6/11 - Hol R5
 

I think this may be a good race to discuss as a group. It's an optional claimer N1X on the turf going 8.5F for 3 y.o. colts. I find it interesting because you have lots of different angles to try to decipher.

The morning line isn't out yet, but I'll post it when it's up on DRF.

#1 El Scorpio - T. Baze - Yakteem - broke his maiden at 6F at SA in a 75K MCL in March - came back in May at this level but in a sprint on the main track and ran a dull 6th

#2 Rainbow Goose - Rosario - Carava - debuted in a dirt sprint at Tampa and did nothing - dropped down to a $50K claimer on the turf and romped by 10 1/2 vs. a pretty dismal bunch. Looks like he was privately purchased after that one and will be running for the first time for trainer Jack Carava.

#3 Tiger Blitz - Garcia - Cerin - another trying turf for the first time - returned in May after finishing 7th in the G1 Norfolk last year - ran 2nd in an allowance at this distance on the cushion track.

#4 Paddy the Pro - Solis - Gallagher - First time he has surfaced after finishing last in last year's BC Juvenile Turf. He was a bit of a wise guy horse in that race, despite no wins past 6F and none on turf racing exclusively in Ireland.

#5 Brushburn - Talamo - Abrams - Calbred is another stretching out, switching surfaces, and returning off of a lay-off since September 1st of '08. Won his debut for a $100K tag and then finished 4th in a state-bred stakes race at Del Mar.

#6 Del Conte - Nakatani - Baffert - Front-runner's most noteworthy performance was a fourth place finish in the Norfolk last year. Broke his maiden prior to that going 8F on turf and since the Norfolk has finished 9th and 3rd at the same distance on turf.

#7 Meteore - Bejarano - Mandella - Finally broke his maiden last out in early April in his 6th try going 8F on the turf. Has closed very fast in his last 3 and shows a few 7F drills for this.

#8 Dapper Gene - Valdivia - Velasquez - Relatively obscure trainer Danny Velasquez adds blinkers for this gelding who was beaten by the 6 and 9 in his last. Broke his maiden in a turf sprint at Santa Anita 3 back and since then has finished 5th in the La Puente S. and 4th last out - both at 8F on the turf.

#9 Santamonicacanyon - Gomez - Vienna - Finished 2nd in his first turf try going 8F - beaten 1 1/2 lengths by Kelly Leak, who went on to win the surprisingly key Sunland Derby in his next start. This horse also ran in the Sunland Derby finishing 8th in his only dirt attempt. The SD has produced 5 next-out winners including Mine that Bird. In his most recent outing, SMC was beaten by one of those five - Mark S The Cooler going 8F on the turf in a race that also featured Dapper Gene and Del Conte.

#10 - Cleisthenes - Smith - Sadler - Mystery horse makes his stateside debut after a 6 length maiden win at odds of 1/2 going 6F on Brighton's (GB) turf course last month. He received an 88 Racing Post rating for that effort, but the quality of that field may be suspect. He shows a bullet 4F drill on the turf here at Hollywood for new trainer John Sadler.

I have a very strong opinion in this race, but want to hear what other people think first. . .

Hockey, it seems like there is enough speed in the race that it should set it up for someone coming out of the clouds.
The 7 seems like the captain obvious horse for me, but will probably offer no value.

I personally think that the 10 is intriguing. I'm usually not big on horses making their first start from overseas. But this one has a few things I like. Owns a win on the turf, a good work on the course, gets Lasix and a few lbs off. I am thinking he might be a price and he went off odds on in his debut. Not to mention that he might have the right running style for this race by coming late.
But it is a great race to discuss and angles can be made for most of the field.

But that's my 2 cents.

I agree that the 7 looks like a HUGE standout - that's why I don't understand why he's 8-1 according to DRF's line and not a single handicapper on the grid picks him to hit the board (something I look at only to determine what kind of odds I might get). His final quarters in two of his last three are :22.28 and :22.63 - with that kind of closing kick and all the speed in here it looks like he should walk. The 10 looks intriguing to me too, but they have him listed as the favorite, which wouldn't surprise me.

I would be shocked if he went of anywhere close to 8-1.

Doesn't Ezpinoza usually ride Dick Mandella's best horses?

Clearly, he figures to get a good setup, but with the exception of his last race, he appears to be the type of horse that can only win with a perfect trip. There seems to not only be enough speed in the race but also a number of pressers so, on paper, at least, the race figures to collapse. Funny how often that doesn't work out exactly on the CALI turf.

This race too caught my attention and the Mandella horse, #7, was the one that I was immediately drawn to. The late pick four looks as challenging as any.

Here is the ML:
1) 20
2) 6
3) 6
4) 12
5) 8
6) 6
7) 5
8) 12
9) 7/2
10) 9/2

I'll most likely key Meteore to some others in an exacta. My guess on the likely odds is 3/1 because as you say lots of horses certainly have merit. Need a little more PP time.

I'll be watching TVG closely looking for some body language clues listening for additional hints from possible paddock interviews.

I will take a look once I am off work, I'm a little interested in Hockey's comment regarding Paddy The Pro, clearly they saw something they liked to have started him in the BC Juv Turf.

Paddy the Pro was a big backstretch buzz horse during BC week. He is a really nice looking horse but the big concern that existed with him prior to the BC still does- no one knows if he's any good on turf.

NT

It gets more interesting, I would trust Paddy Gallagher to be an astute horseman then my question is he is surrounded by synthetic tracks in California but yet he tries turf again. Umm...

I'm going to try Rainbow Goose, if I get my price: >= 10:1.

Aren't you worried about the field he beat last time? I could only bet this horse if he was switching to a serious move-up guy, which he's not, because his last doesn't put him anywhere close to these. And I know what you're saying about Meteore looking like he needs a perfect trip to win, but I think any of his last three put him right there and he almost HAS to trip out with all the stretch-outs and speed horses. I wouldn't bet him at 2-1, but his 5-1 ML looks good to me.

Does anyone know if Gallagher usually works his horses really slow? This one has shown absolutely nothing in the mornings speed wise but he has been working regularly enough. He's the type I'd consider taking a chance on or at least using only if he were to take some early money.

If I get a price, I'll try him. His figures might not be good enough but he was under pressure throughout, plugs or not, they pressed him, in decent fractions, and then drew off easily, while running very greenly, and accelerating the last 1/8th and qtr. I'm counting on his footwork being better today. Of course, he's also up against it if (his jockey feels that) he needs the lead.

From what I recall he rarely has eye popping drills and considering he is mostly renouned as a turf trainer that makes sense. I will take a closer look later but knowing Gallagher's pattern's it wouldn't surprise me if he ran well, I recall another horse that had no turf wins in Europe but AW wins but a trainer started him/her on turf and the horse won at Hol-SA? Unfortunately I don't recall if the trainer was Paddy...

Does it concern anyone that he is the only one in for the tag?

paddythepro is scratched according to nj bets

Sadler's charge as well. (#10)

Well this $ucks, good discussion regardless of examining possible handicapping angles.

Well I guess the race becomes far less interesting with those two out. . .