Best Maiden Race of the meet so far...

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Cohen and the rail? You think JR would be listed if Pletcher told him he was the goods.. Plus the rail is almost a auto toss with Mdn 2 year olds IMO

No, absolutely not. JV already rode the other horse and he ran 2nd. I would bet money that he was not offered the mount on the first-timer in this race. That would be the kind of thing that would not go over well for a trainer when he is trying to keep two separate owners happy. It would be one thing if both horses had run and JV had ridden both of them. Then he would have to choose between the two. But in a case where he's already ridden the one horse and the horse ran well, he's not going to be offered the mount on the other horse.

By the way, last week there was a MSW at Saratoga and Pletcher had two first-timers. JV was on one and Cohen was on the other. Simon Bray was handicapping the race on TVG and commented that he was only using the JV horse because Pletcher would definitely put JV on the better of the two horses. I was thinking that I would not necessarily agree considering that the Pletcher/Cohen combo has a much higher win percenatge than the Pletcher/JV combo. The Pletcher/Cohen combo has won at a 37% clip from 113 starts. The Pletcher/JV combo has won at a 24% clip from 523 starts.

Anyway, Simon Bray was totally wrong. The horse with Cohen won the race easily. And I think that horse broke from the rail too.

[Betsy]

I LOVE Stay Thirsty, but he's got an awful post.....He ran very well in his debut and he should improve.. Also, he's trained by Pletcher...

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Betsy

I LOVE Stay Thirsty, but he's got an awful post.....He ran very well in his debut and he should improve..

What's so awful about that post?

NT

[randallscott35]

You really can't judge the best maiden race until they are all run. We'll see.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

What's so awful about that post?

NT

I just assumed the far outside post is the worst; I wouldn't mind being wrong. It's better than being on the inside.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Betsy

I just assumed the far outside post is the worst; I wouldn't mind being wrong. It's better than being on the inside.

No in sprints really if the run into the turn is long enough and certainly not with babies who don't like being close to the rail.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

No in sprints really if the run into the turn is long enough and certainly not with babies who don't like being close to the rail.

Ok, thanks! If I had my druthers, I'd take the outside post rather than the rail as well.......Hopefully it will be a fast track - I'm really looking forward to seeing this colt run again.

[Betsy]

All these well-bred firsters are really working quite well, as if at least one or two of them will be good ones.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

No, absolutely not. JV already rode the other horse and he ran 2nd. I would bet money that he was not offered the mount on the first-timer in this race. That would be the kind of thing that would not go over well for a trainer when he is trying to keep two separate owners happy. It would be one thing if both horses had run and JV had ridden both of them. Then he would have to choose between the two. But in a case where he's already ridden the one horse and the horse ran well, he's not going to be offered the mount on the other horse.

By the way, last week there was a MSW at Saratoga and Pletcher had two first-timers. JV was on one and Cohen was on the other. Simon Bray was handicapping the race on TVG and commented that he was only using the JV horse because Pletcher would definitely put JV on the better of the two horses. I was thinking that I would not necessarily agree considering that the Pletcher/Cohen combo has a much higher win percenatge than the Pletcher/JV combo. The Pletcher/Cohen combo has won at a 37% clip from 113 starts. The Pletcher/JV combo has won at a 24% clip from 523 starts.


Anyway, Simon Bray was totally wrong. The horse with Cohen won the race easily. And I think that horse broke from the rail too.

Accidents happen but the rail and Cohen are hardily a good sign..More Impotantly it is going to take a at least a 85 BSF to win this race and hoping that a colt riden by the B rider breaking from the rail is going to overcome a second time starter drawn well is really hard to swallow. The Nicks is second most likely he always has them ready to fire and Officer is a solid win early sprint stallion.. The Jess/ASS can be good but why would you try and beat the 11? He really looks like a easy winner

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Accidents happen but the rail and Cohen are hardily a good sign..More Impotantly it is going to take a at least a 85 BSF to win this race and hoping that a colt riden by the B rider breaking from the rail is going to overcome a second time starter drawn well is really hard to swallow. The Nicks is second most likely he always has them ready to fire and Officer is a solid win early sprint stallion.. The Jess/ASS can be good but why would you try and beat the 11? He really looks like a easy winner

