Poly speed disaster at keeneland

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by oracle80

I'll pull up the last 5 Bc's and see ok? I havent checked yet and will only look at the dirt races from the last 5 years.

Of course Keeneland hasn't had Ghostzapper yet!

Gonna need 6 years to get a 30 race sample comparable to the 29 run so far.

2005- Folklore wired em 1/5

2004- Ghostzapper wired em 1/5(2/10)

2003- Adoration wired em 1/5 (3/15)

2002- Vindication wired em
Azeri wired em 2/5 (5/20)

2001- no wire jobs 0/5 (5/25)

2000- Tiznow wired em 1/5 (6/30)

Ok so thats 20%, with big fields at 5 different race tracks, some who are regarded as closer favoring tracks moreso than others, some with no noted bias, and some with a noted speed edge. Ho hum.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Gonna need 6 years to get a 30 race sample comparable to the 29 run so far.

2005- Folklore wired em 1/5

2004- Ghostzapper wired em 1/5(2/10)

2003- Adoration wired em 1/5 (3/15)

2002- Vindication wired em
Azeri wired em 2/5 (5/20)

2001- no wire jobs 0/5 (5/25)

2000- Tiznow wired em 1/5 (6/30)

Ok so thats 20%, with big fields at 5 different race tracks, some who are regarded as closer favoring tracks moreso than others, some with no noted bias, and some with a noted speed edge. Ho hum.

I'd think 15-20% should be about right. I think you need a few more than 29 races to draw a conclusion but if it gets to 100 races and you still have less than 8 wire to wire winners then they might want to tweak it a little. Didn't Turfway have similar problems at first and then fixed it?

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I'd think 15-20% should be about right. I think you need a few more than 29 races to draw a conclusion but if it gets to 100 races and you still have less than 8 wire to wire winners then they might want to tweak it a little. Didn't Turfway have similar problems at first and then fixed it?

So by the last few days of a 3 week meet things oughta be just fine!! LOL!!!!

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by oracle80

So by the last few days of a 3 week meet things oughta be just fine!! LOL!!!!

I don't know how much you want to tweak it during a 3 week meet. If it keeps up all meet though it is something they would definitely want to address before the April meet. Who would have ever thought Keeneland would be where frontrunners go to die?

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I don't know how much you want to tweak it during a 3 week meet. If it keeps up all meet though it is something they would definitely want to address before the April meet. Who would have ever thought Keeneland would be where frontrunners go to die?

Damn, the marketing material said it required no-minimal maintenance. Foiled again!!!

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Damn, the marketing material said it required no-minimal maintenance. Foiled again!!!

This must be where the minimal comes in.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I don't know how much you want to tweak it during a 3 week meet. If it keeps up all meet though it is something they would definitely want to address before the April meet. Who would have ever thought Keeneland would be where frontrunners go to die?

I would have. When Turfway first went to Poly, u might remember that I was on the other forum talking about how the horses were staggering home in every race. The opening fractions were close to normal but closing ones have been ridiculously slow, an indicator to me that the track is a lot more tiring than regular dirt and puts speed at a distinct disadvantage. As Oracle has pointed out, this is contradictory to what breeders are looking for these days. The game is killing itself. Breed horses for speed and then build tracks that kill speed horses. Brilliant.

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I would have. When Turfway first went to Poly, u might remember that I was on the other forum talking about how the horses were staggering home in every race. The opening fractions were close to normal but closing ones have been ridiculously slow, an indicator to me that the track is a lot more tiring than regular dirt and puts speed at a distinct disadvantage. As Oracle has pointed out, this is contradictory to what breeders are looking for these days. The game is killing itself. Breed horses for speed and then build tracks that kill speed horses. Brilliant.

Its not exactly a good marketing plan is it?
Wait until some owners have some of the soundest high 6 figure yearling purchases you ever saw who haven't earned a quarter.
Lets see how fast they head east to the dirt.
East Coast tracks will react further than they already have, which has been good, by making sure they have good cushions and tracks with a good surface that is harrowed deeper. Sound is good, sound is very very good. Sound and everyone with talent and speed hitting a brick wall isn't good, not at all good.