Derby futures

[Scav]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

So Munnings and Nite Light are crippled too? They might not be very good but the wraps going on Eskendereya I think are hardly a concern.

Are you basing the opinion that he's a cripple solely on the wraps?

NT

I might just be looking to bet against a horse at 9/5 in a 20 horse field.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Scav

I might just be looking to bet against a horse at 9/5 in a 20 horse field.

I would never argue with that I would just say that there has to be more sound rationale than assuming he's crippled.

My biggest concerns with Eskendereya are where he's going to be early in a race that will have a significantly faster pace than what he's recently seen and how frazzled John Velazquez is going to be.

The two best non-Calvin Borel rides in recent Derby memory to me were Desormeaux on Big Brown and that was mostly because the horse was just 1000x better than his competition and Prado on Barbaro, which was a similar situation. Both times they let their horse settle into a good stalking spot and took off when ready. Considering how tractable Eskendereya is I think it won't cause an issue. Basically, I'm saying that JV needs to not panic if he's a bit farther back than normal, that's likely going to happen. If he tries to ride the horse to stay with the pace early then I don't know if he can win, I can't be sure he's THAT much better than the rest of the crop.

NT

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

My biggest concerns with Eskendereya are where he's going to be early in a race that will have a significantly faster pace than what he's recently seen and how frazzled John Velazquez is going to be.

The two best non-Calvin Borel rides in recent Derby memory to me were Desormeaux on Big Brown and that was mostly because the horse was just 1000x better than his competition and Prado on Barbaro, which was a similar situation. Both times they let their horse settle into a good stalking spot and took off when ready. Considering how tractable Eskendereya is I think it won't cause an issue. Basically, I'm saying that JV needs to not panic if he's a bit farther back than normal, that's likely going to happen. If he tries to ride the horse to stay with the pace early then I don't know if he can win, I can't be sure he's THAT much better than the rest of the crop.

It's not just about Velazquez. One of the nagging questions about Eskendereya, IMO, is what do you make of his Breeders' Cup effort (and I say that as someone who liked him that day off his Pilgrim). That was the only race where he did not get a favorable trip and causes me to have at least some doubts about how he may handle the Derby experience. Was the performance a result of him not caring for the synthetic racing surface (even though he was bred to handle it and had run well in his turf debut), or was it that he did not handle racing in traffic that well? If he's going to be mid-pack in the Derby and the BC Juvenile is indicative of how he may handle adversity, then the Derby's a wide-open affair. Of course, he may have matured since the BC to the extent that this is a non-issue; can any of us know for certain?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

It's not just about Velazquez. One of the nagging questions about Eskendereya, IMO, is what do you make of his Breeders' Cup effort (and I say that as someone who liked him that day off his Pilgrim). That was the only race where he did not get a favorable trip and causes me to have at least some doubts about how he may handle the Derby experience. Was the performance a result of him not caring for the synthetic racing surface (even though he was bred to handle it and had run well in his turf debut), or was it that he did not handle racing in traffic that well? If he's going to be mid-pack in the Derby and the BC Juvenile is indicative of how he may handle adversity, then the Derby's a wide-open affair. Of course, he may have matured since the BC to the extent that this is a non-issue; can any of us know for certain?

I think his BC is of little concern for the Derby aside from some of the external factors you brought up.

He was away poorly after getting knocked a bit sideways at the start, was checked out of contention on the first turn, and had to deal with a race flow that really was not in his favor. However, comparing 2YO Eskendereya with two prior starts to the Eskendereya that will be favored on May 1 is unfair.

Are a poor break, traffic, and a less than ideal pace setup issues that he may have to deal with? Sure and these are the basis for why many people choose to play against the favorite. However, I brought up Barbaro and Big Brown because they both had somewhat similar running styles to him and were ridden as if they were the best horses in the group and they completely capitalized.

Andy brought up when he was on with Steve last Monday that Eskendereya's Pilgrim is a race that some ought to consider when they bring up that he may have to come from farther off the pace. He raced in and among horses for some period of time and proved to be more than up to the task when the question was asked. I'd be concerned if I felt that he may have some underlying distance issues but one thing I know I'm confident about is that the longer they ask him to go the better he's going to run. That being said, should things not work out on May 1 I hope that he is pointed directly at the Belmont because I think it's a race for which he's tailor made.

NT

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Andy brought up when he was on with Steve last Monday that Eskendereya's Pilgrim is a race that some ought to consider when they bring up that he may have to come from farther off the pace. He raced in and among horses for some period of time and proved to be more than up to the task when the question was asked. I'd be concerned if I felt that he may have some underlying distance issues but one thing I know I'm confident about is that the longer they ask him to go the better he's going to run. That being said, should things not work out on May 1 I hope that he is pointed directly at the Belmont because I think it's a race for which he's tailor made.

The BC Juvenile may not portend how a more experienced Eskendereya will perform on May 1, but looking to the Pilgrim as a predictor is probably fraught with peril, unless you are looking for the following similarities: Dean's Kitten will flounder on dirt, and it will be a strung-out field with over 30 lengths from the winner to the last-place finisher. The Pilgrim was a 5-horse field. Comfortably running covered up in a short field with moderate fractions (23.4, 47.4, 1:12.4, 1:37.4) in a one-turn mile is a far cry from the likely Derby scenario.

If history is any guide, assuming soundness and a trainer calling the shots, if Eskendereya fails to win the Derby, I would be shocked if Pletcher did anything but pass the Preakness and point to the Belmont.