How good is Lava Man?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I really don't need your obvious dissertation on value wagering. Thanks for the effort but I actually understood it going in.

On the other hand, while believe it or not, I probably have a better resume of successful wagering than you, I think when discussing horses on this board it gives a poster more credibility if he or she has stronger opinions and doesn't hedge what they say constantly. That was the point I was making.

And that's the point I was trying to attack. I'm sorry if it came across as personal.

IMO, the whole (handicapping) game is about having carefully formulated opinions. My impression from your posts in this thread was that you equate a "strong" opinion with an extreme opinion. I thought you wanted people to say "A horse is going to win" or "isn't going to win". Those are the kind of statements that I think have little value, and I don't think they give a poster credibility. Quite the contrary.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

All I said was I would be shocked if Lava Man hits the board. I never said I was taking a stand though I am quite sure that come race day I will take a stand that at least somewhat hinges on that opinion ( where it counts...at the betting windows ).

I'm not sure how that differs from what Rupert was doing, which you seemed critical of.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The fact that you have chosen to assault me as though I made some outrageous claims about that opinion is what is actually, to steal a word from your post, ludicrous.

I'm honestly sorry if it came across as an assault on you. I was indeed ticked at the idea that a strong (unhedged?) opinion brings credibility, but I did not mean to make it personal. I could have chosen much better wording.

--Dunbar

[blackthroatedwind]

No problem. To be honest I realized when I was posting the " take a stand " diatribe that it was, in essense, contrary to successful wagering. I was just somewhere between having fun and making a point.

I guess I just feel like in the fairy tale world of the internet it's a little more fun if we have stronger opinions of specific horses and races. It makes the arguments more entertaining. I think the depth of opinions will identify the ones worth paying attention to anyway.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

No problem. To be honest I realized when I was posting the " take a stand " diatribe that it was, in essense, contrary to successful wagering. I was just somewhere between having fun and making a point.

I guess I just feel like in the fairy tale world of the internet it's a little more fun if we have stronger opinions of specific horses and races. It makes the arguments more entertaining. I think the depth of opinions will identify the ones worth paying attention to anyway.

That's totally reasonable. I'm confident we'll have no shortage of strong opinions as we head to the BC. In fact, I'm going to take a stand that there will be more strong opinions voiced than either of us want to read! Man, talk about going out on a limb. ;>)

--Dunbar