Noble's Promise: Did Willie Cost him at least a placing?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It didn't " help " him, you're right....it couldn't have, but I guess in Fatmanese he's trying make people realize that it's not necessarily cut and dried that it buried him either. It's worth exploring how it changed the race.

It would be great to have many alternate universes and see what would have actually happened under many different scenerios.

A few weeks ago I turned on ATR and heard your comments concerning Looking at Lucky and the Rebel Stakes. Now, unlike Beyer, you don't stutter, and I could've sworn that I heard you almost come flat out and say that LOL got the benefit of the setup because he found trouble. In other words, you understood that by having to check while the others were in a drive, he was able to last move the field. Why is this any different than what I'm claiming for the Derby?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

A few weeks ago I turned on ATR and heard your comments concerning Looking at Lucky and the Rebel Stakes. Now, unlike Beyer, you don't stutter, and I could've sworn that I heard you almost come flat out and say that LOL got the benefit of the setup because he found trouble. In other words, you understood that by having to check while the others were in a drive, he was able to last move the field. Why is this any different than what I'm claiming for the Derby?

Comparing the supposed trouble that Lookin at Lucky had in the Rebel to the very real trouble Ice Box had in the Derby is a slippery slope. One horse steadied mildly on the backstretch while the other was stopped dead in the midst of his significant rally. Maybe Lookin at Lucky was helped because it forced his rider to make the last move, though Gomez doesn't usually have a problem with this, but I don't really see the comparison.

There is some relevence to history as well.....and a final last move in the Derby never seems to win.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Comparing the supposed trouble that Lookin at Lucky had in the Rebel to the very real trouble Ice Box had in the Derby is a slippery slope. One horse steadied mildly on the backstretch while the other was stopped dead in the midst of his significant rally. Maybe Lookin at Lucky was helped because it forced his rider to make the last move, though Gomez doesn't usually have a problem with this, but I don't really see the comparison.

There is some relevence to history as well.....and a final last move in the Derby never seems to win.

Not exactly. LaL steadied while Dublin and NP were making strong (perhaps premature) moves. This allowed him to get them late. IB checked behind horses while LaL and MMFM were in an all out drive; this allowed him to gain the last split when they fizzled out.

[iamthelurker]

I honestly think the fact that Conveyance and Sidney's Candy were stopping so badly made it look like Willy made more of a move then he really did. His horse was simply traveling better then the two tired leaders. The only move Willy made was to move in time to split the two front runners. After he split them and hit the front he sat chilly again, it's not like he went all in at the 3/8ths pole like everyone is acting. The only possible move you can critique from his ride is the fact that he didnt shut back off the rail when he did hit the front. This is a son of Cuvee and 5th in the derby is an overachievement in many ways. I dont think he was cost a placing nor do I think he is any better then what he's shown so far. He could be a very dangerous horse at a mile maybe a little more. But that's it, Willy is getting lumped way too much blame here.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by iamthelurker

I honestly think the fact that Conveyance and Sidney's Candy were stopping so badly made it look like Willy made more of a move then he really did. His horse was simply traveling better then the two tired leaders. The only move Willy made was to move in time to split the two front runners. After he split them and hit the front he sat chilly again, it's not like he went all in at the 3/8ths pole like everyone is acting. The only possible move you can critique from his ride is the fact that he didnt shut back off the rail when he did hit the front. This is a son of Cuvee and 5th in the derby is an overachievement in many ways. I dont think he was cost a placing nor do I think he is any better then what he's shown so far. He could be a very dangerous horse at a mile maybe a little more. But that's it, Willy is getting lumped way too much blame here.

This is very well stated and I very much agree with you on him inheriting the lead rather than hitting the proverbial "all in" button. Watching the overhead really reveals this.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by philcski

This is very well stated and I very much agree with you on him inheriting the lead rather than hitting the proverbial "all in" button. Watching the overhead really reveals this.

Watch the replay and watch his hands. He was all in.

[iamthelurker]

I have watched the replay and the head on, Willy pushed to make the gap between two tiring horses. Its clear as day he drops his hands back down after he splits them. He saw the upcoming logjam about to happen and avoided it. All in would of been a full hand ride from the 3/8ths on which he didnt do at all. He actually didnt even hit his horse until Super Saver shouldered him. So I think its you who should go watch the replay again.

[The Bid]

Willie is the human sail. What an honest horse noble is. He coulda ran 3rd, but that was a monumental effort seeing he doesn't want to run anywhere near that far. I was really impressed w noble and icebox. Lucky also passed a lot of horses late after a terrible first half

After watching the race over and over I have come to the same conclusion I always come to. The majority of problems were caused by Kent dedumbeaux. How he remains a top rider i have no idea. No ride in derby was worse than dedumbeaux. Not only did he cause his horse to lose he also eliminated 3 others from being a factor. It was noberto arroyo-esque

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by iamthelurker

I have watched the replay and the head on, Willy pushed to make the gap between two tiring horses. Its clear as day he drops his hands back down after he splits them. He saw the upcoming logjam about to happen and avoided it. All in would of been a full hand ride from the 3/8ths on which he didnt do at all. He actually didnt even hit his horse until Super Saver shouldered him. So I think its you who should go watch the replay again.

I watched the replay and it becomes even more clear. He pushes the horse (and this was after he used the horse to get position in the first place). Perhaps you are right that he wasn't "all in" at that point but how many moves was that horse supposed to make? Was he trying to give him a breather and then make another move???? Maybe he wasn't "all in" but if you put 3/4th of your chip stack on the flop, you might as well be. No?

What happens if he doesnt make the move early and sits chilly until the end of the turn? Is it possible that a tiring horse on that sloppy track might not be able to hold the rail? And if thats the case, wouldn't that leave everyone else in the jam considering he still had opportunity for first run? SuperSaver sure doesnt get the same trip.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by iamthelurker

I honestly think the fact that Conveyance and Sidney's Candy were stopping so badly made it look like Willy made more of a move then he really did. His horse was simply traveling better then the two tired leaders. The only move Willy made was to move in time to split the two front runners. After he split them and hit the front he sat chilly again, it's not like he went all in at the 3/8ths pole like everyone is acting. The only possible move you can critique from his ride is the fact that he didnt shut back off the rail when he did hit the front. This is a son of Cuvee and 5th in the derby is an overachievement in many ways. I dont think he was cost a placing nor do I think he is any better then what he's shown so far. He could be a very dangerous horse at a mile maybe a little more. But that's it, Willy is getting lumped way too much blame here.

Deja Vu