Chuchill Post Positions

[Thunder Gulch]

The data above indicates only the extreme outside are severely disadvantaged. Post 10 at 7.7% so it should be less than 10% if the field size is 10+.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

The data above indicates only the extreme outside are severely disadvantaged. Post 10 at 7.7% so it should be less than 10% if the field size is 10+.

Avg field size for post 10 would be 10.38 - that means that post #10 should win at 9.63% - considering the thousand race plus sample size - it's clear that post 10 is at a disadvantage.

Avg field size for post 9 would be 10.01 - thus post 9 should win 9.99%

Avg field size for post 8 would be 9.67 - thus post 8 should win at 10.34%

Avg field size for post 11 would be 11.72 - thus post 11 should win at 8.53%

Avg field size for post 12 would be 12.13 - thus post 12 should win at 8.24%

Basically ....

Post 8: should win 10.34% - wins 9.0% (disadvantaged by 1.34%)

Post 9: should win 9.99% - wins 8.6% (disadvantaged by 1.39%)

Post 10: should win 9.63% - wins 7.7% (disadvantaged by 1.93%)

Post 11: should win 8.53% - wins 5.9% (disadvantaged by 2.63%)

Post 12: should win 8.24% - wins 1.3% (disadvantaged by 6.96%)

Post 13: should win 7.32% - wins 0%

Post 14: should win 7.14% - wins 0%

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Avg field size for post 10 would be ...

What does "would be" mean? Was it the average field size, or are you guessing?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

What does "would be" mean? Was it the average field size, or are you guessing?

No - it's a calculation. No guessing

1,082 horses started from post 10 and the total number of horses who ran in those 1,082 races was 11,230.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

No - it's a calculation. No guessing

1,082 horses started from post 10 and the total number of horses who ran in those 1,082 races was 11,230.

I figured, but would be wasn't clear to my slow mind.

[tjfla]

Drugs is this for the Turf or both the Turf and the Turf Mile?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by tjfla

Drugs is this for the Turf or both the Turf and the Turf Mile?

It would apply to all the turf races. Not distance specific.

If the right horse draws out there they'll still bet it.

The year Lure was 9th beaten 9.5 lengths at 4/5 in the Mile from post 14. Paradise Creek was 3rd beaten 3 lengths to Tiekkenan from post 13 at 4/5 odds in the Turf.

They made Gorella 3/1 from post 13 in the Mile the last time the BC was at CD and she got thumped.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

It would apply to all the turf races. Not distance specific.

If the right horse draws out there they'll still bet it.

The year Lure was 9th beaten 9.5 lengths at 4/5 in the Mile from post 14. Paradise Creek was 3rd beaten 3 lengths to Tiekkenan from post 13 at 4/5 odds in the Turf.

They made Gorella 3/1 from post 13 in the Mile the last time the BC was at CD and she got thumped.

I find it very hard to believe post is much of a factor at 1 1/2 miles. The Mile, absolutely, but not the Turf. The sample size has to be extremely small. Lumping distances isn't a good idea.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I find it very hard to believe post is much of a factor at 1 1/2 miles. The Mile, absolutely, but not the Turf. The sample size has to be extremely small. Lumping distances isn't a good idea.

Well - 12 furlongs is 3 turns on the CD turf course... but yeah - very small sample size for that distance ... compared to the massive when lumped together.

12fs CD Turf

Post
1 5-for-23 (22%)
2 3-for-23 (13%)
3 3-for-23 (13%)
4 3-for-23 (13%)
5 1-for-23 (04%)
6 4-for-22 (18%)
7 2-for-19 (11%)
8 0-for-16 (00%)
9 1-for-13 (08%)
10 1-for-12 (08%)
11 0-for-6 (00%)
12 0-for-3 (00%)
13 0-for-2 (00%)