many top BC juvies in the past (and therefore more worthy of this sort of premature discussion) for a couple reasons.
1) It seems like a lot of the time a good 2yo runs the entire year and we never figure out if he can run behind other horses. Not the case here, they have all proved they can do that.
2) Pedigree - All 3 are by sires who were serious 10f horses (street cry - thunder gulch - aptitude) and none of those horses did their best running at 2.
3) None of them regressed in their 2yo season. All three seemed to keep improving over the course of the year.
I suppose the biggest question mark is Great Hunter since his only big win came on the poly, but he was solid if not spectacular on the dirt, and I think most Aptitudes tend to be late bloomers like their old man.
But that being said.....my pick is still Quay.

cakes44 11-07-2006 07:12 AM
Where did the top 3 finishers run their final preps? On polytrack? No way.

oracle80 11-07-2006 07:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by miraja2
Which one do you think will have the best 3yo year?
I know it is impossible to know.....and it is ridiculously early to speculate on something like that......but I find these horses more interesting than many top BC juvies in the past (and therefore more worthy of this sort of premature discussion) for a couple reasons.
1) It seems like a lot of the time a good 2yo runs the entire year and we never figure out if he can run behind other horses. Not the case here, they have all proved they can do that.
2) Pedigree - All 3 are by sires who were serious 10f horses (street cry - thunder gulch - aptitude) and none of those horses did their best running at 2.
3) None of them regressed in their 2yo season. All three seemed to keep improving over the course of the year.
I suppose the biggest question mark is Great Hunter since his only big win came on the poly, but he was solid if not spectacular on the dirt, and I think most Aptitudes tend to be late bloomers like their old man.



But that being said.....my pick is still Quay.


Dude its so hard to say how much that ridiculous scraped inside benefitted the winner as compared to CQ who was moving at the same time yet forced to go to the parking lot while the winner slid through inside.
My guess is that they are a LOT closer in ability than 10 lengths, LOL!.
But I feel both are better than Hunter.
I wish someday CD would learn to leave the track alone on big race days, they don't get it and never will, and two more horses were injured on that pavement.

Bigsmc 11-07-2006 07:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by oracle80
I wish someday CD would learn to leave the track alone on big race days, they don't get it and never will, and two more horses were injured on that pavement.
CD is not alone in this. I absolutely hate when tracks do this.

I assume they're hoping for a track record or two to fall to further hype the event. But what it ends up doing is ruining very nice horses and making handicapping the races a joke.

I could care less what the final time is. Give us a fair track and let the best horse win.

miraja2 11-07-2006 07:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cakes44
Where did the top 3 finishers run their final preps? On polytrack? No way.
I don't understand what you mean by this.
I am no polyfan, but what does the fact that they ran their final prep on polytrack have to do with how well they will do at three?

oracle80 11-07-2006 07:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cakes44
Where did the top 3 finishers run their final preps? On polytrack? No way.
Yeah in a race with COMPLETELY different form than this one, LOL!!! Some correlation there huh?

cakes44 11-07-2006 07:33 AM
Just thought it was interesting. I think Great Hunter is a nice 3-year-old prospect. I don't think CQ will get much better, and I really don't know a whole lot about Street Sense's breeding to be honest.

oracle80 11-07-2006 07:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cakes44
Just thought it was interesting. I think Great Hunter is a nice 3-year-old prospect. I don't think CQ will get much better, and I really don't know a whole lot about Street Sense's breeding to be honest.
Street Sense is still an enigma to me. To explode like that, even with the aid of a ridiculously strong bias, was incredible.
I think hes a fascinating horse, and really wanna see him run again.

blackthroatedwind 11-07-2006 07:40 AM
Anyone that actually knows HOW to watch races knows that Street Sense was MUCH the best in the Breeder's Futurity at Keeneland. This was discussed at length on this board after that race by, at least, Eurobounce and myself. That may not translate to his domination Saturday but he was certainly at least four lengths better than Circular Quay at Keeneland.

His win was no surprise to actual trip handicappers.

jpops757 11-07-2006 07:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by oracle80
Dude its so hard to say how much that ridiculous scraped inside benefitted the winner as compared to CQ who was moving at the same time yet forced to go to the parking lot while the winner slid through inside.
My guess is that they are a LOT closer in ability than 10 lengths, LOL!.
But I feel both are better than Hunter.
I wish someday CD would learn to leave the track alone on big race days, they don't get it and never will, and two more horses were injured on that pavement.
I maintain that the winner was the best horse Sat just happened to take the shortcut and have lots of luck to get through a fast closing hole. If I had to pick a winner from the juvi it would be CQ.

oracle80 11-07-2006 08:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Anyone that actually knows HOW to watch races knows that Street Sense was MUCH the best in the Breeder's Futurity at Keeneland. This was discussed at length on this board after that race by, at least, Eurobounce and myself. That may not translate to his domination Saturday but he was certainly at least four lengths better than Circular Quay at Keeneland.

