Union Rags Derby odds?

[jms62]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

Even if Hansen wins the Bluegrass in a romp. I think UR will be the favorite for the Derby at 5-1.

I think they are using the Bluegrass purely as conditioning for Hansen and are looking for the first time Syn to Dirt pop.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by jms62

I think they are using the Bluegrass purely as conditioning for Hansen and are looking for the first time Syn to Dirt pop.

Agree, but with his record on synthetics, I'm not sure it matters.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by jms62

I think they are using the Bluegrass purely as conditioning for Hansen and are looking for the first time Syn to Dirt pop.

I presume you mean second-time synth to dirt...

[jms62]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

I presume you mean second-time synth to dirt...

Didn't look back at the PP's there, sorry.

[HaloWishingwell]

when in doubt Churchill will overbet Borel. Gemologist will take money from those fascinated with the undefeated

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

when in doubt Churchill will overbet Borel. Gemologist will take money from those fascinated with the undefeated

And those two are as likely as any other individuals. Borel was definately overbet last year, but Street Sense was fair, MTB underbet I guess, and Super Saver was about fair IMO.

[DaTruth]

I'm remaining neutral until the dapple reports start appearing.

[ranger5830]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

And those two are as likely as any other individuals. Borel was definately overbet last year, but Street Sense was fair, MTB underbet I guess, and Super Saver was about fair IMO.

MTB was severely overbet, even at 50-1. I think the consensus is that fair value for him as far as accurately predicting his chances to win was at least 150-1. But both the Borel factor and the Giacomo factor knocked his price down. Street Sense was probably about fair value but of course Borel had never won a derby at that point so his effect on the odds was much less than it is now, espescially among the casual fans who show up once a year just to bet the derby.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ranger5830

MTB was severely overbet, even at 50-1. I think the consensus is that fair value for him as far as accurately predicting his chances to win was at least 150-1. But both the Borel factor and the Giacomo factor knocked his price down.

I agree he was severely overbet. In my line MTB was 100-1.

--Dunbar