Derby futures

[The Bid]

Nothing that came out of that race will factor. That was a terrible race. The only horse in there I would consider using is Nobles Promise and that would be underneath. Hes at least genuine, can run the distance, and has shown that hes just as good as a 3 as he was as a juvy. To me hes the only horse of consequence out of that last Arky race. The top 3, total garbage.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by The Bid

Nothing that came out of that race will factor. That was a terrible race. The only horse in there I would consider using is Nobles Promise and that would be underneath. Hes at least genuine, can run the distance, and has shown that hes just as good as a 3 as he was as a juvy. To me hes the only horse of consequence out of that last Arky race. The top 3, total garbage.

See, I can't stand Noble's Promise....Not a fan at all with him, if he runs in the top two I am in alot of trouble on Derby Day.

[The Bid]

Im not a fan,but if you made me take one out of that race hes the only logical horse you can take. He had a ton of trouble in there and still really didn't get licked to bad on a surface that was pretty front end. I think hes the only one worth a look moving forward.

Thats if he even runs on to the Derby. Mcpeek sounded like he was gonna skip

[Scav]

Originally Posted by The Bid

Im not a fan,but if you made me take one out of that race hes the only logical horse you can take. He had a ton of trouble in there and still really didn't get licked to bad on a surface that was pretty front end. I think hes the only one worth a look moving forward.

Thats if he even runs on to the Derby. Mcpeek sounded like he was gonna skip

I would hate that if he did. Alot is gonna happen in the next 20 days...

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Bid

Nothing that came out of that race will factor. That was a terrible race. The only horse in there I would consider using is Nobles Promise and that would be underneath. Hes at least genuine, can run the distance, and has shown that hes just as good as a 3 as he was as a juvy. To me hes the only horse of consequence out of that last Arky race. The top 3, total garbage.

Not a chance I bet a Cuvee-Clever Trick going 10F. I'm not a big pedigree guy- but eventually breeding like that catches up to him. Noble's Promise is his only stakes winner going 2 turns. He's a nice horse, but the Derby isn't the right spot for him, especially with McPeek saying he's banged up.

I can't find a race in this prep season I actually liked, PERIOD. Obviously Esken's Wood ranks high- but I have a very strong feeling they are holding this one together with string and tape, Pletcher putting wraps on is a HUGE negative. And besides him... they all pretty much suck.

[JerseyJ]

While I like Wayne and I don't think Dublin can win I'll back up the point that he can easily be used underneath...what's likely to happen is he's going to have to revert to his Southwest run where he's going to be 10+ lengths off what is going to be a torrid pace as before I even pick any horses, although I am leaning towards Awesome Act right now, is that he can absolutely hit the board because right away any horse who wants the lead is an automatic toss, and a reason I favor a horse like Dublin over Super Saver is that Super Saver is going to be totally out of his element because he's going to be 5-10+ lengths off the early lead whereas a horse like Dublin has shown he can settle way back and make one late run if the scenario would set it up...while horses like Eskendereya, Awesome Act, et al are higher on my list, I will use Dublin a bit underneath as he's one of about 6 or 7 horses that have a shot to get into the number whereas the other 13 are hopeless.

[The Bid]

Im not sure that horse is real banged up. I think Mcpeek probably agrees with you and would rather try the preakness after the others are softened up a little. I would have the same reservations about him carrying that run on 1 1/4, hes already well beyond his scope. That being said the really good ones do things they aren't supposed to do. Unfortunately Dublin isn't a really good one.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by philcski

Not a chance I bet a Cuvee-Clever Trick going 10F. I'm not a big pedigree guy- but eventually breeding like that catches up to him. Noble's Promise is his only stakes winner going 2 turns. He's a nice horse, but the Derby isn't the right spot for him, especially with McPeek saying he's banged up.

I can't find a race in this prep season I actually liked, PERIOD. Obviously Esken's Wood ranks high- but I have a very strong feeling they are holding this one together with string and tape, Pletcher putting wraps on is a HUGE negative. And besides him... they all pretty much suck.

His 2 turn win was on Poly also, if it was on dirt it would be a different story.

I agree about Esky, I can care less what they are saying about another horse run down earlier in the day. What is he gonna say, "He's a race away from being dead lame but we can get one more out of him"

[JerseyJ]

I mean the way it looks the following are auto tosses due to running style:

Rule
Line of David
Conveyance
American Lion
Super Saver

The following are tosses because they are just really bad horses or haven't proven they can run on dirt any good:

Mission Impazible
Stately Victor
Discreetly Mine
Dean's Kitten
Interactif
Paddy O'Prady
Homeboykris (mainly because Dutrow is making a moronic decision here him being off 8 weeks).

