Summer Bird could be HOY

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I agree with some of that. But to say he had a nice career is a bit of an understatement. He won the Preakness in his what, 5th career start? He won the Jockey Club Gold Cup and the BC Classic as a 3yo, then trounced the field in the world's richest race.

Very, very few horses show up in February in a 3 year old maiden race and do the things he did the rest of the year. While he didn't beat much at 4, he certainly did at 3.

True but in 1980 that would mean a lot more than now. Winning older horse races in the fall as a 3 yo really isnt much of an accomplishment when the 3 yos are better horses. No one is saying that his career was anything but successful, hell he only finished off the board 1 time but compared to truly accomplished horses he doesnt really stack up that well. Plus the way he tailed off and struggled with clearly inferior horses at the tail end of a 16 race career is telling.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

True but in 1980 that would mean a lot more than now. Winning older horse races in the fall as a 3 yo really isnt much of an accomplishment when the 3 yos are better horses. No one is saying that his career was anything but successful, hell he only finished off the board 1 time but compared to truly accomplished horses he doesnt really stack up that well. Plus the way he tailed off and struggled with clearly inferior horses at the tail end of a 16 race career is telling.

As I said earlier, I wouldn't say he struggled because he was tailing off. In each race, the others obviously knew he was the horse to beat and rode to try to beat him. The pace was very, very slow in the Foster and JCGC and he still overcame it. In the Woodward, it was insanely fast.

You should know margin of victory doesn't always indicate how superior a horse is. Of course, those who think RA can't get 10f based on the results of the Preakness and Woodward are making the same mistake.

[Smooth Operator]

Bush-league call by Jackson

Track will be dry and fair at Anita ... weather will be gorgeous

BIGGEST day on the racing calendar ... multiple international runners suiting up ... and the 'great' filly will be standing around in some barn in KY.

Disgraceful


If Jackson actually believes that the racing surface beat Curlin last year, he simply hasn't come to grips with reality yet.


Would love to see Birdie roll ... and the voters penalize Jackson for not letting the filly compete at the WORLD THOROUGHBRED CHAMPIONSHIPS...

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Smooth Operator

Bush-league call by Jackson

Track will be dry and fair at Anita ... weather will be gorgeous

BIGGEST day on the racing calendar ... multiple international runners suiting up ... and the 'great' filly will be standing around in some barn in KY.

Disgraceful


If Jackson actually believes that the racing surface beat Curlin last year, he simply hasn't come to grips with reality yet.


Would love to see Birdie roll ... and the voters penalize Jackson for not letting the filly compete at the WORLD THOROUGHBRED CHAMPIONSHIPS...

The Breeder's Cup has sabotaged so many formerly great races, I think it is a good thing that a great horse intentionally skips it. It is even better since the BC sabotaged itself by running the races on rubber two years in a row.

Imagine if the first Breeder's Cup had been run on turf, which is a lot closer to synthetics than dirt. Would it have taken off like it did? My guess is no, so why now are we supposed to pretend dirt racing doesn't matter because it is being run on a surface nothing like dirt for two years running?

[gamblin4ever]

Are you sure RA not running in B/C. If Jackson thinks she has HOY sewn up then she wont run, but if there is a chance she loses HOY for not running he might have her run. It's still too early to know.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by gamblin4ever

Are you sure RA not running in B/C. If Jackson thinks she has HOY sewn up then she wont run, but if there is a chance she loses HOY for not running he might have her run. It's still too early to know.

yes, she will NOT be in the BC. If she had been in full training for the month of September I would say I guess there could be a possibility of Jackson changing his mind, but since she has not been in full training she will 100% not be there.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

As I said earlier, I wouldn't say he struggled because he was tailing off. In each race, the others obviously knew he was the horse to beat and rode to try to beat him. The pace was very, very slow in the Foster and JCGC and he still overcame it. In the Woodward, it was insanely fast.

You should know margin of victory doesn't always indicate how superior a horse is. Of course, those who think RA can't get 10f based on the results of the Preakness and Woodward are making the same mistake.

Seriously you believe this? There was some kind of pace conspiracy??? I just thought they rode their slow horses the same way they always did. Honestly as bad as this years older horses were in the Woodward and Gold Cup, last years may very well have been worse. So if they go too slow he has an excuse and when they go fast he has an excuse? I guess we will agree to disagree that his uninspiring performances last fall were questionably inspiring.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Seriously you believe this? There was some kind of pace conspiracy??? I just thought they rode their slow horses the same way they always did. Honestly as bad as this years older horses were in the Woodward and Gold Cup, last years may very well have been worse. So if they go too slow he has an excuse and when they go fast he has an excuse? I guess we will agree to disagree that his uninspiring performances last fall were questionably inspiring.

