6/11 - Hol R5

[hockey2315]

I agree that the 7 looks like a HUGE standout - that's why I don't understand why he's 8-1 according to DRF's line and not a single handicapper on the grid picks him to hit the board (something I look at only to determine what kind of odds I might get). His final quarters in two of his last three are :22.28 and :22.63 - with that kind of closing kick and all the speed in here it looks like he should walk. The 10 looks intriguing to me too, but they have him listed as the favorite, which wouldn't surprise me.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I agree that the 7 looks like a HUGE standout - that's why I don't understand why he's 8-1 according to DRF's line and not a single handicapper on the grid picks him to hit the board (something I look at only to determine what kind of odds I might get). His final quarters in two of his last three are :22.28 and :22.63 - with that kind of closing kick and all the speed in here it looks like he should walk. The 10 looks intriguing to me too, but they have him listed as the favorite, which wouldn't surprise me.

I would be shocked if he went of anywhere close to 8-1.

[CSC]

Doesn't Ezpinoza usually ride Dick Mandella's best horses?

[Stickhorse]

This race too caught my attention and the Mandella horse, #7, was the one that I was immediately drawn to. The late pick four looks as challenging as any.

Here is the ML:
1) 20
2) 6
3) 6
4) 12
5) 8
6) 6
7) 5
8) 12
9) 7/2
10) 9/2

I'll most likely key Meteore to some others in an exacta. My guess on the likely odds is 3/1 because as you say lots of horses certainly have merit. Need a little more PP time.

I'll be watching TVG closely looking for some body language clues listening for additional hints from possible paddock interviews.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I agree that the 7 looks like a HUGE standout - that's why I don't understand why he's 8-1 according to DRF's line and not a single handicapper on the grid picks him to hit the board (something I look at only to determine what kind of odds I might get). His final quarters in two of his last three are :22.28 and :22.63 - with that kind of closing kick and all the speed in here it looks like he should walk. The 10 looks intriguing to me too, but they have him listed as the favorite, which wouldn't surprise me.

Clearly, he figures to get a good setup, but with the exception of his last race, he appears to be the type of horse that can only win with a perfect trip. There seems to not only be enough speed in the race but also a number of pressers so, on paper, at least, the race figures to collapse. Funny how often that doesn't work out exactly on the CALI turf.

[CSC]

I will take a look once I am off work, I'm a little interested in Hockey's comment regarding Paddy The Pro, clearly they saw something they liked to have started him in the BC Juv Turf.

[NTamm1215]

Paddy the Pro was a big backstretch buzz horse during BC week. He is a really nice looking horse but the big concern that existed with him prior to the BC still does- no one knows if he's any good on turf.

NT

[CSC]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Paddy the Pro was a big backstretch buzz horse during BC week. He is a really nice looking horse but the big concern that existed with him prior to the BC still does- no one knows if he's any good on turf.

NT

It gets more interesting, I would trust Paddy Gallagher to be an astute horseman then my question is he is surrounded by synthetic tracks in California but yet he tries turf again. Umm...

[the_fat_man]

I'm going to try Rainbow Goose, if I get my price: >= 10:1.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I'm going to try Rainbow Goose, if I get my price: >= 10:1.

Aren't you worried about the field he beat last time? I could only bet this horse if he was switching to a serious move-up guy, which he's not, because his last doesn't put him anywhere close to these. And I know what you're saying about Meteore looking like he needs a perfect trip to win, but I think any of his last three put him right there and he almost HAS to trip out with all the stretch-outs and speed horses. I wouldn't bet him at 2-1, but his 5-1 ML looks good to me.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I'm going to try Rainbow Goose, if I get my price: >= 10:1.

How do you think they finish if the 2 doesn't miss the break?

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by CSC

It gets more interesting, I would trust Paddy Gallagher to be an astute horseman then my question is he is surrounded by synthetic tracks in California but yet he tries turf again. Umm...

Does anyone know if Gallagher usually works his horses really slow? This one has shown absolutely nothing in the mornings speed wise but he has been working regularly enough. He's the type I'd consider taking a chance on or at least using only if he were to take some early money.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Does anyone know if Gallagher usually works his horses really slow? This one has shown absolutely nothing in the mornings speed wise but he has been working regularly enough. He's the type I'd consider taking a chance on or at least using only if he were to take some early money.

From what I recall he rarely has eye popping drills and considering he is mostly renouned as a turf trainer that makes sense. I will take a closer look later but knowing Gallagher's pattern's it wouldn't surprise me if he ran well, I recall another horse that had no turf wins in Europe but AW wins but a trainer started him/her on turf and the horse won at Hol-SA? Unfortunately I don't recall if the trainer was Paddy...

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Paddy the Pro was a big backstretch buzz horse during BC week. He is a really nice looking horse but the big concern that existed with him prior to the BC still does- no one knows if he's any good on turf.

NT

Does it concern anyone that he is the only one in for the tag?