I watched both of those horses (the Asmussen and the 11) work at the sale and I liked the Asmussen better. If I can get a decent price on the Asmussen, I would certainly consider betting the horse.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Accidents happen but the rail and Cohen are hardily a good sign..More Impotantly it is going to take a at least a 85 BSF to win this race and hoping that a colt riden by the B rider breaking from the rail is going to overcome a second time starter drawn well is really hard to swallow. The Nicks is second most likely he always has them ready to fire and Officer is a solid win early sprint stallion.. The Jess/ASS can be good but why would you try and beat the 11? He really looks like a easy winner

I doubt it was an accident that the horse with Cohen won. Pletcher has a lot of confidence in Cohen, as he should. If a jock was winning for you at a 37% clip from 113 mounts with a ROI of $2.51, I don't think you'd be afraid to put him on a good horse.

If a trainer has 2 first-time starters in a maiden race and one is being ridden by his go-to jock and the other is being a ridden by a no-name jock that is 0 for 20 for that trainer, I would usually assume that the horse with the go-to jock is the live one. But if both jockeys have a really high win percentage for the trainer, I would not put nearly as much weight on which horse the #1 guy is on.

And if one of the horses has already run once and has run pretty well (as is the case for the upcoming race on Saturday), then I wouldn't put any weight on which jockey is riding which horse, because the same jock will almost for sure be riding that horse again even if the other horse is better.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I doubt it was an accident that the horse with Cohen won. Pletcher has a lot of confidence in Cohen, as he should. If a jock was winning for you at a 37% clip from 113 mounts with a ROI of $2.51, I don't think you'd be afraid to put him on a good horse.

If a trainer has 2 first-time starters in a maiden race and one is being ridden by his go-to jock and the other is being a ridden by a no-name jock that is 0 for 20 for that trainer, I would usually assume that the horse with the go-to jock is the live one. But if both jockeys have a really high win percentage for the trainer, I would not put nearly as much weight on which horse the #1 guy is on.

And if one of the horses has already run once and has run pretty well (as is the case for the upcoming race on Saturday), then I wouldn't put any weight on which jockey is riding which horse, because the same jock will almost for sure be riding that horse again even if the other horse is better.

Can you find a jockey that has ridden for Pletcher that doesn't have a high percentage when riding for him? Those Cohen-Pletcher stats were not accumulated during a time when the racing is nearly as competitive as it is at Saratoga.

NT

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Can you find a jockey that has ridden for Pletcher that doesn't have a high percentage when riding for him? Those Cohen-Pletcher stats were not accumulated during a time when the racing is nearly as competitive as it is at Saratoga.

NT

The answer is clearly "yes". Do the math. Pletcher's winning percentage this year is 27%. What was it last year? I believe it was about 24%. For the two years combined, his win percentage is about 25% or so. He is winning with Cohen at a 37% clip for that time period. If he's winning with Cohen at a 37% clip (from 113 mounts) for that time period but his overall win percentage is 25%, that means that there have to be other jockeys out there that are only winning at about a 13% clip for Pletcher. I don't know specifically which jocks. I'm sure you could look it up.

Another stat that is significant is the ROI. When JV and Pletcher pair up, the ROI is only $1.67. When Pletcher and Cohen team up the ROI is $2.51. That means that if you bet $1,000 to win on every Pletcher/Cohen horse, you would be up about $28,000. If you bet $1,000 on every Pletcher/JV horse, you'd be down over $80,000.

I was able to find one that is significantly lower. The Pletcher/Dominguez combo wins at a 20% clip.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

The answer is clearly "yes". Do the math. Pletcher's winning percentage this year is 27%. What was it last year? I believe it was about 24%. For the two years combined, his win percentage is about 25% or so. He is winning with Cohen at a 37% clip for that time period. If he's winning with Cohen at a 37% clip (from 113 mounts) for that time period but his overall win percentage is 25%, that means that there have to be other jockeys out there that are only winning at about a 13% clip for Pletcher. I don't know specifically which jocks. I'm sure you could look it up.

