3-year-old Recap - Updated Derby Chances

[Indian Charlie]

I repeat.

She would get slaughtered in the Derby.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I repeat.

She would get slaughtered in the Derby.

Nevertheless, she's still probably Todd Pletcher's best shot to get back-to-back Derby victories.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Nevertheless, she's still probably Todd Pletcher's best shot to get back-to-back Derby victories.

Hardly.

Even if UM was done, I'd take Brethren or even that Joe Vann over her.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Hardly.

Even if UM was done, I'd take Brethren or even that Joe Vann over her.

Joe Vann isn't TC nominated and wouldn't get in on earnings. Brethren is worthless. But still, R Heat Lightning can't win the Derby.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Joe Vann isn't TC nominated and wouldn't get in on earnings. Brethren is worthless. But still, R Heat Lightning can't win the Derby.

Correct.

Though, now that I think about that dazzling logic you just used on me, I think that yeah, since neither Joe Vann or Brethren can win the Derby, then absolutely, R Heat Lightning is an immortal lock!!!

Everything is perfectly fugging clear now.

Your brain is made out of marshmallow.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Correct.

Though, now that I think about that dazzling logic you just used on me, I think that yeah, since neither Joe Vann or Brethren can win the Derby, then absolutely, R Heat Lightning is an immortal lock!!!

Everything is perfectly fugging clear now.

Your brain is made out of marshmallow.

Maybe you thought my second comment was sarcastic. . . it wasn't. My point was that saying you'd take Joe Vann or Brethren over R Heat Lightning is like saying you'd take Scavs over PG1985 in the NYC marathon. . . Either way, they're all hopeless.

I don't know why I bother responding to you when it comes to discussing something that sort of pertains to handicapping. You're good for two things: Predictably obsessing over Indian Charlie, and stroking DrugS'. . . ego.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

stroking DrugS'. . . ego.

I can assure you I have no ego.

[DaTruth]

Perhaps Pletcher has been thinking Triple Crown all along with Uncle Mo, and after assessing the competition and reading all the posts here about how the wheels would fall off after Uncle Mo won the Derby, has trained him accordingly. The Wood was intended to be the first race off the shelf following the Timely Writer public work.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Maybe you thought my second comment was sarcastic. . . it wasn't. My point was that saying you'd take Joe Vann or Brethren over R Heat Lightning is like saying you'd take Scavs over PG1985 in the NYC marathon. . . Either way, they're all hopeless.

I don't know why I bother responding to you when it comes to discussing something that sort of pertains to handicapping. You're good for two things: Predictably obsessing over Indian Charlie, and stroking DrugS'. . . ego.

Most of the things I say about Indian Charlie are tongue in cheek, but I'm starting to get the feeling that you have the mentality of a Johnny Pinwheel or TFF, minus the abrasiveness. Your ability to discern any sort of subtlety from what you see or read is non existent.

As for DrugS. Are you serious? I rip on that mofo probably more than anyone on here.

I do respect his ability with the horses, and he is one of the truly more interesting posters on here because of his ability to think outside the same, narrow, self imposed lines that people draw for themselves.

You are, however, way off base if you think I'm stroking his ego. He's a freaking ****** in real life.

I'll tell you what. From now on, if you like, I'll preface any posts pertaining to IC or DrugS with an explanation of whether I'm serious, half serious, mostly not serious, or completely joking. That way you can keep your brain on auto pilot.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Nevertheless, she's still probably Todd Pletcher's best shot to get back-to-back Derby victories.

You really think R Heat Lightening has a better chance of winning than Uncle Mo?

Duca was the only other horse in the Wood Memorial 2nd off the layoff - and he had the exact same running style as Uncle Mo ...




You can say - well, he only won a maiden last out. But the horse who was 2nd in that maiden race came back and closed against a moderate pace and actually ran a pretty nice figure when 2nd in the Ill Derby next time out.

