Derby field, where they should go, Preakness possibles

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by pweizer

This DRF story tells you all you need to know about the new faces:

http://www.drf.com/news/who-can-beat...rans-have-edge

The money quote: Among the newcomers, Watchmaker has Saratoga Red at the shortest odds (10-1).

Paul

Doesn't that have to be a misprint? I couldn't believe it when I saw it.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Doesn't that have to be a misprint? I couldn't believe it when I saw it.

Saratoga Red didnt run a lick on derby day but was a morning glory for the 2 weeks prior.

[pweizer]

Saratoga Red should be at least 100-1 in my opinion.

Paul

[dalakhani]

I am getting the feeling that you guys aren't on board with the Mr. Commons thing. Where is DrugS when you need him? You know he would be all over shirreffs in this spot.

Anything look promising here?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

I am getting the feeling that you guys aren't on board with the Mr. Commons thing. Where is DrugS when you need him? You know he would be all over shirreffs in this spot.

Anything look promising here?

I like him more than a little. Shirreffs was eager to get him into Derby, and that's hardly a situation you would expect him to be eager about without cause.

[dalakhani]

Thanks Steve! His last work seemed promising.

[NTamm1215]

I think Mr. Commons is Midnight Interlude 2.0. Basically everyone who bet on Midnight Interlude was banking on the Baffert factor. It's sort of the same thing everyone will do with Mr. Commons being trained by Shirreffs. There's very little about Mr. Commons' dirt races that would make me think he can win the Preakness.

The horses he faced in his allowance win were awful and have proven so in subsequent starts. The SA Derby did not exactly hold up as a positive race given the Derby efforts of Midnight Interlude and Comma to the Top. Indian Winter is another run-back from the SA Derby and he was a well-beaten 4th in the Derby Trial.

Artie Schiller has one stakes winner in his first crop, Bear's Chill who won the Queenston at Woodbine. His two other stakes placings this year were a 3rd place finish by Parting Words in the Appalachian and Subtle Irony in a stake at Beulah Park. At this point Artie is well behind flashy first crop sires like War Front.

Mr. Commons has a bright future on turf, as Rollo alluded to, and is still tough to like on dirt. He is almost certain to be an underlay, especially when you have an opinion like I do, which is that he should be a minimum of 30-1.