Wise Dan

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I'm far from an authority on the Beyer process for his figs at Keeneland as well.

Obviously, horses who made the lead ran impossibly well all day from a Beyer figure standpoint and a 117 for Wise Dan isn't any more eye-popping than the Beyer figure every pacesetter on that card ran relative to prior ability.

However...looking at the last two routes this day VS Blue Grass Stakes day... what I'm seeing is not adding up.



A day like that I'm just hunting for a few speeds to play against -- and a few closers who also didn't get pace and have a right to improve next time. But man, 117 in a synthetic route will really stand the test of time if he sticks by it.

I did forget about how extreme the adjustment to the charts Beyer made could be. The 117 would have been about a 112 on the old scale. Using that, the variants of the 8th and 9th would have been only two points apart at most. There was no real split. I still don't agree with the 117, but not by as much as I thought initially. The biggest reason is I don't agree is the way he handled the synthetic adjustment.

I'm going with a 109 and moving on.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I did forget about how extreme the adjustment to the charts Beyer made could be.

I'm not familar with the new synthetic chart they're using...but here is what was confusing me yesterday.

Blue Grass day was April 14th and Bel Ali day April 22nd. Here are the elapsed times in DRF Formulator based on beaten length adjustments:






Eye of the Leopard and Heavy Breathing both ran a final time of 1:49.39 based on BLA. According to Trakus -- Heavy Breathing's final time was 0.06 seconds faster than Eye Of The Leopards.

Eye of the Leopard's Beyer is an 88 and Heavy Breathing's Beyer is an 83. This indicates the track was 5 points faster on Blue Grass day.

Another way to look at it is Big Blue Kitten got a 98 Beyer for running 1:48.42 and Dullahan got a 98 Beyer for running 1:47.94. Formulator had Dullahan running 0.48 seconds faster -- Trakus had Dullahan running 0.50 seconds faster ... thus, the track was 0.50 faster on Blue Grass Day because they both got 98 Beyers.








Current Design runs 1:44.07 on Blue Grass day. Zokarian runs 1:43.95 in the 9th race on Ben Ali day. Formulator has Zokarian running 0.12 seconds faster. Trakus has Zokarian running 0.18 seconds faster than Current Design.

Zokarian recieved a Beyer of 76 and Current Design (who ran 0.12-to-0.18 slower) a Beyer of 79.

That would indicate the track is 4 points faster on Ben Ali day.


You're dealing with all fairly similarly paced races here.

If the 8th and 9th race on Ben Ali day are of the same variant...I guess the Blue Grass Stakes was cut loose from all the other poly rotues on April 14th.

Was the Blue Grass really a 107 and cut loose to a 98? If not, how could the track be 5 points faster at 9fs on Blue Grass day and 4 points faster at 8.5 on Ben Ali day?

If I had the Parallel time charts for Keeneland that they're using I'd know this. That was basically the confusing part to me.

[cmorioles]

I didn't bother trying to figure out the new speed chart. I was able to figure it out this way. I just convert what the new Beyer is to what it would have been old style, and use the old chart.

old beyer = ((beyer - 70) * (40.0 / 45.0) + 70);

So above, for Wise Dan it is 112 as an example.

Using that formula, for Sunday, we had this:
R3 Raw Beyer, 92, Old Beyer, 76, variant 16
R8 Raw Beyer, 134, Old Beyer, 112, variant 22
R9 Raw Beyer, 107, Old Beyer, 83, variant 24

I'm sure my formula isn't perfect, but good enough. This is why Beyer says he only broke out the 3rd race.

Here is Blue Grass day:

R1 Raw Beyer, 87, Old Beyer, 66, variant 21
R4 Raw Beyer, 103, Old Beyer, 82, variant 21
R6 Raw Beyer, 102, Old Beyer, 82, variant 20
R7 Raw Beyer, 101, Old Beyer, 81, variant 20
R11 Raw Beyer, 122, Old Beyer, 95, variant 27

The race that was broken out was the Blue Grass by about 5 points.

For what it is worth, I have Dullahan faster than Beyer because I didn't agree.

[Calzone Lord]

Interesting CJ.

Dick Jerardi wrote a column about the figure:

http://www.drf.com/news/jerardi-noth...r-speed-figure

Wise Dan ran an absolutely terrible race off of the layoff last year (over the poly at KEE) and gradually turned it around nicely. He won the Presque Isle Mile from the 9-hole with a wide trip against a rail bias and ran a very strong 98 figure. It was the most impressive performance all year at this meet. Wise Dan ended the year with smashing wins on dirt and poly.

I like Wise Dan a lot and he's certainly not one of these horses who has a history of running big races off of layoffs and backing up.

However, I think Jerardi missed two important points in his column. The speed biased track -- and the fact that races were badly fracturing all day long on the poly. Even if you have 100% faith in the fact he ran a 117 - the conditions of the track that day really propelled him...and every other first call leader on Poly.