If we assume that PC and IWR were "latent" dirt horses spinning their wheels (albeit very quickly) on the synthetics, why can we not make the leap of faith that POTN might be also?
Were the improvements shown by PC and IWR surface driven or just the progression of good 3yo's improving well under good care? When you take into account that some players who use and analyze figs feel that Beyers are about 4-5 points too low on Syth, in general, them those two colts really didn't leap forward very much.
I understand that handicappers are negative on POTN in part because they have no data on which to assess him as a Derby horse with the surface switch. If this was one of last season's leading Euro 2yo's and he was coming to the KY Derby we'd be faced with the same challenge. We'd have to do what we always do. What are the trainer's stats with this move? Has he done this before? How is the horse bred? Does his running style suit the switch? Most of all, what is an acceptable price relative to risk?
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RIP Monroe.
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04-15-2009, 11:15 AM
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