That's 12 easy tosses right there leaving me with 8 contenders for the number.

[The Bid]

I haven't decided to auto toss American Lion yet. I want to decide to,but I havent. The others you have listed I agree with.

I think Impaz and Victor you cannot toss. Impaz had a bad trip at Oaklawn was his first run against those kind. Came back and ran well enough to win,but not well enough to dazzle. He has had pleanty of time between and I think he will at the very least be around till the last bit of the Derby. Victor I know will handle the surface. Kitten cannot stand up on the dirt, and I doubt very seriously Prado is even a good horse. Homeboy and Interactif are auto outs for me.

[Port Conway Lane]

I'm not so sure Rule is an instant throwout. He's one of the few horses in the field who's never been out of the money and his speed figures are every bit as good as anyone except Esky,Sydney or Endorsement.
As for his running style he appears headstrong but I can't help thinking that if given an opportunity to rate behind horses he could. In a Derby field that certainly looks laced with front end speed types there will be a few of them who will have no alternative but to make an attempt from off the pace. At that point it comes down to talent and ability to get the distance.
He's had a good foundation and although he failed in his most recent test if he build on that by working up to the race he could be one to sneak in to the super.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

I'm not so sure Rule is an instant throwout. He's one of the few horses in the field who's never been out of the money and his speed figures are every bit as good as anyone except Esky,Sydney or Endorsement.
As for his running style he appears headstrong but I can't help thinking that if given an opportunity to rate behind horses he could. In a Derby field that certainly looks laced with front end speed types there will be a few of them who will have no alternative but to make an attempt from off the pace. At that point it comes down to talent and ability to get the distance.
He's had a good foundation and although he failed in his most recent test if he build on that by working up to the race he could be one to sneak in to the super.

I'm with you....it will probably be tough up front, no doubt, but his Florida Derby was really good and it was on dirt. If you like Sidney's Candy, they you are making an assumption that the pace won't cause a complete meltdown. Put the same pace scenario on Rule, look at his figures compared to Candy (or anyone except Esky), and you have one with a shot at 20-1 or better. Of all of the dirt preps this spring, he was the only one that ran fast fractions and had a fast final. Go back through his dirt routes and he was pressed through fast or at least honest fractions, yet still managed to finish well.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Scav

His 2 turn win was on Poly also, if it was on dirt it would be a different story.

I agree about Esky, I can care less what they are saying about another horse run down earlier in the day. What is he gonna say, "He's a race away from being dead lame but we can get one more out of him"

So Munnings and Nite Light are crippled too? They might not be very good but the wraps going on Eskendereya I think are hardly a concern.

Are you basing the opinion that he's a cripple solely on the wraps?

NT

[Scav]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

So Munnings and Nite Light are crippled too? They might not be very good but the wraps going on Eskendereya I think are hardly a concern.

Are you basing the opinion that he's a cripple solely on the wraps?

NT

I might just be looking to bet against a horse at 9/5 in a 20 horse field.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Scav

I might just be looking to bet against a horse at 9/5 in a 20 horse field.

I would never argue with that I would just say that there has to be more sound rationale than assuming he's crippled.

My biggest concerns with Eskendereya are where he's going to be early in a race that will have a significantly faster pace than what he's recently seen and how frazzled John Velazquez is going to be.

The two best non-Calvin Borel rides in recent Derby memory to me were Desormeaux on Big Brown and that was mostly because the horse was just 1000x better than his competition and Prado on Barbaro, which was a similar situation. Both times they let their horse settle into a good stalking spot and took off when ready. Considering how tractable Eskendereya is I think it won't cause an issue. Basically, I'm saying that JV needs to not panic if he's a bit farther back than normal, that's likely going to happen. If he tries to ride the horse to stay with the pace early then I don't know if he can win, I can't be sure he's THAT much better than the rest of the crop.

NT

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

My biggest concerns with Eskendereya are where he's going to be early in a race that will have a significantly faster pace than what he's recently seen and how frazzled John Velazquez is going to be.

