ALL w/ ALL ??

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

It's actually a $380 investment, and I think there's at least a 50% chance of you showing a profit.

For a 1$ bet. 20X19X1

760 for a 2....Pass

[tanner12oz]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

For a 1$ bet. 20X19X1

760 for a 2....Pass

you do know the average payout for the last 10 years is something like $1500 bucks right?

[letswastemoney]

I think you can toss the turf horses at least.

[randallscott35]

[quote=tanner12oz;640873]you do know the average payout for the last 10 years is something like $1500 bucks right?[/QUOTE

Yes, the median would be a better example here. You expect a Giac/Clos Arg exacta here? (That was what 9 grand or something) Quite a skew.

[tanner12oz]

[quote=randallscott35;640880]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

you do know the average payout for the last 10 years is something like $1500 bucks right?[/QUOTE

Yes, the median would be a better example here. You expect a Giac/Clos Arg exacta here? (That was what 9 grand or something) Quite a skew.

yeah obviously that is an extreme example and i dont think there is a high probability of that happening...i also think there is a high probability of both lookin at lucky and sidneys candy running out... something in the 10/1-20/1 over a 10/1-20/1 is what im expecting (average win price is $29 bucks past 10 years)

2009: Mine That Bird/Pioneerof the Nile $2,074.80
2008: Big Brown/Eight Belles $141.60
2007: Street Sense/Hard Spun $101.80
2006: Barbaro/Bluegrass Cat $587.00
2005: Giacomo/Closing Argument $9,814.80
2004: Smarty Jones/Lion Heart $65.20
2003: Funny Cide/Empire Maker $97.00
2002: War Emblem/Proud Citizen $1,300.80
2001: Monarchos/Invisible Ink $1,229.00
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus/Aptitude $66.00

[randallscott35]

I wouldn't be too happy if I bet 760 bucks and got back 150...but that's me.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I wouldn't be too happy if I bet 760 bucks and got back 150...but that's me.

c'mon you get to say you hit the exacta in the derby....it only cost you $610...lol

[Port Conway Lane]

$84 total

never beaten by another derby entrant (and has defeated another entrant) exacta box
Jackson Bend
Sidney's Candy
Conveyance
Line of David

finished itm in slop exacta box
Mission Impazible
Super Saver
Devil May Care
Backtalk

top beyer exacta box
Sidney's Candy 100
Devil May Care 100
Jackson Bend 100
Conveyance 99
Ice Box 99

itm at churchill exacta box
Backtalk
Super Saver
Mission Impazible

never lost on dirt exacta box
Lookin At Lucky
Line of David
American Lion

never ran on dirt exacta box
Make Music for Me
Sidney's Candy

never won on dirt (and has run on dirt) exacta box
Paddy O'Prado
Dean's Kitten
Stately Victor

horses that didn't qualify for any list above exacta box
Noble's Promise
Dublin
Discreetly Mine
Awesome Act
Homeboykris

[wapete]

Interesting cover all play... I looked at the number quickly and the average exacta from last 10 years is $1547. Once you throw out the $9800 2005 result the average payout is $628 or roughly 82% of your $2 exacta box to cover 20x19 ($760). Historically you can expect to lose ~ 18% on the bet which is about inline with exotic takeouts.

I guess the strategy is you're hoping for a 50-1 to hit the top 2. If so, you might as well just take the 4 horses that are ML 50-1+ and box each one individually with All others. Each key bx would be $76 so in total you would be out $304. This play would of hit the exacta in both 2005 and 2009. You should expect to either lose all $300 or win $2k+.

[quote=tanner12oz;640901]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

yeah obviously that is an extreme example and i dont think there is a high probability of that happening...i also think there is a high probability of both lookin at lucky and sidneys candy running out... something in the 10/1-20/1 over a 10/1-20/1 is what im expecting (average win price is $29 bucks past 10 years)

2009: Mine That Bird/Pioneerof the Nile $2,074.80
2008: Big Brown/Eight Belles $141.60
2007: Street Sense/Hard Spun $101.80
2006: Barbaro/Bluegrass Cat $587.00
2005: Giacomo/Closing Argument $9,814.80
2004: Smarty Jones/Lion Heart $65.20
2003: Funny Cide/Empire Maker $97.00
2002: War Emblem/Proud Citizen $1,300.80
2001: Monarchos/Invisible Ink $1,229.00
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus/Aptitude $66.00

[Riot]

Outstanding

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane
$84 total

[tector]

"Average payout"--I don't know that the mean is the figure you want. I think the median would be more illustrative. It is $364.30.

I think you have to actively dislike two or three of the top picks to make this work at all. And until you know the projected "chalk" exactas, you are kind of in the dark. All of the "low" exactas in the past decade involved at least one chalk horse.

[wapete]

tector,

agreed... think the point I was trying to make was without the '05 or '09 results which had 50-1 bomber the payout it much much less... those results skew the average.

if you believe the two favs finish outside the top 2 the all w/all should be profitable.

I just don't have the bankroll to try it.

[cloud_break]

[quote=wapete;640940]Interesting cover all play... I looked at the number quickly and the average exacta from last 10 years is $1547. Once you throw out the $9800 2005 result the average payout is $628 or roughly 82% of your $2 exacta box to cover 20x19 ($760). Historically you can expect to lose ~ 18% on the bet which is about inline with exotic takeouts.

I guess the strategy is you're hoping for a 50-1 to hit the top 2. If so, you might as well just take the 4 horses that are ML 50-1+ and box each one individually with All others. Each key bx would be $76 so in total you would be out $304. This play would of hit the exacta in both 2005 and 2009. You should expect to either lose all $300 or win $2k+.



Very good idea for fence swinging. Better to save on the front end than cash a "loser" if its LAL and Icebox

[docicu3]

It may not be worth it in the exacta but buying a free square in the exotics has been very very good to me over the years in this race and the Preakness.

To get the benefit though you have to spend some money. Last year

All/1,2,15,16/1,2,15,16 paid 20K for $1 which I was lucky enough to have twice. Buying a wheel in these pools can be very very rewarding if you have a little luck and some knowledge that fills.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by docicu3

It may not be worth it in the exacta but buying a free square in the exotics has been very very good to me over the years in this race and the Preakness.

To get the benefit though you have to spend some money. Last year

All/1,2,15,16/1,2,15,16 paid 20K for $1 which I was lucky enough to have twice. Buying a wheel in these pools can be very very rewarding if you have a little luck and some knowledge that fills.

^^^ Thinly veiled redboard...


Just kidding, I know Doc had this beast... he took me to the Preakness last year because of it.