Summer Bird pointed for The BC

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by CSC

Atleast this may force Jess Jackson to rethink his fall plans, I think SB can force his hand. Winning the Belmont-Travers-JCGC-BC Classic is a very strong case for HOY.

IF and its not a mortal lock IMO.. Rachel wins the Woodward there is absolutely no chance for any horse to win HOY except her. And she's already drowned Summer Bird.

SB could win the Super Derby, JCGC, Goodwood, BCClassic and the Clark and he still wouldnt get HOY if she wins the Woodward.

Granted SB is a huge bet against in the classic but I would give him a shot in the JCGC. He's the frontrunner for 3yo Colt award but there's only one horse even in the running for HOY at this point.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

IF and its not a mortal lock IMO.. Rachel wins the Woodward there is absolutely no chance for any horse to win HOY except her. And she's already drowned Summer Bird.

SB could win the Super Derby, JCGC, Goodwood, BCClassic and the Clark and he still wouldnt get HOY if she wins the Woodward.

Granted SB is a huge bet against in the classic but I would give him a shot in the JCGC. He's the frontrunner for 3yo Colt award but there's only one horse even in the running for HOY at this point.

For argument's sake:

Significant accomplishments

RA wins:
K. Oaks
Preakness
Haskell

SB:
Belmont win
Haskell placed.
Travers win

With a possible 2 races to go for each is RA's lead really that secure? Objectively speaking...

BTW I didn't include the Mother Goose, I agree she is the top filly for The Eclipse award and she only faced a 3 horse field, however impressive her beyer was. I am concentrating on the HOY discussion part of it.

[Revidere]

It's a foregone conclusion that Summer Bird will beat Zenyatta in California. His beyers are higher.

As for Rachel; if she wins the Woodward, it looks like she's done for the year.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...after-woodward

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Revidere

It's a foregone conclusion that Summer Bird will beat Zenyatta in California. His beyers are higher.

As for Rachel; if she wins the Woodward, it looks like she's done for the year.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...after-woodward

he can't enter the distaff!

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by Revidere

It's a foregone conclusion that Summer Bird will beat Zenyatta in California. His beyers are higher.

As for Rachel; if she wins the Woodward, it looks like she's done for the year.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...after-woodward

Based on what?...Summer Bird has no beyers showing for synthetic tracks....

[CSC]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Based on what?...Summer Bird has no beyers showing for synthetic tracks....

And so does Rachel Alexandra, but atleast he is going to be put in a position to possibly fail, to me that is far more admiral than not trying at all. Everyone keeps assuming RA will not be good on pro ride, the fact is no one knows for sure and here we are with the biggest star in the game absent on the biggest day of racing.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by CSC

And so does Rachel Alexandra, but atleast he is going to be put in a position to possibly fail, to me that is far more admiral than not trying at all. Everyone keeps assuming RA will not be good on pro ride, the fact is no one knows for sure and here we are with the biggest star in the game absent on the biggest day of racing.

I see no reason to believe RA will sux on Pro Ride. DrugS seems to think that she will be slaughtered on it but that is based on her trainers lack of success and not RA. Jess wants to make a statement and he wants to use his prize to make it.. At this point I could careless eitherway. Once she wins the Woodward and Beldame ,with or without, Zenyatta she will have stamped her ticket. Assuming she wins both those two races she will be forever known as one of the very best race horses to ever run. This is not to say she is the greatest of all time or even the very best filly, just one of a select group of animals that depict the best the breed has to offer.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I see no reason to believe RA will sux on Pro Ride. DrugS seems to think that she will be slaughtered on it but that is based on her trainers lack of success and not RA. Jess wants to make a statement and he wants to use his prize to make it.. At this point I could careless eitherway. Once she wins the Woodward and Beldame ,with or without, Zenyatta she will have stamped her ticket. Assuming she wins both those two races she will be forever known as one of the very best race horses to ever run. This is not to say she is the greatest of all time or even the very best filly, just one of a select group of animals that depict the best the breed has to offer.

You bring up a good point of discussion, since the inception of the BC, has there ever been a horse considered great without running in it? Even if they didn't win.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I see no reason to believe RA will sux on Pro Ride. DrugS seems to think that she will be slaughtered on it but that is based on her trainers lack of success and not RA.

Not just the overwhelming Asmussen on synthetics issue ... but her style could not possibly be suited any worse for any kind of distance/surface combo than a 10 furlong race on that Santa Anita pro ride.

Hystericalady was without question the best two-turn dirt female last year. She was 0-for-6 lifetime on synthetics, squandered several dream trips over it, and even once sunk bridgejumpers on it.

Here's the dirt route form she had in her PP's going into the Distaff ...





As you can see, she has the same identical style as RA. Excellent natural speed - and a dominant burst between the quarter pole and eigth pole that breaks open races. In the only loss, a narrow defeat in the BC Distaff, she was open lengths best while four to five wide both turns on a hot pace and just missing to a dream trip winner.

Fabulous Strike .. same thing .. excellent speed but his dominant section has always been from the quarter pole to the eigth pole. It's Munnings best part of a race as well. Those two disgraced themselves in last years BC and won't be going back.

Look at Past the Point, speed horse with dominance through that section on dirt .. can't hit the board at Golden Gate on synthetic.

It's obviously not just stakes horses with that style who mostly struggle bad on syn .. it's all types.

It's different kind of racing. If Curlin's in 8th place while 9 lengths off of 47.60 and 1:11.60 dirt fractions .. he might finish 4th .. but he's losing to 3 horses positioned WELL in front of him. He's not having 3 horses blow by him in the stretch while finishing totally empty.


