Dunkirk

[Bobby Fischer]

is Dunkirk brilliant ? = not so far

is Dunkirk overrated ? = by a lot of people

Did Dunkirk face the full effect of 9furlong Gulfstream wide 1st turn bias ? = No, a decent inside speed did not save all the ground , loom a winning threat , get a breather, & force the "outside horse" to challenge a fresh rival on the 2nd turn.

Can a healthy reasonable trip Dunkirk run 9 furlongs in less than 1:50 ? = yes

Can anyone else ? = If he doesn't tire badly Quality Road, and maybe possibly Beethoven on his best day... JoJo= hellNoNo


That is basically where i'm at with this. I know it's fashionable to over-think reasons why a popular favorite who hasn't run a brilliant race is going to lose. And I know Quality Road ran a brilliant 1-turn mile...
Sometimes solid beats spectacular in a 9 or 10 furlong race. Sometimes spectacular milers suck at 9 furlongs. I'm rooting for one of them to run the kind of race that stamps them the derby favorite. I could care less which one, but Dunkirk appears most likely to win here. His normal race wins, while I don't see Quality Road loving the stretch out as "normal" - QR could quit just as likely as he could romp.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

t pleach has never delivered a killer for the derby.. but if used as a prep as it should dunkirk may get into and peak at the right time . i like the horse and hope he does well.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GghCs...eature=related

dunkirk..

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

t pleach has never delivered a killer for the derby.. but if used as a prep as it should dunkirk may get into and peak at the right time . i like the horse and hope he does well.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GghCs...eature=related

dunkirk..

Nice Matt!

only North American appearance - 4/2 Ft. Lauderdale

http://www.ironmaiden.com/index.php?...articleid=1098

must be an omen

[philcski]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

t pleach has never delivered a killer for the derby.. but if used as a prep as it should dunkirk may get into and peak at the right time . i like the horse and hope he does well.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GghCs...eature=related

dunkirk..

the problem is he can't use it as a prep in the format you are referring to... he is in the big brown/smarty jones conundrum of one shot to get enough graded earnings to get in the gate. 3rd won't be good enough.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by philcski

the problem is he can't use it as a prep in the format you are referring to... he is in the big brown/smarty jones conundrum of one shot to get enough graded earnings to get in the gate. 3rd won't be good enough.

if he moves forward as he should and the jerkins horse blows his wad or fails to be so brilliant..he should do well in the derby if he gets in..hes ped and connections are not junk..

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

t pleach has never delivered a killer for the derby.. but if used as a prep as it should dunkirk may get into and peak at the right time . i like the horse and hope he does well.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GghCs...eature=related

dunkirk..

I don't know how much of 'just a prep' it can be, considering he probably has to win to get the earnings.

[SniperSB23]

Hopefully Pletcher's rabbit works as well as Bishop Court Hill and Spanish Chestnut did.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Hopefully Pletcher's rabbit works as well as Bishop Court Hill and Spanish Chestnut did.

Actually, Spanish Chestnut did his job in the Derby (6F in 1:09 and change), setting the race up for a closer (Giacomo). Bandini didn't hold up his part of the bargain.

[parsixfarms]

Let's not forget that Pletcher tried the same thing in the 2002 Florida Derby with Smooth Jazz, as a rabbit for Nokoma. He ended up setting the race up for Harlan's Holiday.

[Travis Stone]

Who goes favored: Quality Road or Dunkirk?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Actually, Spanish Chestnut did his job in the Derby (6F in 1:09 and change), setting the race up for a closer (Giacomo). Bandini didn't hold up his part of the bargain.

Bandini never was a closer. He won his first two races wire-to-wire and stalked the paces from fairly up close in the FoY and Blue Grass.

I think Spanish Chestnut was used more to make things harder for favorite Bellamy Road than to help his stablemate.

Just as Bishop Court Hill was used to more make things harder for Lava Man than it was to help out Flower Alley - who also wasn't a closer.

Same with Lukas running Camanche Trail as a rabbit more to hurt Holy Bull than help a stalker like Tabasco Cat.

The rabbit flatters setup closers like Giacomo, Borrego, and Concern ... and can hurt the stalking types almost as much as the seemingly need-the-lead speed horses.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Bandini never was a closer. He won his first two races wire-to-wire and stalked the paces from fairly up close in the FoY and Blue Grass.

I think Spanish Chestnut was used more to make things harder for favorite Bellamy Road than to help his stablemate.

I agree that Bandini (also owned by Tabor but with Pletcher instead of Biancone) was never a one-run closer. However, to my way of thinking, given the pace that developed, Bandini was nearer the pace in the Derby (a race that eventually fell apart) than I would have expected with the tactics being employed by Spanish Chestnut.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I'm not thrilled with Dunkirk.

i agree, if he wins this week i'll change my view. but i think its a chump bet to take a short price on this horse in the FLA derby. he has not beaten much but that could change. i look for value not the bandwagon.

[Thunder Gulch]

I wish I could get odds against Dunkirk starting in the Derby.

[Linny]

Todd is up against it here as he'd probably like to treat this as a "prep" or stepping stone, but in fact he needs to win in order to get to the Derby. His only other option is to tighten up and run back in the Lexington. That race doesn't usually come up that tough, but a 3 week to 2 week schedule is not Todd's modus operandi.
For still more irony, how about if Take the Points or Al Khali or Join in the Dance end up with enough graded earning to get in and they keep Dunkirk out? It's not likely that Starlight Partners (which has a stated goal of developing 3yo classic colts) would pass on the Derby. (Geez, the same folks sent Keyed Entry.)
You have to assume that horses owned by commercial partnerships (West Point. Starlight etc) will go if able. You also have to guess that any client of Todd's that has a Derby eligible colt will want to go and not step aside so Todd can win his first Derby with another guys horse.