Zenyatta

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by philcski

But the early fractions are the difference in the quality of the horses running.

Looking at the pace comparison between the races, they probably should have been :45 2/5 versus :46 2/5. If they go :45 2/5 in the DM, they still run 1:35 1/5 (and there's a different winner of the race). If they go :46 2/5, it's highly unlikely they go 1:35 1/5, but then again these are G1 males versus G3 females. They are supposed to be running better early fractions.

I partially agree but not totally. I would expect the grade I, male milers to run at least a full second faster than Distictive Dixie even if there wasn't much pace in the race. Even if they ran equal early fractions, I would expect the males to run a mimimun of a second faster. I agree that better quality horses usually run faster fractions but not always. I see plenty of grade I races where the fractions are not fast. On the other hand, fast fractions don't always translate to faster times. They usually do, but not always. If the best horses in the race are speed horses, if the fractions are too fast it may slow down the final time. But if the best horses in the race are come-from-behinders then a fast pace will almost always improve the final time.

Anyway, I can't tell you exactly how much the track slowed down over the course of the day. Between the two races we're talking about, it may have been only a tick or two but I think that track does slow down later in the day. Do you disagree that the track slowed down over the course of the day on opening day (Oct 31)?