Dave "Bombs Away" Liftin

[Calzone Lord]

I always thought "best bet" should be re-termed "most likely winner" on the card.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I always thought "best bet" should be re-termed "most likely winner" on the card.

Exactly

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I always thought "best bet" should be re-termed "most likely winner" on the card.

Best Bet should mean the horse you can't wait to drive an hour to the track to risk half a day's wages.
Who the hell looks forward to betting a $2.30 horse?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Best Bet should mean the horse you can't wait to drive an hour to the track and throw down a couple of hundy on.
Who the hell looks forward to betting a $2.30 horse?

Incorrect

[VOL JACK]

whatever.

I just don't need a friggin write up in the DRF about how the track handicapper for NYRA tracks thinks a 2/5 shot is gonna win.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

whatever.

I just don't need a friggin write up in the DRF about how the track handicapper for NYRA tracks thinks a 2/5 shot is gonna win.

They routinely hammer Brad Free on Pace Advantage for the same stuff.

Turn on ESPN Classic right now - they are showing harness racing and a skinny version of Tom Durkin is calling it.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

whatever.

I just don't need a friggin write up in the DRF about how the track handicapper for NYRA tracks thinks a 2/5 shot is gonna win.

ignore it if it bothers you so darn much. thats not hard to do.

[Thunder Gulch]

Just my opinion, but Litfin is the best of the group from DRF. I've seen him make selections based on value countless times.

[Linny]

Litfin is very good. Fact is that Bold Warrior was the most likely winner of the day but the term " best bet" is the phrase used.

As for public handicappers and ROI, I understand why it's generally not published. First, selections are usually made 36 hours in advance with condiditons/scratches a mystery and the fact that no handicapper actually plays every race. Every public handicapper I've met has at some point HAD to make selections on races that they wouldn't bet for anything because they just can't get a good grip on them.

Picking alot of winners gets attention. Most people using the information from a public 'capper are not just blindly betting their top choice to win. They are confirming their choices or maybe mixing their "top choice" with their favorite public 'cappers' choices in EX/TRI/SUP or multi race play. If they choose to blend their picks with Litfin's and walk out with plenty more than they walked in with, to them Litfin is great even if he didn't have a "top choice" winner all day.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Best Bet should mean the horse you can't wait to drive an hour to the track to risk half a day's wages.
Who the hell looks forward to betting a $2.30 horse?

I don't disagree. "Best bet" is really a bad term for it. Everyone has their own way though. Kasept uses two different horses for "most likely winner" and "Best Value" each race ... yet, many times, the most likely winner in a race is also the best value. Further - sometimes there looks to be no identifiable value in the race.... and getting a price when real odds appear is all you can do with races like that.

At the bottom of every card - I have them put 'Most Likely Winner' for only the day - and 'Best Value' for only the day... with the name of horse and race number for each.

It's not the traditional accepted way of doing it - but who cares.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I don't disagree. "Best bet" is really a bad term for it. Everyone has their own way though. Kasept uses two different horses for "most likely winner" and "Best Value" each race ... yet, many times, the most likely winner in a race is also the best value. Further - sometimes there looks to be no identifiable value in the race.... and getting a price when real odds appear is all you can do with races like that.

At the bottom of every card - I have them put 'Most Likely Winner' for only the day - and 'Best Value' for only the day... with the name of horse and race number for each.

It's not the traditional accepted way of doing it - but who cares.

It's not that untraditional Doug... I see cappers having a bottom of the selections 'Most Likely' and 'Best Value'. I think Rich Eng does it for one. When I put the Best Value horse on top, I don't use the Most Likely tag at all. I'm saying the top choice is both the best value and most likely. Agree on the no value at times thought, and in those circumstances I'll use Most Likely, Next Best, Exotics Use, Super Add.

