6/11 (BEL): Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Is Alternation any more unprepared for a race like the Belmont than Animal Kingdom was for the Derby? I understand the argument but in the current game horses are not taken along through their development incrementally, that's led to the deterioration of allowance races at many of the major circuits in the country.

I think a big difference between the two horses is the 12f distance. Alternation is having to add 3 furlongs in a single jump, no mean feat.

Of course, you could counter that Drosselmeyer, like Alternation, a son of Distorted Humor, tackled the same obstacle successfully last year. But then again, neither the Kentucky Derby winner nor the Preakness winner ran in the Belmont last year.

With regards to progressive development, Alternation, contrary to what I've been saying, has gone through his available conditions (first and second level allowance wins). However, in my opinion, he's stalled at the stakes level, with a modest Arkansas Derby try and a less than emphatic win in the Peter Pan. He seems to have "upside" but at a slow incline.

The Dwyer 1-2 finishers were 2nd and 1st in the Belmont last year and that was a Belmont that featured 0 horses who had run in all 3 legs of the TC. This year two of the main candidates will be making their 3rd start in 5 weeks. There's something to be said for having a fresh horse in that type of situation.

I see it the other way. I think it's an advantage to have started in the other classics. Certainly "fresh" horses can win once in a while, but if you look at the names (ie D'Tara, Sarava) you're more apt to write those years off.

Despite their flaws, Animal Kingdom and Shackleford both ran well in the Derby and Preakness, and each had a strong prep race prior to the Triple Crown. Though its a weak crop, I don't think the Belmont Stakes is the free-for-all that some are anticipating. Animal Kingdom and Shackleford might be separating themselves from the rest (Nehro a possible add-on) at this point.

Its just tough for me to swallow connections opting against a classic race where they probably would have been the 4th choice.

In the face of more dramatic hold-outs like Bernardini, Street Sense, Lookin At Lucky, Red Bullet, and Fusaichi Pegasus, I don't think this one is that big a deal.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I think a big difference between the two horses is the 12f distance. Alternation is having to add 3 furlongs in a single jump, no mean feat.

True, but it isn't like he would be going from 9f to 12f to face off against a bunch of 12f specialists. So....while the race would be an increase of 3f over his previous longest, every other horse in the field will be facing at least a 2f increase off his previous longest.
So again, that seems like a lousy reason to skip the race.

And I'm not trying to say you are making hard and fast rules. I'm just saying that all of the reasons you have presented - even if taken together - don't add up to a hill of beans in my opinion:
He's never ran past 9f before.
He didn't break his maiden until December.
He doesn't have a lot of graded stakes experience.
He didn't run in the Kentucky Derby.
Most Peter Pan winners that run in the Belmont Stakes don't win.

None of those strike me as particularly compelling reason to skip the race.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I think a big difference between the two horses is the 12f distance. Alternation is having to add 3 furlongs in a single jump, no mean feat.

Of course, you could counter that Drosselmeyer, like Alternation, a son of Distorted Humor, tackled the same obstacle successfully last year. But then again, neither the Kentucky Derby winner nor the Preakness winner ran in the Belmont last year.

With regards to progressive development, Alternation, contrary to what I've been saying, has gone through his available conditions (first and second level allowance wins). However, in my opinion, he's stalled at the stakes level, with a modest Arkansas Derby try and a less than emphatic win in the Peter Pan. He seems to have "upside" but at a slow incline.



I see it the other way. I think it's an advantage to have started in the other classics. Certainly "fresh" horses can win once in a while, but if you look at the names (ie D'Tara, Sarava) you're more apt to write those years off.

Despite their flaws, Animal Kingdom and Shackleford both ran well in the Derby and Preakness, and each had a strong prep race prior to the Triple Crown. Though its a weak crop, I don't think the Belmont Stakes is the free-for-all that some are anticipating. Animal Kingdom and Shackleford might be separating themselves from the rest (Nehro a possible add-on) at this point.



In the face of more dramatic hold-outs like Bernardini, Street Sense, Lookin At Lucky, Red Bullet, and Fusaichi Pegasus, I don't think this one is that big a deal.

Alternation is no more or less qualified for the Belmont at this point in time than Fly Down was a year ago. His trainer went on At the Races last December and talked about how he thought he was a Classic type of horse. Now, perhaps he feels at this point that he's a bit behind or lacks the seasoning.

I understand the argument you're making and the fact that many more high profile horses have been held out of the Belmont. I think the difference was that they were all horses who were going to be well-backed whereas Alternation figured to be a viable mid-range type of longshot, sort of an "interesting" horse in the race.

As far as the distance question, they're all going to tackle an obstacle the likes of which haven't been seen thus far by a 3YO. Should a horse who is by a multiple classic producing sire out of a dam who won 3 times at 11 furlongs be considered likely to have trouble with 12 furlongs? I'd think not.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I understand the argument you're making and the fact that many more high profile horses have been held out of the Belmont. I think the difference was that they were all horses who were going to be well-backed whereas Alternation figured to be a viable mid-range type of longshot, sort of an "interesting" horse in the race.

As far as this goes, you could also say he's a "borderline" horse, which to me means he fits in all those lesser races (Ohio Derby, Pegasus, Dwyer) surrounding the Belmont Stakes just as easily as the main event. Thus the indifference to his absence.

He's interesting, but basically only for those taking a shot in the dark, hoping he's progressed in an unquantifiable/unobserved fashion beyond his paper form. Had he earned a triple digit Beyer in the Peter Pan, or won the race by open lengths, I'd probably sing a different tune.