Another stat that is significant is the ROI. When JV and Pletcher pair up, the ROI is only $1.67. When Pletcher and Cohen team up the ROI is $2.51. That means that if you bet $1,000 to win on every Pletcher/Cohen horse, you would be up about $28,000. If you bet $1,000 on every Pletcher/JV horse, you'd be down over $80,000.

I was able to find one that is significantly lower. The Pletcher/Dominguez combo wins at a 20% clip.

Thank you for explaining to me what you'd be up if you were betting the horses and the amounts. Can you explain to me what front bandages are for and why some horses make a poop while they walk in the paddock?

I don't know why you're on such a crusade with this. So Dominguez winning at "only" a 20% clip means that Cohen is somehow a more potent combination with Pletcher? Come on, he's riding 2nd tier horses, that's not a mystery. His 8 winners with Pletcher since Aqueduct ended all happened during Triple Crown weekends, when JV was at Monmouth, or when JV had another mount in the same race.

They're 1-7 together at Saratoga with the 2YO firster being the only winner. Is Cohen a negative? Of course not but if you're using him as the rationale to play a firster bred to go long from the rail in a race that's going to have a sub even money favorite then you probably lose often.

NT

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I don't know why you're on such a crusade with this. So Dominguez winning at "only" a 20% clip means that Cohen is somehow a more potent combination with Pletcher? Come on, he's riding 2nd tier horses, that's not a mystery. His 8 winners with Pletcher since Aqueduct ended all happened during Triple Crown weekends, when JV was at Monmouth, or when JV had another mount in the same race.

They're 1-7 together at Saratoga with the 2YO firster being the only winner. Is Cohen a negative? Of course not but if you're using him as the rationale to play a firster bred to go long from the rail in a race that's going to have a sub even money favorite then you probably lose often.

NT

I'm not sure you understand my point. What started the conversation was that Simon Bray and FreddyMo both said that they would throw a Pletcher horse out if Cohen was on the horse and JV was on another horse. I'm saying that would be a mistake. That's all I'm saying.

I think it would be a mistake with any trainer to throw out a horse based on the jockey, if the jockey has a record with that trainer that is better than the trainer's average. When a jock rides a lot for a trainer and has done well for a trainer, that jock is obviously working plenty of horses for that trainer in the morning. If Cohen, for example, works a young horse for Pletcher and Cohen really likes the horse and wants to ride the horse, it would be quite possible that Pletcher may let him ride the horse, even though he is not Plethcer's #1 rider. I think it would be crazy to throw out a Pletcher horse with the rationale that "Pletcher must not like the horse or he wouldn't be riding Cohen."

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Thank you for explaining to me what you'd be up if you were betting the horses and the amounts. Can you explain to me what front bandages are for and why some horses make a poop while they walk in the paddock?

I don't know why you're on such a crusade with this. So Dominguez winning at "only" a 20% clip means that Cohen is somehow a more potent combination with Pletcher? Come on, he's riding 2nd tier horses, that's not a mystery. His 8 winners with Pletcher since Aqueduct ended all happened during Triple Crown weekends, when JV was at Monmouth, or when JV had another mount in the same race.

They're 1-7 together at Saratoga with the 2YO firster being the only winner. Is Cohen a negative? Of course not but if you're using him as the rationale to play a firster bred to go long from the rail in a race that's going to have a sub even money favorite then you probably lose often.

NT

for one...who even bets these races seriously? those baby races are like the worst betting events known to man. they are for mostly watching. secondly, johnny v. is many times given the slower horse. they are not stupid, they laugh when the 8 to 1 comes in, while johnny v loses on the 6-5. i've seen it many times where hes on the overbet horse and the "other" jock gets the rocket at a price. he did this with decarlo too. other than watching the money (thats wrong alot too). those races are a crap shoot. if you are saying to bet these sub even money faves...you are nuts....i'll take my chances somewhere else.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Another stat that is significant is the ROI. When JV and Pletcher pair up, the ROI is only $1.67. When Pletcher and Cohen team up the ROI is $2.51. That means that if you bet $1,000 to win on every Pletcher/Cohen horse, you would be up about $28,000. If you bet $1,000 on every Pletcher/JV horse, you'd be down over $80,000.

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