6/11 (BEL): Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I think a big difference between the two horses is the 12f distance. Alternation is having to add 3 furlongs in a single jump, no mean feat.

True, but it isn't like he would be going from 9f to 12f to face off against a bunch of 12f specialists. So....while the race would be an increase of 3f over his previous longest, every other horse in the field will be facing at least a 2f increase off his previous longest.
So again, that seems like a lousy reason to skip the race.

And I'm not trying to say you are making hard and fast rules. I'm just saying that all of the reasons you have presented - even if taken together - don't add up to a hill of beans in my opinion:
He's never ran past 9f before.
He didn't break his maiden until December.
He doesn't have a lot of graded stakes experience.
He didn't run in the Kentucky Derby.
Most Peter Pan winners that run in the Belmont Stakes don't win.

None of those strike me as particularly compelling reason to skip the race.