A horse like Arthur's Tale was making his 7th start at 8f or more - in a span of less than the last 7 months. He already had 3 two-turn route races under him this year... and he's been working steadily between races. He had a monumental 'fitness' and 'foundation' edge on Uncle Mo.

Toby's Corner also had 3 routes under his belt this year - unlike Uncle Mo - he had a 6f workout under his belt.... and I've liked Toby's Corner enough to keep posting odds for him to win the Derby every week - even though he had almost zero Graded earnings this week and only had one race to try and get it.

I guess people want to work with the angle 'Uncle Mo's just not the same horse since his secret surgery after the Breeders Cup' .... perhaps - but it's hardly conclusive at this point.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You really think R Heat Lightening has a better chance of winning than Uncle Mo?

No. I was joking. The only race I've seen of R Heat Lightning's was the Davona Dale.

I guess people want to work with the angle 'Uncle Mo's just not the same horse since his secret surgery after the Breeders Cup' .... perhaps - but it's hardly conclusive at this point.

Not sure of any of that, but I certainly wouldn't be working the angle that Todd Pletcher was racing Uncle Mo into condition, either.

By the way, the most productive race on the Derby trail (albeit with the advantage of position on the calendar) was the Count Fleet. Should be a Grade 3 next year.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Not sure of any of that, but I certainly wouldn't be working the angle that Todd Pletcher was racing Uncle Mo into condition, either.

I agree with you on that ...

However, in hindsight, these 9f dirt routes at AQU have all been run like battle of attrition/survival of the fittest type races - and speed has really had no success relative to expectations for a dirt surface.

Velazquez was riding him like he was on a loaded keg of dynamite - and when he finally asked - he really looked like a very tired horse who was trying to give his best to no avail.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I agree with you on that ...

However, in hindsight, these 9f dirt routes at AQU have all been run like battle of attrition/survival of the fittest type races - and speed has really had no success relative to expectations for a dirt surface.

Velazquez was riding him like he was on a loaded keg of dynamite - and when he finally asked - he really looked like a very tired horse who was trying to give his best to no avail.

Uncle Mo's Wood effort basically confirmed he's somewhere between Favorite Trick and Fly So Free in terms of Derby potential. I wonder how he would have fared in the Florida Derby. If he was truly a short horse, I suppose he would have got buried even worse than in NY, but conversely, maybe as you say he was simply a sitting duck on the lead at Aqueduct, and theoretically could have established a stalking position at GP.

Maybe it was going to happen even if Uncle Mo had won the Wood Memorial as planned, but it's interesting that Pletcher is throwing everything he's got in his barn at the Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby. I wonder if he'll scrape up anything left for the Lexington.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Uncle Mo's Wood effort basically confirmed he's somewhere between Favorite Trick and Fly So Free in terms of Derby potential. I wonder how he would have fared in the Florida Derby. If he was truly a short horse, I suppose he would have got buried even worse than in NY, but conversely, maybe as you say he was simply a sitting duck on the lead at Aqueduct, and theoretically could have established a stalking position at GP.

Maybe it was going to happen even if Uncle Mo had won the Wood Memorial as planned, but it's interesting that Pletcher is throwing everything he's got in his barn at the Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby. I wonder if he'll scrape up anything left for the Lexington.

Even though I still have Uncle Mo's chances of winning at 18.5% - meaning I'd gladly take 10/1 on him now - but wouldn't touch 5/1 - I think it's clear Dialed In is infintiely the most likely horse to run 1-2-3 at this point.

UM's big Churchill win came off of a 94 figure Champagne win. His Wood performance was no worse than his Champagne race IMO - though, you'd sure expect a 3yo this time of year to improve over a 2nd career start at age 2.

To me - UM's not going to run 3rd in a race like the Derby ... he's either off the Superfecta ticket or he wins .. perhaps could run 2nd - though that's even less likely than him winning IMO.

Dialed In might be 14.5% to win .. but he might be 20% to run 3rd.