3-year-old Recap - Updated Derby Chances

[parsixfarms]

In light of yesterday's developments and Pletcher's comments after the Florida Derby, should odds be posted on R Heat Lightning (not that I would fancy her chances)?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

My only issue with the first list was his significantly underestimating the chances of new contenders emerging from the pack. Now his revised line seems to confirm my position.

--Dunbar

Well - the percentages change as the information changes.

Lets look at the recent devlopments ...

* The Louisianna Derby was won by Pants on Fire with Nehro 2nd - one would have been about 30/1 if uncoupled - the other was that type of price.

* The Sunland Derby was won by a horse who ran for a Maiden Claiming tag recently at the current SA meet.

* The Spiral was won by a true synthetic horse who still has never run on dirt.

* The horse who unquestionably ran the best race in the Fla Derby - was trading at 250/1 odds on Betfair.

* The Ill Derby was pretty Ill.

* The SA Derby saw two morning line favorites scratch due to physical setbacks. The winner, recently won a maiden race.

* The Wood Memorial saw a 1/9 favorite go down in defeat.

* Some highly regarded horses have fallen to injuries.

Lets say the Arkansas Derby is run like truly the definitive Derby prep race - and two horses step up and run great races. A strong performance by The Factor - and just his precense itself in the KY Derby badly hurts Sheckleford's Derby chances. Couple that with a physical setback for Midnight Interlude - and all of a sudden you could be back at 5% again - or possibly even under.

It's a lot easier and less tricky doing these fair value % lines for actual races than it is for this - that's for sure. You're dealing with lightly raced 3yo's - at a time when trainers don't want to run their good horses. Hell, they don't even want to put the good 3yo's through halfway brisk workouts. I think Uncle Mo has what - two easy workouts of 5f - and none beyond that this year.

Certainly though - your opinion proved right so far.

[Linny]

Good analysis of the AQU main track at 2 turns. Also, the horses were running into a strong headwind when they turned for home.
That said, Mo should have been so far superior to that field that he should have won on class. I think he's been handled with kid gloves and not made tough by hard fought races. Going into the Derby I'd prefer a colt with a few hard fought losses that a glowing record of trouncing over matched fields. Mo however didn't run what I would call a hard fought loss on Sat. He had nothing and offered nothing.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You're dealing with lightly raced 3yo's - at a time when trainers don't want to run their good horses. Hell, they don't even want to put the good 3yo's through halfway brisk workouts.

That's why I think it is infinitely easier to play the lower levels of this sport nowadays than to play most graded stakes races. At the $20k claimer level the horses actually run, so there's some info to go on.
Has Mo regressed significantly and permanently from his 2yo form or is he just not in shape because of his schedule? Who the hell knows? And that's the case with a lot of "G1-caliber" horses these days. When they only run five times a year, it makes it awfully hard to figure out what one sub-par performance really means.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

In light of yesterday's developments and Pletcher's comments after the Florida Derby, should odds be posted on R Heat Lightning (not that I would fancy her chances)?

She's not nominated, I don't believe. But I have thought the same thing. If I owned her, I would strongly consider it.

[Indian Charlie]

She would get slaughtered

[Travis Stone]

She would have something that no one else (save for a big Arkansas Derby figure) would have - a triple digit last out Beyer.

[cal828]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

She would have something that no one else (save for a big Arkansas Derby figure) would have - a triple digit last out Beyer.

I think Soldat has one.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by cal828

I think Soldat has one.

You're right, he does, but I was referring to "last out."

My point for what was once called (by some) "one of the best crops" ever, is now a pile of "huh?" I don't think anyone should be scared to enter.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

You're right, he does, but I was referring to "last out."

My point for what was once called (by some) "one of the best crops" ever, is now a pile of "huh?" I don't think anyone should be scared to enter.

Really? Really?!?!? Can you please post a link to someone calling this one of the best crops? I would love to see their other opinions.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

She would have something that no one else (save for a big Arkansas Derby figure) would have - a triple digit last out Beyer.

I guess Maclean's Music should go straight to the Derby.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I guess Maclean's Music should go straight to the Derby.

I'm not making the inductive argument that any and all 3-year-olds with a triple digit Beyer should go to the Derby. I'm saying because the crop is so level in terms of ability, with the the bar set very low, anyone within a sniff should give it a shot, or at least consider it.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I'm not making the inductive argument that any and all 3-year-olds with a triple digit Beyer should go to the Derby. I'm saying because the crop is so level in terms of ability, with the the bar set very low, anyone within a sniff should give it a shot, or at least consider it.

Whether or not anyone agrees with R Heat Lightning running in the Derby, fact of the matter is that it is very possible. Devil May Care, from the same stable, ran in the Derby last year as a late addition following the implosion of Eskendereya. Arguably, she had worse credentials than R Heat Lightning going in, and ended up running a decent race.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I'm not making the inductive argument that any and all 3-year-olds with a triple digit Beyer should go to the Derby.

I sure wouldn't be affraid to go to the Preakness next with Bind.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I guess Maclean's Music should go straight to the Derby.

Without question. Unfortunately he's got that zero graded earnings issue holding him back.