Classic Sheet Numbers

[alysheba4]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

As much as I'd like to see her back for another year- why leave when you just ran your best- i honestly could do without another year of soft 5 filly fields in California and all of the endless debate regarding her place in history.

.....she isnt as good as last year and will only be worse as a 7 year old.....time to end it.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by alysheba4

.....she isnt as good as last year and will only be worse as a 7 year old.....time to end it.

I would love to bet against her in the right spot. I hope they take the ambitious path and go east and against males in races like the Met Mile, Stephen Foster, Whitney, Woodward etc. If she raced in just one of those, I'd be very interested.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Considering the way the race track played during the Breeders Cup - the sheet numbers are going to come back out of whack.

Horses are going to be rewarded for racing wide - and they were better off being in the four path than on the rail.

[MISTERGEE]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Considering the way the race track played during the Breeders Cup - the sheet numbers are going to come back out of whack.

Horses are going to be rewarded for racing wide - and they were better off being in the four path than on the rail.

I think in almost every situation I would rather have my horse in the 4 path with no horse to my outside than on the rail possibly or probably pinned down, or in the 2 path even between horses. Guessing here but 9 times out of 10 I would rather have my horse swinging a bit wide out of trouble than saving ground and in tight quarters. I think the "figs" would be better without the ground lost enhancements? If you are already on the lead, fine, but coming out of the turn and into the stretch give me the horse on the outside. Unless of course you are in the midst of a tremendous bias like your 1 horse at PID

[golfer]

TG figs are up for both days:



http://www.thorograph.com/ROTW/20101...010bcf_10s.pdf

[philcski]

Blame -2.25
Zenyatta -1.75
Goldikova -2
Uncle Mo 0
Big Drama -1.5
Hamazing Destiny -2.5 (!)
Unrivaled Belle -1.75
Awesome Feather 4
Dubai Majesty -2.5

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Quality Road's 2010 campaign on their numbers:

Negative 7.5

(almost 4 month layoff)

Negative 5.75

(10 week layoff)

Negative 3.25

(Month layoff)

Negative 2

(Month layoff)

12.5 X (an X on sheets stands for racing on a dead rail)


I assume this is called the "Titanic pattern" - and Quality Road would run a 25 next time out. A number which gets you beat at Portland Meadows.

[Round Pen]

Originally Posted by philcski

Blame -2.25
Zenyatta -1.75
Goldikova -2Uncle Mo 0
Big Drama -1.5
Hamazing Destiny -2.5 (!)
Unrivaled Belle -1.75
Awesome Feather 4
Dubai Majesty -2.5

Maybe I am wrong here but that -2 seems a little fast considering its a new top for her by 3 points. But what the heck shes a great mare.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Round Pen

Maybe I am wrong here but that -2 seems a little fast considering its a new top for her by 3 points. But what the heck shes a great mare.

Pretty funny... Read a post on the TG board not three minutes ago asking if the Mile doesn't seem inordinately fast.

(On a seperate note regarding the figs, I sent your man a text last night with Delightful Mary's number (4.5). She ran a terrific race at 11-1, and as much as I was convinced of Awesome Feather's quality, was very pleased to have backed the Casse charge by putting her on top in my Selections. Big future ahead for her..)

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Round Pen

Maybe I am wrong here but that -2 seems a little fast considering its a new top for her by 3 points. But what the heck shes a great mare.

Interesting observation, I didn't catch that... no question it was a huge race, but a new top by 3 points is monster. However, I just went through the rest of the numbers for the two mile turf races and it fits really well- and if they are correct about her being 5W4W (I'm assuming they are) then she could have been even faster. Pluck got a 7.75 while 2W2W, so a 9.75 raw, and Goldi was 7.25 points faster on time- so 2.5 raw and -4.5 final (but that would give everybody else in the Mile a top as well, instead they all were close to their normal range which makes sense since it was a very formful race.)

Sometimes I think the European TG's are a little worse than they should be- I think that's because there is no adjustment for ground loss and time means little.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Round Pen

Maybe I am wrong here but that -2 seems a little fast considering its a new top for her by 3 points. But what the heck shes a great mare.

I thought it was her best so I'm not surprised. I swear I don't know if I've ever seen an explosion like she let loose with at the top of the lane.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

I think in almost every situation I would rather have my horse in the 4 path with no horse to my outside than on the rail possibly or probably pinned down, or in the 2 path even between horses. Guessing here but 9 times out of 10 I would rather have my horse swinging a bit wide out of trouble than saving ground and in tight quarters. I think the "figs" would be better without the ground lost enhancements? If you are already on the lead, fine, but coming out of the turn and into the stretch give me the horse on the outside. Unless of course you are in the midst of a tremendous bias like your 1 horse at PID

I think most would agree, but the intent of Thorograph numbers is to measure the performance, so horses that ran more ground in the same time arguably performed better. That doesn't mean they'll get a better trip next time, which has to be factored when considering late runners and outside draws for future events.

[Slewbopper]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

I would love to bet against her in the right spot. I hope they take the ambitious path and go east and against males in races like the Met Mile, Stephen Foster, Whitney, Woodward etc. If she raced in just one of those, I'd be very interested.

Three 9 fur races and one at a mile. From her speed figs, 1 1/4 seems to be her best distance. The only races at that distance before the JCGC in the east are the Del Cap and the PE, both for F & Ms. The 1 3/16 Pim Special would have been a nice eastern race for her in the spring, but that is a moot point.