I believe the only three

[CSC]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

females to run in the Breeders Cup Classic are Zenyatta and these two....




It really makes you think back to the BC Distaff in '95 .. when Inside Information obliterated the deepest field in the history of the race.

After her race and Cigar's race in the Classic that day ... anyone with the slightest understanding of sound handicapping had to know that II would have certainly won the Classic that day had she been in it.

You just can't make a blanket assumption like this because we should know by now some horses run to their competition, this was the danger of underestimating Zenyatta prior to the Classic because she ran 90ish beyers in preps. All we know is she runs by Lethal Heat, Life is Sweet the same way she runs by Gio Ponti. We just don't know what Cigar would have done had he run against II earlier in the day or how II would have run at a distance a furlong further on a different type of track.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by CSC

You just can't make a blanket assumption like this because we should know by now some horses run to their competition, this was the danger of underestimating Zenyatta prior to the Classic because she ran 90ish beyers in preps. All we know is she runs by Lethal Heat, Life is Sweet the same way she runs by Gio Ponti. We just don't know what Cigar would have done had he run against II earlier in the day or how II would have run at a distance a furlong further on a different type of track.

says the guys who says zenyatta would beat rachel IF rachel ran in such and such race.

blanket assumption at its best

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

says the guys who says zenyatta would beat rachel IF rachel ran in such and such race.

blanket assumption at its best

Works both ways doesn't it? RA could have run in the Classic if they chose to. Yes, no?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by CSC

You just can't make a blanket assumption like this because we should know by now some horses run to their competition, this was the danger of underestimating Zenyatta prior to the Classic.

Horses don't run to their competiton.

If you put Zenyatta in with claimers ... she would bury them by a wide margin.

Both her and Life Is Sweet were against unfavorable paces in their preps - they both got more distance to work with, more pace to set them up, and their trainer had them both peaking at the right time.

Running to competition is sillyness. You don't have to bet very long to figure that out.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Horses don't run to their competiton.

If you put Zenyatta in with claimers ... she would bury them by a wide margin.

Both her and Life Is Sweet were against unfavorable paces in their preps - they both got more distance to work with, more pace to set them up, and their trainer had them both peaking at the right time.

Running to competition is sillyness. You don't have to bet very long to figure that out.

While it is obvious that Zenyatta would bury a bunch of claimers this is an extreme case mind you, jockies ride differently to different races and competition, it's just impossible to know or say II would have beaten Cigar at a different distance and a different time of the day when the track was drying out because conditions and race dynamics were not identical. It has been said Zenyatta does as much as she needs to win, I would surmise Cigar was also this way, to illustrate this I remember Kent D saying once after a race Cigar beat him in about Bailey on Cigar, he could only wonder if Bailey would finally let Cigar go how fast could he really run, but Bailey's thinking was he was looking at the big picture down the road and he only asked what was required of Cigar to win. Hogwash or sincerity it's up to everyone to decide. But I think Cigar was one of those horses who only did what was required of him to win in 95. Looking at Zenyatta after last weekend, one can see a similarity in the 2 styles where beyerwise they may have looked suspect on the surface.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by CSC

While it is obvious that Zenyatta would bury a bunch of claimers this is an extreme case mind you, jockies ride differently to different races and competition, it's just impossible to know or say II would have beaten Cigar at a different distance and a different time of the day when the track was drying out because conditions and race dynamics were not identical. It has been said Zenyatta does as much as she needs to win, I would surmise Cigar was also this way, to illustrate this I remember Kent D saying once after a race Cigar beat him in about Bailey on Cigar, he could only wonder if Bailey would finally let Cigar go how fast could he really run, but Bailey's thinking was he was looking at the big picture down the road and he only asked what was required of Cigar to win. Hogwash or sincerity it's up to everyone to decide. But I think Cigar was one of those horses who only did what was required of him to win in 95. Looking at Zenyatta after last weekend, one can see a similarity in the 2 styles where beyerwise they may have looked suspect on the surface.

Cigar dominated and blew out fields ... Bailey was whipping and driving him in the Classic when he won as well. Cigar was also a very fast speed figure horse... and a very consistant speed figure horse. His competition certainly wasn't much though .. and some real epic female horses were around during his run of dominance.

Don't listen to jockeys ... they are just as brutal as trainers... if not more.

It may not show in win percentages, but Cannon Shell is like the Albert Einstein of horse trainers... and I try my hardest not to listen to him most of the time.