Monmouth handle & attendance

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

As for the 20% thing, it was obviously an exaggeration to make a point. I dont' even think DrugS said that is his ROI. But even if it wasn't, do you really think someone can have a +20% over a whole meet on 4 to 1 shots? The bigger the odds, the bigger the effect of a single wager.

Of course I never said my profit was 20% - Jesus Christ.


I was going over some PID stats with a local bettor ... I told him that post position #1 has won 66 out of the 320 races here so far - for a 20.6% win percentage and a mind-boggling $2.85 ROI. That's a 42.5% profit per dollar bet.

Then I told him about how insanely great the stats are for speed.

He goes to me "I can't understand how you're doing so bad with your paper picks? I know your showing a little profit, but if you just picked the speed horse - or even the horse starting from the rail in every race - you'd be doing amazing!"

What they don't realize is that those stats are skewed - not just by the constant speed and rail bias - but also by some GIANT priced winners.

Here's an example of a horse I didn't pick 1st - but picked 2nd behind the favorite.



Summer Outing was drawn wide in post 8 back to back races - and raced wide against the bias in the prior start. By stretching out to two-turns and drawing the great rail post in a race without a lot of speed ... it was an attractive longshot. Look at the weak prior form though! That weak form didn't matter - the horse won by 18 lengths at 12/1 thanks to the bias.

[MISTERGEE]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Of course I never said my profit was 20% - Jesus Christ.


I was going over some PID stats with a local bettor ... I told him that post position #1 has won 66 out of the 320 races here so far - for a 20.6% win percentage and a mind-boggling $2.85 ROI. That's a 42.5% profit per dollar bet.

Then I told him about how insanely great the stats are for speed.

He goes to me "I can't understand how you're doing so bad with your paper picks? I know your showing a little profit, but if you just picked the speed horse - or even the horse starting from the rail in every race - you'd be doing amazing!"

What they don't realize is that those stats are skewed - not just by the constant speed and rail bias - but also by some GIANT priced winners.

Here's an example of a horse I didn't pick 1st - but picked 2nd behind the favorite.



Summer Outing was drawn wide in post 8 back to back races - and raced wide against the bias in the prior start. By stretching out to two-turns and drawing the great rail post in a race without a lot of speed ... it was an attractive longshot. Look at the weak prior form though! That weak form didn't matter - the horse won by 18 lengths at 12/1 thanks to the bias.

may I ask are your picks for PID, in the paper but not on the website?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

may I ask are your picks for PID, in the paper but not on the website?

They put them on the website sometimes - and other times they don't. They are always in the paper.

You have to remember - there are like 40 people betting the horses ontrack the average night ... and they have options between my stuff in the paper - or the two TV commentators .. they even had a free tipsheet for a couple years made by one of the on-air guys. He'd pick entirely different horses in the tipsheet than he'd pick on-air .. but he'd say his on-air picks were through handicapping and his tip sheet picks were through his special points system formula .. it was just odd how they NEVER landed on the same top pick.

It's a situation where I could spend 10 seconds a race and handicap a whole card in less than 2 minutes and no one would care. I'd still get paid and I still couldn't do any worse than the track people .. I just have way too much pride and way too much ego to do that.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rare Bog

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0waN...eature=related

Nice clip. Is Indian Charlie supposed to be the guy next to me?

[Indian Charlie]

ouch.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Rare Bog

Thanks but no. That's this clip:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xG7TmEPpvLM

Not for nothing but the fact that you even stumbled across that link speaks volumes.

The internet is hard for some and whatnot.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Rare Bog

I hardly stumbled upon it. I went to youtube and searched for "gay sex". I know, the whole search engine thing is new ta ya.

FTFY

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Bogs is the king of the homoerotic.

Who else would resort to posting links to gay male sex clips in order to try and prove a feeble point?

I'm just amused CJ hasn't expressed his disgust over this.

He doesn't understand how jerkoff jokes can be tolerated by a mod ... yet, it's cool to post unmarked and unwarned links to a clip of softcore gay sex?

I realize it's unlikely, but clicking on such a link is something that could seriously threaten a readers employment if they do so from work.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Rare Bog

I hardly stumbled upon it. I went to youtube and searched for "Drugs Indian Charlie". I know, the whole search engine thing is new ta ya.

LOL.... They do love each other.