His win was no surprise to actual trip handicappers.
Thats assuming an exact translation to dirt from Poly. A big assumption. And i freely admitted after the Futurity that Street Sense was the best in that race. I thought his grass breeding was a factor in that poly race. Apparently he was just blossoming. Bias or no bias, he was tons the best and gets the props.

Buffymommy 11-07-2006 08:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cakes44
Just thought it was interesting. I think Great Hunter is a nice 3-year-old prospect. I don't think CQ will get much better, and I really don't know a whole lot about Street Sense's breeding to be honest.

I am definately keeping an eye on Great Hunter. I want to see if he can move forward from his two year old campaign.

lemoncrush 11-07-2006 08:22 AM
I think we'll see all 3 of these line up (barring injury) on the first Saturday in May. All 3 are models of consistency, and have a chance to get better.

The real question is, which horses in the rest of the field will improve to be a factor in the road to the derby next spring? Judging from the past few years, there probably won't be more than 2 or 3 from the juvy race that even make it to the big dance.

eurobounce 11-07-2006 09:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by oracle80
Dude its so hard to say how much that ridiculous scraped inside benefitted the winner as compared to CQ who was moving at the same time yet forced to go to the parking lot while the winner slid through inside.
My guess is that they are a LOT closer in ability than 10 lengths, LOL!.
But I feel both are better than Hunter.
I wish someday CD would learn to leave the track alone on big race days, they don't get it and never will, and two more horses were injured on that pavement.
Hey Oracle--question for you---it seems to me that Quay seems to find trouble during a race. Albeit not serious trouble but just enough to cause a little disturbance in his running. Do you think he is one of those horses that finds trouble instead of being able to stay out of it for a clear run.

oracle80 11-07-2006 09:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eurobounce
Hey Oracle--question for you---it seems to me that Quay seems to find trouble during a race. Albeit not serious trouble but just enough to cause a little disturbance in his running. Do you think he is one of those horses that finds trouble instead of being able to stay out of it for a clear run.
I think the trouble was that the inside part of the track resembled a paved highway and he was moving in tandem with SS and got spun 9 wide and had to run sideways while the winner got the incredible clean rail run notonly saving every inch of ground but doing so on the "yellow brick road" as he did so.
Not gonna say the outcome would have been different with reversed trips because the winner ran incredibly.

Revolution 11-07-2006 10:01 AM
The only trouble Circular Quay ran into was a far better horse.

brianwspencer 11-07-2006 10:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by oracle80
I think the trouble was that the inside part of the track resembled a paved highway.
i still don't see it. i didn't notice it on saturday and even after hearing all the screaming i don't see it.

horses won off the rail, and horses that were "supposed" to win wilted on the rail. i contend that it was a much larger issue of pace in the races and better horses winning (which i confirm over and over the more i watch the races) than it was any sort of inside golden path home.

jpops757 11-07-2006 10:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by oracle80
I think the trouble was that the inside part of the track resembled a paved highway and he was moving in tandem with SS and got spun 9 wide and had to run sideways while the winner got the incredible clean rail run notonly saving every inch of ground but doing so on the "yellow brick road" as he did so.
Not gonna say the outcome would have been different with reversed trips because the winner ran incredibly.
I agree with Ora with the exceptio, if Calvin was 1/2 a jump slower getting to the inside hole he would have been ccut off and we probably wouldent even be talking about Streey Sense and possiblytalking about the crappy ride Calvin gave.

LARHAGE 11-07-2006 12:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by miraja2
Which one do you think will have the best 3yo year?
I know it is impossible to know.....and it is ridiculously early to speculate on something like that......but I find these horses more interesting than many top BC juvies in the past (and therefore more worthy of this sort of premature discussion) for a couple reasons.
1) It seems like a lot of the time a good 2yo runs the entire year and we never figure out if he can run behind other horses. Not the case here, they have all proved they can do that.
2) Pedigree - All 3 are by sires who were serious 10f horses (street cry - thunder gulch - aptitude) and none of those horses did their best running at 2.
3) None of them regressed in their 2yo season. All three seemed to keep improving over the course of the year.
I suppose the biggest question mark is Great Hunter since his only big win came on the poly, but he was solid if not spectacular on the dirt, and I think most Aptitudes tend to be late bloomers like their old man.
But that being said.....my pick is still Quay.
I like Street Sense, I don't like horses that have to have things go perfectly in order to win, Circular Quay lags too far behind, Great Hunter is a plodder. I like the way Street Sense just quickened in a heart beat and blew away the field, he has a very nice way of going, seems tractible and I really liked Street Cry. I also would much rather see Carl Nafzger with a nice, exciting 2 year old than Todd Ho-Hum Pletcher and Coolmore. :D

avance2000 11-07-2006 12:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by brianwspencer
i still don't see it. i didn't notice it on saturday and even after hearing all the screaming i don't see it.
in the first 4 bc races run on dirt....horses breaking from post 1 were 4 for 4.
you didn't notice that? and now you still don't see that? um.........okay.


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