Fever spike knocks Alpha out of Belmont..

[pmayjr]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I'll Have Another has a bulls-eye on his back. Absolutely they're going to try and race ride him.

If they can keep him inside, they will.

You really think everyone is just going to be oblivious to the fact that he's in the race?

What I'm saying is, I think this is different than what Jerry Bailey did with Eddington in the Smarty Jones Belmont. Bailey knew Eddington had no shot so he rode him into the ground to rabbit Smarty. A few may try to do that to IHA. I get that.

I just don't think it will be Union Rags.

[slotdirt]

I was never a massive Eddington fan, but to say he had "no shot" in the 2004 Belmont is a little over the top. By that logic, neither did Rock Hard Ten? Eddington was a millionaire GI winner for God's sake.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I was never a massive Eddington fan, but to say he had "no shot" in the 2004 Belmont is a little over the top. By that logic, neither did Rock Hard Ten? Eddington was a millionaire GI winner for God's sake.

The opening half mile in that years Belmont was 48.65 (slow pace)

The middle half mile in that years Belmont was 46.79 (an absolutely sizzling midde half!)

The final half mile in that years Belmont was 52.06 seconds (pretty slow)

Basically -- all of the real running happened during the second half mile in that race. And it happened because Rock Hard Ten attacked Smarty Jones at an incredibly pre-mature stage of the race.

[Calzone Lord]

Here was Royal Assault's running line:



He ran the most efficient race possible.

He was about 2 lengths back after a quarter, 3.5 lengths back after a half mile -- when the race horse race started -- he plummeted to 17 lengths back after a mile -- and he gained a lot of ground in the stretch to finish 3rd beaten 9 lengths ahead of horses like Rock Hard Ten, Eddington, and Purge ... three horses that he couldn't dream of even warming up.

[Calzone Lord]

Amazingly, to Birdstone's credit, he only lost 2 lengths of ground during that supersonic middle half mile.

He was 5th by 3 lengths after a half mile and 4th by 5 lengths after a mile.

Five of the nine horses in that race lost more than 11 lengths through the middle half mile.

It was basically where all the real running occurred.

Smarty Jones deserved to win that race, but Birdstone wasn't super lucky. He also had to work hard in the middle and ran ok.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Amazingly, to Birdstone's credit, he only lost 2 lengths of ground during that supersonic middle half mile.

He was 5th by 3 lengths after a half mile and 4th by 5 lengths after a mile.

Five of the nine horses in that race lost more than 11 lengths through the middle half mile.

It was basically where all the real running occurred.

Smarty Jones deserved to win that race, but Birdstone wasn't super lucky. He also had to work hard in the middle and ran ok.

If people went back and actually watched that Belmont, they have to be very surprised at how close Birdstone was the entire race. It was far from a situation where he sucked up into a collapsed race.

[pmayjr]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If people went back and actually watched that Belmont, they have to be very surprised at how close Birdstone was the entire race. It was far from a situation where he sucked up into a collapsed race.

watching that race with my pops, I remember going into the stretch, I said to my dad "uh oh. That 4 is gaining on him" I didn't bet the race (beside a souvenir win ticket), so I didn't even know that the 4 was Birdstone until later in the stretch. But did anyone? Was over 30-1 right?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

What I'm saying is, I think this is different than what Jerry Bailey did with Eddington in the Smarty Jones Belmont. Bailey knew Eddington had no shot so he rode him into the ground to rabbit Smarty. A few may try to do that to IHA. I get that.

I just don't think it will be Union Rags.

Bailey -- a good judge of pace -- tried briefly to hustle Eddington early into a soft pace to prevent Smarty Jones with getting away with murder.

The real idiotic ride in that race came from Rock Hard Ten's jockey. He forced Smarty Jones hand through absolutely sizzling middle fractions.

Rock Hard Ten finished 5th beaten a dozen lengths -- but he unquestionably cost Smarty Jones that race.

Eddington never did anything to even remotely bother Smarty Jones. In fact, I still can't figure out why people find fault with his ride.

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Bailey -- a good judge of pace -- tried briefly to hustle Eddington early into a soft pace to prevent Smarty Jones with getting away with murder.

The real idiotic ride in that race came from Rock Hard Ten's jockey. He forced Smarty Jones hand through absolutely sizzling middle fractions.

Rock Hard Ten finished 5th beaten a dozen lengths -- but he unquestionably cost Smarty Jones that race.

Eddington never did anything to even remotely bother Smarty Jones. In fact, I still can't figure out why people find fault with his ride.

Because people don't like Jerry Bailey? That's all I got.

Bailey might have ridden Eddington like he had no shot, but that didn't necessarily mean Eddington actually had no shot.

[pmayjr]

I guess I need to re-watch the race. It's just what I thought at the time and agree with people's take on that. If I re-watch it now I'd maybe see it like that.

As for Eddington, he did a lot of his damage after the Belmont if I remember correctly? He came into the race winning the Lone Star race right? But he got most of his wins after the Belmont?

[slotdirt]

I believe your boy Eddington was third in the Preakness in his start immediately prior to the Belmont. Definitely a no hoper.

[pmayjr]

And how many lengths did Smarty win the Preakness by? How many? I bet you were drinking the Smarty Kool-aid just like everyone else was after that race

[pmayjr]

I'm not trying to side-track this thread too much. I'm just saying I think Rags runs his race and doesn't worry about IHA. Matz has him in here thinking he can win this thing his way. So others may try to race ride IHA, but I don't think Rags will do that. All I'm saying.

[slotdirt]

I'm not sure of your point here, but admitting you were wrong about Jerry Bailey and Eddington in the 2004 Belmont was a good start.

[pmayjr]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I'm not sure of your point here, but admitting you were wrong about Jerry Bailey and Eddington in the 2004 Belmont was a good start.

I haven't re-watched the race yet. I'm not conceding anything. You still haven't answered the question. How many lengths did Smarty win the Preakness over 3rd place Eddington? Oh. But Eddington was just getting warmed up right? He needed that race. A solid 4th in the Belmont. Solid.

Also notice that in the latter part of 04 and early 05 is when Eddington really did start winning, like I mentioned.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The real idiotic ride in that race came from Rock Hard Ten's jockey. He forced Smarty Jones hand through absolutely sizzling middle fractions.

Who'd ever have thunk that a sentence would be formed that contained the words idiotic, Rock Hard Ten, and jockey?