I get Jack's point about paying for analysis and getting obvious info too. But it's a capper-by-capper interpretation at DRF it seems because Mike Welsch approaches Best Bet as the horse he thinks has the best chance to win at the best price. (That's my approach in every race.) I first saw Dave Litfin's work in Metro Turf a million years ago, and always seemed to land on the same horses he did back then. As mentioned, the Best Bet thing is an individual approach. What I find of little value in this area is the use of MTO's as his top choices in turf races.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Kasept

What I find of little value in this area is the use of MTO's as his top choices in turf races.

I don't blame anyone at all for that. It's something I would certainly do if I was in his place.

The weather can sometimes be harder to forecast than how you expect the odds to go.

If it rains - you get the horse you want for dirt. If it doesn't - you scratch into the horse you want for turf. Where's the harm?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I don't blame anyone at all for that. It's something I would certainly do if I was in his place.

The weather can sometimes be harder to forecast than how you expect the odds to go.

If it rains - you get the horse you want for dirt. If it doesn't - you scratch into the horse you want for turf. Where's the harm?

I don't know.. Does anyone have to be made aware that one of 2-3 MTO's, and typically 2-1 or 5-2 on the line, is the choice if the race comes off?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I don't know.. Does anyone have to be made aware that one of 2-3 MTO's, and typically 2-1 or 5-2 on the line, is the choice if the race comes off?

If the MTO is the best betting option - why not?

I remember doing research - and over an 8 year stretch at Saratoga (all the charts I had to work with at the time) the post time favorite in races taken off of the turf had an ungodly high win percentage and a profitable ROI.

If I had to speculate on Litfin's motives for doing that - I'm sure it's because he wants the winner credited to him.

If it's a 9 race card with 4 turf races - and he's 0-for-5 in the dirt races - he's stairing an 0-for-9 duck in the face with 4 turf horses who are probably poorly meant for the dirt.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I don't blame anyone at all for that. It's something I would certainly do if I was in his place.

The weather can sometimes be harder to forecast than how you expect the odds to go.

If it rains - you get the horse you want for dirt. If it doesn't - you scratch into the horse you want for turf. Where's the harm?

The problem with what he does is he chooses an MTO on top and basically only handicaps two horses for the race. When you're doing your work as far in advance as he does you have to have some type of provision for races coming off the turf, I understand that but there might be a better method.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

The problem with what he does is he chooses an MTO on top and basically only handicaps two horses for the race. When you're doing your work as far in advance as he does you have to have some type of provision for races coming off the turf.

I know.

Don't they have those silly public handicapper contests at Saratoga to see who can select the most top pick winners?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Kasept

When I put the Best Value horse on top, I don't use the Most Likely tag at all. I'm saying the top choice is both the best value and most likely.

I know - I think you don't do the reverse of that nearly often enough though.

A lot of times the post time favorite or one of the shorter prices that you correctly identify as "most likely" is also "the best value" ... I don't notice you labeling many 6/5 shots as "best value" ... but relative to the other options in the race .. sometime they are the best value even at short odds.

And with extreme favorites - take the Sunland race that Plum Pretty won by 20+ lengths over a bunch of total goats - the best value should have been a non existant horse called "nobuddy"

I'm not trying to give you a hard time at all - as this is more about 'the wording of terms' than anything else.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I know - I think you don't do the reverse of that nearly often enough though.

A lot of times the post time favorite or one of the shorter prices that you correctly identify as "most likely" is also "the best value" ... I don't notice you labeling many 6/5 shots as "best value" ... but relative to the other options in the race .. sometime they are the best value even at short odds.

And with extreme favorites - take the Sunland race that Plum Pretty won by 20+ lengths over a bunch of total goats - the best value should have been a non existant horse called "nobuddy"

I'm not trying to give you a hard time at all - as this is more about 'the wording of terms' than anything else.

I get your point and it's very true about Most Likely = Best Value in various circumstances. If I had the time to write more elaborate analysis/comments the way I used to, I'd love to. I try to communicate as much as possible with the simple monikers, and believe those that have followed my opinion understand what I'm implying with the placement of the tabs. I generally make 'OTT' selections on a separate line and then move them into the body copy when revising the write-up post-SCR. But you're right about the wording and individual ideas of what they mean to people reading or writing them.