Steve Davidowitz' Pool#1 Exacta Plays explained

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by StevenLD

Thick skin certainly is required, I am sure. And make no mistake, this is not my first ride around the park. But, when someone tells me to "calm down" that was a personal shot that had nothing to do with the content of the post. If someone disagrees with the way I layed out the tickets, by all means say so. If someone doubts the quality of Eskenderaya's performance so be it. But "calm down" does not fit that bill. Again, I spelled out my misgivings about posting here and we'll see how it all works out.

check out the "Derby will have a fast pace" thread.. or any thread involving Vic S. or politics..

I agree with you about Eskenderaya. Loved that race on Saturday.. reminded me a bit of Monarcho's FL Derby even if it was a different set up.. got that same "feeling" which of course I abandoned come Derby day in favor of a stupid Goldolphin horse City Palace or something like that...

[randallscott35]

Eskendereya 22-1 in the first pool to me is no bargain and that is even after that race the other day. You are a long way away from even being in the gate, let alone winning it. Being calm is just the way to go....Had Sweetnorthernsaint at 100-1 in the futures and AP Warrior 115-1 in the same Derby. Got back oogots....Would I book straight money at 20-1 right now on Esken. Yes.

[randallscott35]

I hasten to add that the numbers Pletcher has been getting since January are starting to get into the Goldphin last summer territory...to the point that Brown over at Thoro said he will post soon about how ridiculous they are with the numbers themselves.....Up and up? Not for me.

[StevenLD]

I didn't bet Eskendereya to win.
My layout was an EXACTA PLAY that also involved possible win by #24 (All others).

Even though you slip slide away, it was totally uncool of you to tell me to "calm down". . .As for you taking a bet on Eskendereya at 22-1 right now. I'll take $200 to win on that, if you're willing to live by your words. And the group here is witness to your offer.

He's no cinch by any means. . .If you read the bottom of my post you should see that I am not a big fan of Pletcher's handling of Derby horses. . .But 22-1 after Eskendereya already has won two route races this year including his F of Y romp, seems worth it to me. In fact, I mght even get 'excited' by the prospect of getting 22-1 from you on a horse who will be about 6-1 or lower in pool #2.

Rules: The day he falls out of the Derby picture, or loses the Derby I will send you $200. If he wins the Derby, on Monday after the race, you will send me $4400. Reply required to enforce the bet. Failure to reply will simply mean that YOU have "calmed down".

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by StevenLD

I didn't bet Eskendereya to win.
My layout was an EXACTA PLAY that also involved possible win by #24 (All others).

Even though you slip slide away, it was totally uncool of you to tell me to "calm down". . .As for you taking a bet on Eskendereya at 22-1 right now. I'll take $200 to win on that, if you're willing to live by your words. And the group here is witness to your offer.

He's no cinch by any means. . .If you read the bottom of my post you should see that I am not a big fan of Pletcher's handling of Derby horses. . .But 22-1 after Eskendereya already has won two route races this year including his F of Y romp, seems worth it to me. In fact, I mght even get 'excited' by the prospect of getting 22-1 from you on a horse who will be about 6-1 or lower in pool #2.

Rules: The day he falls out of the Derby picture, or loses the Derby I will send you $200. If he wins the Derby, on Monday after the race, you will send me $4400. Reply required to enforce the bet. Failure to reply will simply mean that YOU have "calmed down".

No thanks, Steve is not a proponent of bets on here for good reason. My stance on future bets is as follows, if it isn't over 50-1 I don't see it as a good bet at virtually any time save for the field and only at odds over 3-1....But good luck on your bets....I sincerely hope you cash though I won't be playing Pletcher on Derby Day again.

[StevenLD]

Just to set the record straight:
Forgive me for noticing that you stated clearly that you would take a win bet on Eskendereya right now at 20-1. Also, forgive me then, for concluding that you really are not willing to do so. (private e-mail exchanges are available, I believe.)

And, as pointed out, I did not make a win bet on the horse in the Pool #1.
I layed out for claarification the Exactas I half mentioned on the air, and that #24 was an equal part of the win end of the play.

