Mott playing games with us?

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I agree with Spence that Z Fortune might be a "wiseguy" sheet horse if his "pattern" looks well.

Z Fortune got a bigger sheet number in the Risen Star than Pyro did - because he was one path wider on both turns (2 lengths total) and there was a 6 pound weight spread at 8.5 furlongs (which equals 2.04 lengths total)

Thus - Pyro won the race by 2 lengths over Z Fortune - but Z Fortune's sheet figure came back slightly over 2 lengths faster.

The problem with that is that Z Fortune was wide behind a slow pace and in the clear - where as Pyro was buried in last behind a crawl of a pace - and the race pretty much became a 2 furlong sprint with Pyro conceding a head start to the rest of the field and having to slice his way though the pack.

Z Fortune is a horse who's chances I can't totally bash and trash - I just don't like them though.

Originally Posted by Scav

Brian, Maybe I am a wise guy then??@!/?

Scav -- I like the horse a bit, based on everything I've seen and everything I've heard. He's definitely not my favorite, but just from where I'm sitting, he just has that feel to me, much like SNS two years ago. Obviously they came in differently, but he is just starting to seem like that horse that everyone is talking about, projecting a good race in his next, loving his AR Derby and saying it was better than it looked -- if the horse runs a lick in a workout over the CD surface you can kiss a fair price goodbye. Happens every year, and I'm just getting a gut feeling that he's your guy this year. His wins have by and large come with sickeningly sweet setups, and that's my main knock on him, but his style is right and he's going to be one of the go-to horses for sheet players.