100k to win...

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

I think he was joking

Actually, I wasn't.

They both seemed like improbable winners based on running style, so why not take a flyer on the higher priced one that just beat the shorter priced one.

Next time though, I'm going to blink myself charts for the Derby before the race is run.

[westcoastinvader]

Originally Posted by Danzig

betting on borel probably...

In the interview immediately after the race the $900,000 guy mentioned he noted Calvin Borel already had winners on the day when he placed the $100,000 on Super Saver.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

What kind of impact did that have on Super Saver's odds given a lot of money is bet on him and on Calvin already? I wondered how much the 8-1 drop to 7-1 was that, and how much was just a bunch of last minute runs to the windows. Surely it's a boatload of money as is. Can the needle really move that much with 100K at this point?

There's no doubt Super Saver was an underlay yesterday, 100K into the win pool, plus the Borel effect, and the publicity the bet generated on this pick no doubt lowered SS's odds. Overall I don't know if I approve of these gimmick plays; however you have to say good on that guy for picking the winner, that's 2 for 2 with last year's Goldikova win bet.

[pucknut]

exactly the irs will be there with both hands out
now all he needs to do is get programs and losing tickets that total 900k and its tax free

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by PeteMugg

I thought if it was over a certain amount the IRS would step in to get their share regardless of how much was wagered. I'd bet they will be greeting him at the windows.

don't you mean thier fair share

[PeteMugg]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

don't you mean thier fair share

Haha, well, I wouldn't call it fair.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

What kind of impact did that have on Super Saver's odds given a lot of money is bet on him and on Calvin already? I wondered how much the 8-1 drop to 7-1 was that, and how much was just a bunch of last minute runs to the windows. Surely it's a boatload of money as is. Can the needle really move that much with 100K at this point?

$0.60 according to Steve Crist: http://cristblog.drf.com/crist/2010/05/sixty-cents.html

The $100,000 increased Super Saver's share of the win pool from 8.97 % to 9.27 %, dropping his odds from 8.36-1 to 8.06-1 (after breakage, from 8.30-1 to 8.00-1.) So it appears that Super Saver would have paid $18.60 rather than $18.00 to win had the bet not been part of the pool. Conversely, had Ice Box finished first rather than 2nd, he would have paid $25.40, but without the bet he would have paid $25.20.