If you thought that you should probably stick to training.

Honestly, you think a horse that closes off a slow pace and still wins is going to earn the same figures he did when the pace is very fast?

If you and I had a 100 meter race, an we walked 90 meters and I gave you a 5 meter head start, I would probably only beat you by a meter. It doesn't mean I've gotten slower.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

If you thought that you should probably stick to training.

Honestly, you think a horse that closes off a slow pace and still wins is going to earn the same figures he did when the pace is very fast?

If you and I had a 100 meter race, an we walked 90 meters and I gave you a 5 meter head start, I would probably only beat you by a meter. It doesn't mean I've gotten slower.

I never said anything about figures. Just watch the races again. He struggles to catch and put away very weak competition, which is something that he hadnt had trouble with before. In both the Woodward and Gold Cup he cant dispose of Wandering Boy till deep in the lane. In the Woodward they ran the last 1/8th in 14.
If you want to believe that struggling to beat Past the Point and Wandering Boy was because of some sort of pace scenario, that is fine. But when you say he struggled to run past them because the pace was in one case too slow and in one case too fast makes me wonder how it works both ways.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

In both the Woodward and Gold Cup he cant dispose of Wandering Boy till deep in the lane. In the Woodward they ran the last 1/8th in 14.
If you want to believe that struggling to beat Past the Point and Wandering Boy was because of some sort of pace scenario, that is fine.

Wanderin Boy ran a 109 Beyer without any real smoke and mirrors in his start prior to his two meetings with Curlin.

Past The Point ran a 106 in his start prior without any real smoke and mirrors.


Those may not be horses with big resumes - but assuming they run back to those type of sharp races ... it takes an extremely good horse to make wide sweeping turn moves and blow them away with ease.

Compared to a WILDLY overrated horse like Street Sense - and very over rated horses like Any Given Saturday and Hard Spun ... I'd consider Curlin to be only just plain overrated.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I never said anything about figures. Just watch the races again. He struggles to catch and put away very weak competition, which is something that he hadnt had trouble with before. In both the Woodward and Gold Cup he cant dispose of Wandering Boy till deep in the lane. In the Woodward they ran the last 1/8th in 14.
If you want to believe that struggling to beat Past the Point and Wandering Boy was because of some sort of pace scenario, that is fine. But when you say he struggled to run past them because the pace was in one case too slow and in one case too fast makes me wonder how it works both ways.

OK, so how do you explain Zenyatta beating that slug last out by a nose if the slow pace didn't matter?

I'm sorry you don't understand how it can work both ways. It is pretty obvious when you make pace figures for a living. In the Past the Point race, Curlin ran about 10 Beyer points faster to the pace call than he did any other route race in his life to maintain his usual stalking position. Of course he wasn't going to have his usual finishing kick.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

OK, so how do you explain Zenyatta beating that slug last out by a nose if the slow pace didn't matter?

I'm sorry you don't understand how it can work both ways. It is pretty obvious when you make pace figures for a living. In the Past the Point race, Curlin ran about 10 Beyer points faster to the pace call than he did any other route race in his life to maintain his usual stalking position. Of course he wasn't going to have his usual finishing kick.

I wouldn't agree that the obvious hot pace in last year's Woodward really hurt Curlin's chances or led to him running a sub-par race. It only made him finish very slow .. though still faster than how all the others finished.

The 112 Beyer he got in that race was actually outright the 3rd best of his entire career.

Curlin's a naturally fast horse who won his debut wire-to-wire sprinting with a triple digit Beyer ... laying 5.5 lengths off of razor sharp alw horses rolling along up front should hinder them more so than him.

I don't think it's a case like a Point Given in the Ky Derby... because PG didn't have quite the raw speed of a Curlin.

In one extreme example, you're talking about a 3yo going 10fs in May while hung very wide on both turns chasing a scorching fast pace in a huge field very deep in talent.

In the Curlin Woodward example, you're talking about an older horse going 9fs chasing a very strong pace in a smaller field pretty much void of any other real Grade 1 talent.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

OK, so how do you explain Zenyatta beating that slug last out by a nose if the slow pace didn't matter?

I'm sorry you don't understand how it can work both ways. It is pretty obvious when you make pace figures for a living. In the Past the Point race, Curlin ran about 10 Beyer points faster to the pace call than he did any other route race in his life to maintain his usual stalking position. Of course he wasn't going to have his usual finishing kick.

Zenyatta is an out the back of the pack dead closer. Curlin wasnt.

While I can understand that he didnt have his usual closing kick, he barely had enough to outfinish the horse who set that wicked pace.

All I am saying is that Curlin was not nearly as great as his overzealous owner and fans seem to think and that his less than fantastic final race lowered his stature enough that he has already seemingly been passed by RA.