Bottom line: When I post here, I reserve the right to counter innacuracies and personally aimed shots. I can guarantee that I always will leave ample room for other opinions and will greatly respect good points of view. End of thread from my side of this.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by StevenLD

Just to set the record straight:
Forgive me for noticing that you stated clearly that you would take a win bet on Eskendereya right now at 20-1. Also, forgive me then, for concluding that you really are not willing to do so. (private e-mail exchanges are available, I believe.)

And, as pointed out, I did not make a win bet on the horse in the Pool #1.
I layed out for claarification the Exactas I half mentioned on the air, and that #24 was an equal part of the win end of the play.

Bottom line: When I post here, I reserve the right to counter innacuracies and personally aimed shots. I can guarantee that I always will leave ample room for other opinions and will greatly respect good points of view. End of thread from my side of this.

If calm down is a personal shot on here than I am sorry. I don't think it is....You kindly offered 22-1 in your proposal which is funny since I clearly stated 20-1. You have since corrected your own error...My point, if I may from the beginning has more to do with the words you used in your initial post than anything else. You say "reasonable outcome"....I suggest betting the exacta on a race 3 months in advance, there are no reasonable outcomes at all. None. Period. You don't even know who will be in the gate, what post, what weather condition etc.......If you had said I feel these are value, we have a different argument and no calm down from me at all....But if you need a "sorry" to break the ice and a beer in Toga, than so be it.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

No thanks, Steve is not a proponent of bets on here for good reason. My stance on future bets is as follows, if it isn't over 50-1 I don't see it as a good bet at virtually any time save for the field and only at odds over 3-1....But good luck on your bets....I sincerely hope you cash though I won't be playing Pletcher on Derby Day again.

lol

can you say backpedal

[MISTERGEE]

Originally Posted by StevenLD

I didn't bet Eskendereya to win.
My layout was an EXACTA PLAY that also involved possible win by #24 (All others).

Even though you slip slide away, it was totally uncool of you to tell me to "calm down". . .As for you taking a bet on Eskendereya at 22-1 right now. I'll take $200 to win on that, if you're willing to live by your words. And the group here is witness to your offer.

He's no cinch by any means. . .If you read the bottom of my post you should see that I am not a big fan of Pletcher's handling of Derby horses. . .But 22-1 after Eskendereya already has won two route races this year including his F of Y romp, seems worth it to me. In fact, I mght even get 'excited' by the prospect of getting 22-1 from you on a horse who will be about 6-1 or lower in pool #2.

Rules: The day he falls out of the Derby picture, or loses the Derby I will send you $200. If he wins the Derby, on Monday after the race, you will send me $4400. Reply required to enforce the bet. Failure to reply will simply mean that YOU have "calmed down".

for some reason I have enjoyed this particular post almost as much as any ever.All Our opinions are what this site is mostly built on. I appreciate you putting yout thought out there please keep it up as we all should

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by StevenLD

I didn't bet Eskendereya to win.
My layout was an EXACTA PLAY that also involved possible win by #24 (All others).

Even though you slip slide away, it was totally uncool of you to tell me to "calm down". . .As for you taking a bet on Eskendereya at 22-1 right now. I'll take $200 to win on that, if you're willing to live by your words. And the group here is witness to your offer.

He's no cinch by any means. . .If you read the bottom of my post you should see that I am not a big fan of Pletcher's handling of Derby horses. . .But 22-1 after Eskendereya already has won two route races this year including his F of Y romp, seems worth it to me. In fact, I mght even get 'excited' by the prospect of getting 22-1 from you on a horse who will be about 6-1 or lower in pool #2.

Rules: The day he falls out of the Derby picture, or loses the Derby I will send you $200. If he wins the Derby, on Monday after the race, you will send me $4400. Reply required to enforce the bet. Failure to reply will simply mean that YOU have "calmed down".

well done..

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Eskendereya 22-1 in the first pool to me is no bargain and that is even after that race the other day. You are a long way away from even being in the gate, let alone winning it. Being calm is just the way to go....Had Sweetnorthernsaint at 100-1 in the futures and AP Warrior 115-1 in the same Derby. Got back oogots....Would I book straight money at 20-1 right now on Esken. Yes.

yeah I'm a friggin idiot.. the only future I ever played was on Bellamy Road after he won the Wood cause he was like 20-1.. I was thinking "20-1 NO WAY" so I put a few bucks on him

Then my dumbass realizes that we are in America, and there are no fixed odds, and he closed out at like 3-1.