handicapping 101 big days..on track

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by wac

The problem i have on days like KD is that once i get that awful 1st mint juliup down the 2nd,3rd,4th...........14th go down so smooth and it helps put me in a festive mood. i cap pretty hard the night before so i already have a pretty good idea who im betting on but still pay attention enough to see the odds and if somthing jumps out at me i'll play it. Worked with Giacomo, Bluegrass cat and hard spun horses whose odds just didn't seem right with what i thought i knew. Or hell, maybe i was just hammered and got lucky. I know i did with Giacomo but the other 2s odds just didnt seem right at post time too me. Dammit it wouldn't be KD if i didn't get smashed on those awful friggin mint juilups. That new drink they have had the past couple of year think its called a lilly with cranberry, vodka some 7up and some blueberries in it is pretty damn tasty as well. Man i can't wait!!!!

I take Thursday off of work every year before the Derby trip to spend all day capping Friday and Saturday. As the week goes by, I check the charts to see how the track is playing so I take a measure against a developing bias. I typically start Saturday off playing the first two or three races , then bet the entire card by the 4th so I can avoid the lines and not let any bad beat change my play.