Because of the overwhelming Asmussen thing, I'd be dead against RA in that race if her style suited the track and distance perfectly.

But Rail Trip won his debut wire-to-wire going 6 furlongs over synthetic with a triple digit Beyer... she's got to hook him, she's got to deal with the fact that her best weapon .. an explosive burst off the turn .. almost certainly won't work at all. She's got to deal with the fact that Asmussen horses run light years better on dirt than synthetic.

I haven't bet against her once this year ... but if she runs in the Classic she's a monumental bet against ... and I don't think she goes down like a warrior slugging it out for 3rd with a Tiago type and just getting the worst of that show battle. I think she gets beat 20 or 30 lengths and runs way too bad to be true.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by CSC

And so does Rachel Alexandra, but atleast he is going to be put in a position to possibly fail, to me that is far more admiral than not trying at all. Everyone keeps assuming RA will not be good on pro ride, the fact is no one knows for sure and here we are with the biggest star in the game absent on the biggest day of racing.

no one said they thought she would be bad on it. jackson doesn't like the stuff, and doesn't like how horses go over it. he may also not like how his trainer does regarding the stuff....

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Danzig

no one said they thought she would be bad on it. jackson doesn't like the stuff, and doesn't like how horses go over it. he may also not like how his trainer does regarding the stuff....

What's so bad about it if your horse can run over it and she comes home safe. Unless you are worried.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by CSC

For argument's sake:

Significant accomplishments

RA wins:
K. Oaks
Preakness
Haskell

SB:
Belmont win
Haskell placed.
Travers win

With a possible 2 races to go for each is RA's lead really that secure? Objectively speaking...

BTW I didn't include the Mother Goose, I agree she is the top filly for The Eclipse award and she only faced a 3 horse field, however impressive her beyer was. I am concentrating on the HOY discussion part of it.

you just cant throw out her other wins and the margin of victory and the final times which have been spectacular except for the Preakness.. tho it was still okay.

its not even close at this point. like not at all. If voting happened today she'd get every single vote for HOY unless someone had a real crazy agenda. The only way it becomes close is if Rachel loses TWO or more races and Summer bird wins the JCGC and the BC Classic... which he will not win.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

you just cant throw out her other wins and the margin of victory and the final times which have been spectacular except for the Preakness.. tho it was still okay.

its not even close at this point. like not at all. If voting happened today she'd get every single vote for HOY unless someone had a real crazy agenda. The only way it becomes close is if Rachel loses TWO or more races and Summer bird wins the JCGC and the BC Classic... which he will not win.

If Rachel is less than overwhelming in the Woodward, Summer Bird whips the same bunch in the Gold Cup and wins the classic I think he will have a legit chance at HOY. If RA were to lose the Woodward and SB was to win out I dont think it would even be a contest.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

If Rachel is less than overwhelming in the Woodward, Summer Bird whips the same bunch in the Gold Cup and wins the classic I think he will have a legit chance at HOY. If RA were to lose the Woodward and SB was to win out I dont think it would even be a contest.

???

She can win by a nose and the vote is secured. It already is IMO even if she loses.


this is all a moot point as a Euro will be winning our "dirt" classic for the second year. Shoot they can send a Grade 2 type horse over an win the classic.

[tector]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

???

She can win by a nose and the vote is secured. It already is IMO even if she loses.


this is all a moot point as a Euro will be winning our "dirt" classic for the second year. Shoot they can send a Grade 2 type horse over an win the classic.

What's the matter with you--aren't consumed with jealousy, errr, hatred of Jess Jackson like all REAL posters here?

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by tector

What's the matter with you--aren't consumed with jealousy, errr, hatred of Jess Jackson like all REAL posters here?

Jess Jackson is the only super rich man left with any courage these days.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

If Rachel is less than overwhelming in the Woodward, Summer Bird whips the same bunch in the Gold Cup and wins the classic I think he will have a legit chance at HOY. If RA were to lose the Woodward and SB was to win out I dont think it would even be a contest.

The thing is regardless of how much we want to make of this 3 yr old filly vs older males, this isn't an overwhelming bunch of horses. Unless she wins in spectacular fashion I don't see the huge significance, it's not like Goldikova winning the Arc when she beat the best field of European horses over there, she would be beating a group of horses that are no better than tier 2 horses over here. I understand the historical significance but I really don't understand the glam factor the public is making of this. So she beats Macho or Pass The Point. Nice but awe inspiring no.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by CSC

So she beats Macho or Pass The Point. Nice but awe inspiring no.

I mean, I get what your point is, even though I vehemently disagree -- but you're definitely right here...not every race can be filled with quality foes like Dunkirk and Hold Me Back, right?

[Gander]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I mean, I get what your point is, even though I vehemently disagree -- but you're definitely right here...not every race can be filled with quality foes like Dunkirk and Hold Me Back, right?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I mean, I get what your point is, even though I vehemently disagree -- but you're definitely right here...not every race can be filled with quality foes like Dunkirk and Hold Me Back, right?

Well a win over It's a Bird who I might add will be the wiseguy choice fresh off the Wolfson 'Icon affect' or plugger Macho Again who would be hard pressed to beat 'I need the universe and stars to align' Mine That Bird is certainly better than a win over Quality Road or 'I need the universe and stars to align' Mine That Bird. What's wrong with Dunkirk? I remember during this years Derby many of the Beyer disciples were picking him. We know they are rarely wrong...