2012 Triple Crown Trail: 11 try to deny I'll Have Another

[NTamm1215]

According to Churchill Downs PR, Liaison is shipping to CD. Baffert is apparently going to start he and Secret Circle in an effort to help his chances of bookending the field.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

According to Churchill Downs PR, Liaison is shipping to CD. Baffert is apparently going to start he and Secret Circle in an effort to help his chances of bookending the field.

With the race shaping up to be pretty wide open, I"ll take as many auto tosses as possible (Liason). I probably wouldn't use Secret Circle either, but his ability to hit the board is far greater than Liason.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

With the race shaping up to be pretty wide open, I"ll take as many auto tosses as possible (Liason). I probably wouldn't use Secret Circle either, but his ability to hit the board is far greater than Liason.

I don't think either has a chance to hit the board, but Liason might actually have a better chance to suck up into something than Secret Circle considering their running styles and that there is no way Secret Circle wants 1 1/4 miles.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by pointman

I don't think either has a chance to hit the board, but Liason might actually have a better chance to suck up into something than Secret Circle considering their running styles and that there is no way Secret Circle wants 1 1/4 miles.

Running styles can change.

Mine That Bird and Super Saver both had been pressing paces and fading sharper through the stretch with the exact same running style as Secret Circle. They basically had the exact same running style as Secret Circle, but both were wildly inferior horses.

Borel simply took both of them way back and made one late run.

The good horses in Secret Circle's family are all deep closing routers.

If they do run him in the Kentucky Derby, they should take him well off the pace. On speed figures, he fits with every horse in the race not named Bodemeister. On Ragozin's he's probably the second fastest horse in this race... and his Arkansas Derby was better than older males in the OP Handicap because of weight and ground loss.

Liason has no chance of getting anything.

[Calzone Lord]

Anyone looking to re-live the greatness that is Super Saver and Mine That Bird:


* Super Saver makes the lead and fades in a weak Tampa Bay Derby:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnmLRCgB550


* Line of David outgames Super Saver in the Arkansas Derby:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5sf7UmQTus



* Mine That Bird storms to the lead at the 1/4 pole in the Sunland Derby and fades badly in the stretch run to finish 4th.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TwhwKe3YGY

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Running styles can change.

Mine That Bird and Super Saver both had been pressing paces and fading sharper through the stretch with the exact same running style as Secret Circle. They basically had the exact same running style as Secret Circle, but both were wildly inferior horses.

Borel simply took both of them way back and made one late run.

The good horses in Secret Circle's family are all deep closing routers.

If they do run him in the Kentucky Derby, they should take him well off the pace. On speed figures, he fits with every horse in the race not named Bodemeister. On Ragozin's he's probably the second fastest horse in this race... and his Arkansas Derby was better than older males in the OP Handicap because of weight and ground loss.

Liason has no chance of getting anything.

Didn't he bear out sharply in the stretch?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by asudevil

Didn't he bear out sharply in the stretch?

Yes.

He should be freshened for the summer. He's already run in four Graded Stakes routes since the Breeders Cup.

If Baffert does run him in the Derby -- he had better change his running style. He's going to run mid-pack at absolute best if the goal is to take him as wide as possible and stalk from up close.

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Yes.

He should be freshened for the summer. He's already run in four Graded Stakes routes since the Breeders Cup.

If Baffert does run him in the Derby -- he had better change his running style. He's going to run mid-pack at absolute best if the goal is to take him as wide as possible and stalk from up close.

The question is can he change his running style in 3 weeks? They will have 2 works at best? Doesn't "bearing out" indicate exhaustion or some sort of physical issue?

I totally agree with the summer freshening idea. Same old story...why ruin a nice horse? (see Trinniberg connections)

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

According to Churchill Downs PR, Liaison is shipping to CD. Baffert is apparently going to start he and Secret Circle in an effort to help his chances of bookending the field.

perhaps liason will end up in the trial? i saw this morning that all three of his would share a plane ride up there....but who knows? we all know about his entering dantbgm a few years ago, but with ae's, that would be a waste.

maybe he's hoping they'll all 'dapple out'??

[tjfla]

They said Liaison will be shipping and they will determine if he goes on how he trains. Ill take him and SC both in the Derby-2 Auto Tosses for me!!

The Lexington might have a horse in the Derby still- Stirred Up(96,000)Morgan's Guerilla(100,000) News Pending(80,000),and Golden Ticket(70,000) are mention as MAYBE by drf.com. A Win by any of them would give them earnings which would move them just behind Reveron

[Mike]

Originally Posted by tjfla

They said Liaison will be shipping and they will determine if he goes on how he trains. Ill take him and SC both in the Derby-2 Auto Tosses for me!!

The Lexington might have a horse in the Derby still- Stirred Up(96,000)Morgan's Guerilla(100,000) News Pending(80,000),and Golden Ticket(70,000) are mention as MAYBE by drf.com. A Win by any of them would give them earnings which would move them just behind Reveron

A win by Morgan's Guerilla would put him in a tie with Reveron. What's the tie breaking procedure for the last spot?

[Mike]

In the case of a tie for the final entry position or the determination of all remaining starters, preference is given to horses that accumulated the highest earnings in non-restricted stakes races. If a tie still remains, the final spots in the starting gate will be determined by lot or a “shake.”

Reveron wins the tie breaker easily over Morgan

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Danzig

perhaps liason will end up in the trial? i saw this morning that all three of his would share a plane ride up there....but who knows? we all know about his entering dantbgm a few years ago, but with ae's, that would be a waste.

maybe he's hoping they'll all 'dapple out'??

I think they are going to run Liaison in the Derby. Baffert for at least two months has been saying that he doesn't like Santa Anita, so I'm guessing that if he trains well at all at CD, he's going to run him.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I think they are going to run Liaison in the Derby. Baffert for at least two months has been saying that he doesn't like Santa Anita, so I'm guessing that if he trains well at all at CD, he's going to run him.

If he didn't like Santa Anita, why did Bob keep running him there?

Liaison is slow. That's his real problem.

[tjfla]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If he didn't like Santa Anita, why did Bob keep running him there?

Liaison is slow. That's his real problem.

Baffert said Liaison hated the track from Day 1 but he saw it as the horse was getting work in. I think he will run in the Derby but they keep saying they wanna see how he trains on it

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If he didn't like Santa Anita, why did Bob keep running him there?

Liaison is slow. That's his real problem.

Not to mention that he broke his maiden at Santa Anita. Blaming the track is what you do when your horse has peaked and is now going the wrong direction.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If he didn't like Santa Anita, why did Bob keep running him there?

Liaison is slow. That's his real problem.

Yeah.

As to him running at SA, I'm guessing it's because he was already assured a spot in the Ky Derby and didn't need to ship him.

He did run better at HP, so who knows.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If he didn't like Santa Anita, why did Bob keep running him there?Liaison is slow. That's his real problem.

[tector]

You are looking at a race that could easily fall to pieces (it is too early to tell, of course). With that scenario possible, why would Baffert rule out a horse that could still be breathing after a 1.25? Have you seen some of the recent winners of this race? Does Liason's form look much worse than Mine That Bird's did? What is he supposed to do if the owners want to go?