In Figures We Trust

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I haven't looked at the PPs of the horses behind them in those races. But, I suspect, many turfers ran significantly faster than they ever have on dirt.

It's not about someone with an opinion buying into these numbers, as, cleary, neither had a shot (to win) going 7F -- both the distance and the setup were against them. But, these stick out like sore thumbs and, I'd think, that there'd be some work put in towards making sense of them. If it's the case (likely) that they just got the best of it on the front end, given the distance, then the figure should be tweaked. Not like this would be unprecedented.

Of the horses that were entered in the main body of D'bigcat's race (race fig/top dirt fig):

Dixie Night Out (73/76)
Cayo Hueso (69/73)
Morning Run (68/75)
Regal Soul (62/83)
Little Alex (58/65)
Count Catamount (45/78)

So, nobody behind D'bigcat even ran back to their previous dirt top, much less improved on it.

Fastus Cactus' race:

Subtitles (76/98)
Patron Saint (71/88)
Estimator (73/89)
Sumfun (55/93)
A. P. Eddie (51/90)

Now obviously, these weren't all 'turf' horses. But other than My Golden Opinion running second behind FC, there's no also-ran fig that jumps out at you as phony high.

[the_fat_man]

So, everything in these races ran significantly SLOWER than their best dirt effort? And the winners were the only ones to improve (noticeably).

It's a juice thing then.

[hockey2315]

Not reading closely through what was already written so shoot me if something has been covered or if this isn't relevant, but. . .

This is probably the worst possible case to use for attacking figures considering the players involved.

D'bigcat, who was a pretty obvious claim considering the amount of speed he showed at the sales and at two, followed up his 90 two back with an 89 at a distance that isn't his best yesterday. And wasn't he an MTO on the 16th? Broken Home, the only other horse to run back out of the race on the 16th, came back to run 5 points higher after being claimed FROM Dub and Chip Dutrow.

Nothing the Cactus did is worth anything considering his behavior throughout the race, but the big fig he earned doesn't seem that out of whack considering the surface and distance changes - especially since he showed an inability to rate on the turf.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

ing claimed FROM Dub and Chip Dutrow.

Nothing the Cactus did is worth anything considering his behavior throughout the race, but the big fig he earned doesn't seem that out of whack considering the surface and distance changes - especially since he showed an inability to rate on the turf.

I don't have the Beyer numbers for these horses (or the others in their races) so, I'm just going with what's posted here. But some of your reasoning doesn't make sense to me: a horse that's unable to rate routing on turf is able to run big numbers of dirt? What was FC's Beyer number for that race? It wasn't as high as the BRIS # was it?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I don't have the Beyer numbers for these horses (or the others in their races) so, I'm just going with what's posted here. But some of your reasoning doesn't make sense to me: a horse that's unable to rate routing on turf is able to run big numbers of dirt? What was FC's Beyer number for that race? It wasn't as high as the BRIS # was it?

101.

[hockey2315]

His turf performances gave the impression of a horse better suited to dirt sprinting, so for him to move up when turned back isn't really much of a surprise is it?

[the_fat_man]

With the exception of his 3 turf routes, he's always been a sprinter. He has one other dirt race, the GP sprint. Per BRIS, he improved that effort by 27 points in the race in question. I realize, Canani didn't have him then and Dutrow got him after that. That's why, I wondered whether this was a JUICE or distance thing.

[hockey2315]

Can't really go off one figure, but it being a juice thing isn't out of the realm of possibility.

And I know figs aren't your thing, but it's pointless to ever quote a Bris fig. They're not real figures.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Can't really go off one figure, but it being a juice thing isn't out of the realm of possibility.

And I know figs aren't your thing, but it's pointless to ever quote a Bris fig. They're not real figures.

I'm only using the BRIS #'s as a point of comparison between prior figures and those for the races in question. Obviously, I have no idea what the Beyers were for these horses. Which puts me at a bit of a disadvantage here.
Of course, Serling spoke about these figures in some detail yesterday. He certainly didn't trust them, as he didn't pick either horse in his top 4. I'm assuming he knows more about this than I do, and it got me to wondering WHY these figures were as high as they were. And, whether they were justified.

One the one hand, BRIS, which are automated, are not real figures for you; on the other, you're outspoken about the ad hoc tweaking of numbers by the Beyer crew. Which one is it?