The two best non-Calvin Borel rides in recent Derby memory to me were Desormeaux on Big Brown and that was mostly because the horse was just 1000x better than his competition and Prado on Barbaro, which was a similar situation. Both times they let their horse settle into a good stalking spot and took off when ready. Considering how tractable Eskendereya is I think it won't cause an issue. Basically, I'm saying that JV needs to not panic if he's a bit farther back than normal, that's likely going to happen. If he tries to ride the horse to stay with the pace early then I don't know if he can win, I can't be sure he's THAT much better than the rest of the crop.

It's not just about Velazquez. One of the nagging questions about Eskendereya, IMO, is what do you make of his Breeders' Cup effort (and I say that as someone who liked him that day off his Pilgrim). That was the only race where he did not get a favorable trip and causes me to have at least some doubts about how he may handle the Derby experience. Was the performance a result of him not caring for the synthetic racing surface (even though he was bred to handle it and had run well in his turf debut), or was it that he did not handle racing in traffic that well? If he's going to be mid-pack in the Derby and the BC Juvenile is indicative of how he may handle adversity, then the Derby's a wide-open affair. Of course, he may have matured since the BC to the extent that this is a non-issue; can any of us know for certain?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

So Munnings and Nite Light are crippled too? They might not be very good but the wraps going on Eskendereya I think are hardly a concern.

Are you basing the opinion that he's a cripple solely on the wraps?

NT

No (despite Munnings running quite poorly), but it's certainly something that makes you pause before taking 2-1 in a 20 horse field, even on a horse that on paper towers over the rest.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

So Munnings and Nite Light are crippled too? They might not be very good but the wraps going on Eskendereya I think are hardly a concern.

Are you basing the opinion that he's a cripple solely on the wraps?

NT

I've seen better knees on Estelle Getty(http://i103.photobucket.com/albums/m...l/DSC_4989.jpg if he is being shopped(which he was after FOY), your obvious out is that all of Pletchers horses wore them that day. Makes perfect sense. Empire Maker was held together with duct tape and almost got there in the Derby...I wouldn't want to see them on Derby raceday I can tell you that.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I've seen better knees on Estelle Getty(http://i103.photobucket.com/albums/m...l/DSC_4989.jpg if he is being shopped(which he was after FOY), your obvious out is that all of Pletchers horses wore them that day. Makes perfect sense. Empire Maker was held together with duct tape and almost got there in the Derby...I wouldn't want to see them on Derby raceday I can tell you that.

Look, if you or anyone else wants to say that the wraps going on speaks to his fitness (or lack thereof) and use that as a reason to bet against him, that's fine. I've seen a lot of complete goats look terrific in the paddock. However, many, many people saw this horse in person and I've heard nary a mention of him having physical problems. I saw him in February and he looked fine, especially walking around in a paddock with a horse who did not look well at all (Buddy's Saint). Of course I'd probably have a better chance of diagnosing a deviated septom than an injured equine and I'm no ENT doctor.

NT

[Dunbar]

After several days without a line, TheGreek has put its Derby futures back up:

1201 Lookin At Lucky +425
1202 Nobles Promise +4050
1203 Rule +2550
1204 Sidneys Candy +825
1205 Eskendereya +205
1206 Mission Impazible +3050
1207 Ice Box +3050
1208 Endorsement +2550
1209 Conveyance +3550
1210 American Lion +2050
1211 Discreetly Mine +5250
1212 Deans Kitten +5250
1213 Awesome Act +1615
1214 Dublin +2250
1215 Interactif +3550
1216 Homeboykris +6050
1217 Jackson Bend +3050
1218 Backtalk +6050
1220 Make Music for Me +6050
1225 Super Saver +2050
1226 Stately Victor +2250
1227 Paddy Oprado +4050
1228 Line of David +4050

The "takeout" in this line is about 20%, and the line doesn't even include the horses that might get in from the Derby Trial or the filly.

5Dimes doesn't have odds up yet. Too busy taking action on who will win the Nathans Hotdog eating contest, I guess:

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest - Coney Island, New York - ESPN
Joey Chestnut must compete for action
Sun 7/4 101 Nathan's winner eats over 72½ hot dogs +110
12:15PM 102 Nathan's winner eats under 72½ hot dogs -150


Bookmaker (CRIS) has Derby futures on about 100 horses, including such tempting propositions at Buddy's Saint at 11-1 and Lentenor at 60-1. For the horses that might actually run, Bookmaker's odds are uniformly worse than TheGreek's.

--Dunbar